OSINT Mercury @osint_mercury
Compiling open source intelligence, providing analysis, making rash predictions about future conflicts. Joined November 2023-
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I agree, the goal is never to use nuclear weapons, but instead to create a complex environment of deterrence such that there is too much uncertainty in the outcome of war that no great power can tolerate large scale conflict And it may be the case that providing some allies with…
I agree, the goal is never to use nuclear weapons, but instead to create a complex environment of deterrence such that there is too much uncertainty in the outcome of war that no great power can tolerate large scale conflict And it may be the case that providing some allies with…
Everywhere you look, you find the same failures, in the biggest programs F-35 Sentinel Columbia Constellation Multiple $100B - $1T programs way late and way over cost How many anecdotes does it take to reveal a trend Not including programs like Zumwalt, LCS, Bradley…
Everywhere you look, you find the same failures, in the biggest programs F-35 Sentinel Columbia Constellation Multiple $100B - $1T programs way late and way over cost How many anecdotes does it take to reveal a trend Not including programs like Zumwalt, LCS, Bradley…
I’m not at all committed to this idea, but I do think its debatable: Encouraging nuclear development for a few key players (Japan, South Korea, Poland), rather than nuclear sharing (which is more effective without a US No First Use policy) might both reduce the likelihood of…
I’m not at all committed to this idea, but I do think its debatable: Encouraging nuclear development for a few key players (Japan, South Korea, Poland), rather than nuclear sharing (which is more effective without a US No First Use policy) might both reduce the likelihood of…
A “No First Use” policy still maintains deterrence against nuclear threats, just not conventional war - Irrespective of whether it’s a good policy or not (because policy holds little weight in wartime)
A “No First Use” policy still maintains deterrence against nuclear threats, just not conventional war - Irrespective of whether it’s a good policy or not (because policy holds little weight in wartime)
The Iranian claim of ~1 week nuclear latency is more plausible than a 3-4x leap in ballistic missile range, without any tests that hit intermediate milestones, that is being claimed now x.com/sentdefender/s…
Exactly Even if it were to turn out that the China threat was overinflated: > that corruption was greater and more crippling than expected >that their combat inexperience rendered their forces or leadership ineffective > that their domestic morale and will for conflict was…
Exactly Even if it were to turn out that the China threat was overinflated: > that corruption was greater and more crippling than expected >that their combat inexperience rendered their forces or leadership ineffective > that their domestic morale and will for conflict was…
As far as the autonomous dimension of this - navigating air space is a lot less complex for computer vision and AI control systems than maneuvering on land This is evident when comparing the progress of self driving cars to autonomous UAS Training models to lane keep or avoid…
As far as the autonomous dimension of this - navigating air space is a lot less complex for computer vision and AI control systems than maneuvering on land This is evident when comparing the progress of self driving cars to autonomous UAS Training models to lane keep or avoid…
You’d also do that if you were planning for a protracted conflict where you would lose easy access to many of the materials needed to sustain that war effort.
You’d also do that if you were planning for a protracted conflict where you would lose easy access to many of the materials needed to sustain that war effort.
The tonnage for USN is skewed heavily by carriers The inflection point is not when PLAN = USN tonnage, it’s when PLAN = the Pacific fleet + Japanese Navy China does not need nearly as many carriers or large surface combatants as the US. The entirety of the first Island chain is…
The tonnage for USN is skewed heavily by carriers The inflection point is not when PLAN = USN tonnage, it’s when PLAN = the Pacific fleet + Japanese Navy China does not need nearly as many carriers or large surface combatants as the US. The entirety of the first Island chain is…
1. If you only allocate resources based on conflicts that are already underway, you are setting yourself up for failure 2. These conflicts are not the same in their strategic importance, geography, p(victory), and so on. The most important difference between these two…
1. If you only allocate resources based on conflicts that are already underway, you are setting yourself up for failure 2. These conflicts are not the same in their strategic importance, geography, p(victory), and so on. The most important difference between these two…
Opportunity Cost Too many in the West seem to think that money and resources are infinite Upstream of whether the specific weapon systems sent to Ukraine are needed in Taiwan (they are), the money used to acquire/produce such weapons is needed everywhere, and is finite
Opportunity Cost Too many in the West seem to think that money and resources are infinite Upstream of whether the specific weapon systems sent to Ukraine are needed in Taiwan (they are), the money used to acquire/produce such weapons is needed everywhere, and is finite
👇 Iran has a fraction of China’s missile inventory, and China’s is far more advanced. Israel is a small country. And we were tipped off. Plus we spent $1.5 billion on it. Not a reason for comfort in Asia.
👇 Iran has a fraction of China’s missile inventory, and China’s is far more advanced. Israel is a small country. And we were tipped off. Plus we spent $1.5 billion on it. Not a reason for comfort in Asia.
When China moves on Taiwan, US leadership will frantically pivot to reprioritize Taiwan over other interests… And they will find it impossible to provide material support to the island nation at that time If your leadership is only capable of learning in retrospect, and is…
When China moves on Taiwan, US leadership will frantically pivot to reprioritize Taiwan over other interests… And they will find it impossible to provide material support to the island nation at that time If your leadership is only capable of learning in retrospect, and is…
There is much to learn from the efficacy of Israeli and USN air defenses in recent months - and Japan should certainly prioritize AD above almost all else However nowhere near the same level of success will be achieved against PLARF Realistic expectations from SDF and PACOM…
There is much to learn from the efficacy of Israeli and USN air defenses in recent months - and Japan should certainly prioritize AD above almost all else However nowhere near the same level of success will be achieved against PLARF Realistic expectations from SDF and PACOM…
2/ Though Israel succeeded this time, the cost equation does not bode well if the battle drags on. David Ochmanek: “Protracted conflict places great demands on defense industrial bases. The longer the war carries on, the cost exchange ratio spells trouble for the defender”
A common mistake The word of “spokesmen” and “officials” is not that of an objective, neutral arbiter of truth, but of an active participant in the game No spokespeople of any government should be taken at their word without considering their interests and incentives
A common mistake The word of “spokesmen” and “officials” is not that of an objective, neutral arbiter of truth, but of an active participant in the game No spokespeople of any government should be taken at their word without considering their interests and incentives
No single aid package will decide such a war So if this is truly the case, then continuing to provide aid, without simultaneous pressure to expedite negotiations, would just produce a perpetual, maximally destructive conflict for the Ukrainian people #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine
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@sentdefender It would really suck to join a volunteer military just to be sent to drive a truck, unarmed, in an active war zone where the people you’re supposedly helping do not want you there It all seems like a bad idea, idk maybe I’m a goof
Humiliation: Blinken departed #China and only the US ambassador said farewell at the airport. Not a single Chinese official came. The lowest of the low in international diplomacy etiquette, reflecting the condition of US China relations. Even when he arrived to Beijing, he…
👇 *I* don't think this is the right policy, but many do. What is clear to me is we should not be waging economic war *from a position of relative military weakness in Asia,* which seems to be what we're doing.
@ElbridgeColby @NPRinskeep @SecBlinken Even if we are only seeking to undermine their economic strength in order to cripple their military potential, we are still pursuing the destruction of the primary pillar of CCP rule. And that is an offensive, not defensive, policy.
U.S. Officials have now Confirmed that Footage from yesterday did in fact show the Downing of a MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance Drone of the U.S. Air Force, by what is believed to have been a Houthi Surface-to-Air Missile System in the Saada Governorate of Northwestern Yemen, causing…
Good @bellingcat piece here on common pitfalls in OSINT. I’d say No. 4 and No. 5 tend to separate those with professional all-source experience and genuine regional or functional expertise from most of the anon. aggregators on Telegram/Twitter/X. bellingcat.com/resources/2024…
This will be a mental adjustment for some people. Others of us have been expecting it, though with deep dismay.
China has the world’s largest Navy—& soon to be the world’s largest Air Force, U.S. Navy Adm Aquilino told Congress. “The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.” Today, the U.S. Air Force is the smallest it’s ever been, writes @defense_news:
A long war without a short road to peace The new US aid for Ukraine might not change the war, but it will surely prolong it for several months or even more. Ukraine has a disadvantage in every aspect of the war, but they maintain a strong defensive army. Every day, hundreds of…
China has the world’s largest Navy—& soon to be the world’s largest Air Force, U.S. Navy Adm Aquilino told Congress. “The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.” Today, the U.S. Air Force is the smallest it’s ever been, writes @defense_news:
The "we are degrading Russia's military at a bargain" argument just really needs to be retired. Cavoli's testimony really discredits it. Russia's military is reconstituting. We are spending *a lot* of resources and political capital. *We* are being bled vis a vis China.
But we did burn through key munitions before admitting this... "U.S. Special Envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, bowed to the obvious and admitted, “We favor a diplomatic solution, we know there is no military solution.” defense.info/featured-story…
This is a dangerous plan that should be stopped immediately. It is not in U.S. interests, will not appreciably improve the provision of aid to Gaza, and risks drawing the U.S. into the conflict directly via an attack or an accident.
Construction on the US military pier off the coast of Gaza has begun, @PentagonPresSec says just now.
@osint_mercury There are a small number of success stories (a small white pill to start the day). But it seems the bigger the purchase, the more likely it’s going to underperform in schedule, cost, and/or functionality. Then there’s Kell y Johnson’s 15th rule of m anagement. It would be…
NEW: Gaza pier construction area hit with mortar fire. I’ve been warning since the day it was announced that the #Gaza pier would be a likely vector for U.S. troops and contractors to be attacked, perhaps even catastrophically, making the U.S. military a direct belligerent vs.…
According to several Sources; the Temporary Jetty being Constructed in Central Gaza, which will eventually be utilized to receive Humanitarian Aid from the Floating Dock being Established by the U.S. Army and Navy off the Coast of Gaza, was Attacked earlier today during a U.N.…
There are no wonder weapons for the war in Ukraine. Another illustration, as ATACMs have reportedly been provided to Ukraine now for some time. 👇 washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense…
Our extended nuclear deterrent in light of this is increasingly highly questionable, especially in light of the weakness of our missile defenses. And the success we claim is that *our allies* are constrained? Huh? How does that make any sense to a normal person? 2/
Sorry, no one can say with a straight face that our nuclear nonproliferation policy in Asia is a success. North Korea has dozens of nuclear weapons and there is no real prospect of their elimination. China is in nuclear breakout. 1/ washingtontimes.com/news/2024/apr/…
And here's the scary part. The USAF will give Boeing the NGAD fighter contract to keep them in the fighter aerospace business. If this happens, you can guarantee just as sun comes up every morning, it will be a disaster.
Boeing not included in CCA project is huge slap in the face for failing, former Aerospace giant. Their plant in St Louis needs work & their company is bleeding cash. Its especially painful bc they thought Australian MQ28 gave them a leg up. defensenews.com/naval/
@osint_mercury Its like a chapter out of Atlas Shrugged watching all these programs produce over priced weapons that perform poorly and aren't even useful in the war theaters of modern war.
@osint_mercury There is no accountability. The people failing just move on to their next project to fail again. Look at the Afghan fiasco for example. Not a single person was held to account. Ditto for LCS. We are rewarding failure with out NatSec at stake.
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