David Taylor @DaveTaylorNews
News junkie. In pursuit of the truth and a good yarn. Comments, likes and retweets are based on my personal views & don't represent the views of the ABC. abc.net.au Joined July 2011-
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THE KEY question for the RBA is how long it can tolerate elevated inflation IT’S ALL about inflation expectations The second the RBA believes they are no longer ‘anchored’ it will shift policy But I can’t see the bank raising rates outside this scenario
Similar US inflation report overnight to what we had on Wednesday … overshooting to the upside It’s the ‘last mile’ of inflation that’s become the real test Central banks simply can’t ease policy
RBA to hike rates in May, Capital Economics expects
US economic growth slows substantially to 1.6 per cent (Q1 annualised) Former Treasury economist @_warrenhogan sees RBA raising interest rates above 5 per cent
Money markets push first interest rate cut to February 2025 They’ve rethought their thesis that landlords, electricity giants, insurance companies, and healthcare and education providers were going to suddenly have a change of heart and stop raising their prices this year
It’s obvious by looking at the CPI basket the RBA’s 13 rake hikes have done their job — quite well in fact But the inflation “target” of 2 to 3 per cent captures everything — including the items that are not influenced by interest rates No wonder people are frustrated
Here’s the pain - rent - education - healthcare And… Insurance prices rose 16.4 per cent annually ‘Strongest annual growth in insurance premiums in 23 years’ (ABS) These are all essential items The deflation is happening in stuff we don’t need
Smoothed trimmed mean inflation 4.0 per cent (year to March quarter) All the usual suspects in CPI basket remain elevated Housing under supply a key problem Bolsters case for no rate cuts this year
March quarter inflation 1 per cent 3.6 per cent for year “Rental prices rose 2.1 per cent for the quarter in line with low vacancy rates across the capital cities. Rents continues to increase at their fastest rate in 15 years," ABS said.
Citi’s just slapped a ‘sell’ recommendation on all major Australian banks
Oh and the flight from LAX to Sydney truly is a whole world of special pain You know when you wake up and hope you’re almost home and you see there’s still over 7 hours to go?
And bravo @abcnews for this still
Been in the US for just a few days Inflation obviously still a problem
‘The surge in immigration is estimated to push the national housing shortfall to around 200,000 dwellings this financial year,’ AMP’s Shane Oliver notes
‘Consumer confidence has now been negative for 26 consecutive months which is the longest that confidence has been this negative apart from the 1989-1993 recessionary period,’ AMP notes Yes, we are in an entrenched per capita recession and people are really bummed about it
Still incredibly difficult to find a rental in this country ‘The national rental vacancy rate was at 1.11% in March after rising 0.04 percentage points (ppt) over the month,’ PropTrack says
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My home insurance ⬆️ 41% last year 😳 this year premium will go up a further 50% 😠 Anyone else finding the same? Get in touch w @DaveTaylorNews
That’s why I still haven’t coloured my hair back to red yet 🫠🫠🫠
@DaveTaylorNews a good time to work on the memoirs. "Taylor's Tales" ?
@sayerbaz @DaveTaylorNews probably done that trip 50 times now, I now realise it’s a ‘relative’ breeze without kids
@DaveTaylorNews @rohancct Oh, and 14 hrs Hong Kong to New York...only to wait in the customs line for 3 hrs, after which I was advised they'd put our luggage on the wrong plane and it would be delivered in 24 - 48 hours.
@DaveTaylorNews Done that multiple time and now do the nyc to sydney via NZ- 17 hours is the leg from NZ to NYC- actually prefer that to going to LA when going to NYC. Long flight but you can get a good sleep on it if you time things right.
@DaveTaylorNews Maybe that's where i got it from. I knew i heard it from a standup comedian.
@DaveTaylorNews Is that at the Otis Restaurant in Kingston? There’s been a few heads removed there over the years.
@DaveTaylorNews Enjoy ! Go to the mountains if you can, heard it’s great up there.
@DaveTaylorNews Don’t know how to tell you this David, but looks like you’re insolvent. My advice, cease trading, appoint an administrator, maybe look at a deed of company arrangement?
@DaveTaylorNews Kids in the neighbourhood were running one the other day so I stopped my car to ask for a cup - $1 standard, $2 large - asked for a large. Kid 1 turns to Kid 2 wide eyed on taking my order and says excitedly ‘you’d better go and get more big cups’ Best $2 I’ve ever spent.
@DaveTaylorNews 20% of Sydney servos are charging 235.9 for regular unleaded this morning. Prices are on the up
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@DaveTaylorNews @abcnews Nice summary…
No.
With housing affordability getting worse, could letting first home buyers tap into their super for a deposit be the solution? I look at the latest research. 9now.nine.com.au/today/videos/l…
Before taking the populist course of criticising the RBA on rates you could start first with successive governments failing on housing policy, allowing housing to become so expensive and forcing Australians to become so indebted if they want a home
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