DM @DM138138

Numbers guy + chess master. Love 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱. Joined October 2021

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DM @DM138138

22 hours ago

@IAPolls2022 How could it shift one point and move from D+5 to D+2? Is there a typo somewhere here?

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@1981SJP01 @OpenSourceZone I disagree. He doesn't look gay. He looks like a creep. Gives off strong "hide your kids" vibes. The opposition research is going to start coming out, mark my words. This guy has skeletons in his closet.

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DM @DM138138

2 days ago

@FainFest2028 @PollTracker2024 There's also the little matter of the water bottle incident. The man isn't stable. There will be lots of oppo research on him.

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DM @DM138138

2 days ago

@Chris_H_Politic @StatisticUrban Agree 100%

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DM @DM138138

2 days ago

@JBPritzker This is a threat to democracy and an insurrection. I'm literally shaking right now.

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DM @DM138138

2 days ago

@thomasahle @N8Programs You missed the integer coefficients part

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@stspiman @VoteHub Nope, he's the far left lunatic who threw a bottle at a woman during a state Senate caucus 😅. I know... It's hard to keep up with their line of crazy candidates there. Bottle-Throw Allegation Jolts Maine Senate Race | Newsmax.com share.google/QgoW0g2eor1zLf…

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@hennessy_eunuch @souljagoyteller Rather than focusing on whose vote counts (they all count under either system), you should be focusing on the pros and cons of each system. Where are candidates incentivized to campaign. What types of policies and issues are candidates incentivized to push. Etc.

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@hennessy_eunuch @souljagoyteller OR has about 2M voters. None of those votes would have impacted the outcome of the 2024 election if it was a pop vote. You're conflating disenfranchisement with losing. There are legitimate disc pts on the EC (impacts where candidates campaign, etc.) but this is a bad one.

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@hennessy_eunuch @souljagoyteller Put another way, in *any election* you can the losing party's votes didn't matter (because they lost). But it's not true: their votes did matter, but someone else got more votes than they did.

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@hennessy_eunuch @souljagoyteller Only if, as you said, the national vote is close. In practice looking at history, it's usually not close enough for any single state's votes to matter (except for the jumbo states like CA and TX). Ex: Trump beat Kamala by 2.3M votes. And that was a relatively close election.

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@purrtah Agree Rs are celebrating for no reason but it was not a likely voter screen. It was a "certain to vote" screen. That is not at all the same thing; Dems will always outperform there because of their college base, but the other categories vote too.

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@electionsjoe He looks like a creep. Definitely has skeletons in his closet. Something tells me Dems will regret this once the oppo research comes out... Not to mention the water bottle throwing thing. Something is very off with him. Dems don't have good choices now though, to be fair.

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DM @DM138138

3 days ago

@StatisticUrban Agree on the very heterogenous results by region. That said, my gut says that Dems will outperform polling, similar to 2025. Current polling isn't capturing the enthusiasm gap well, and at this stage there aren't many LV screens.

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DM @DM138138

5 days ago

@earlyvotedata An underappreciated fact: in a small state like Maine there are fewer people to choose from, so you're less likely to get strong candidates and more likely to get wackos running for state level offices.

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DM @DM138138

5 days ago

@buckylynne12 @JJthegrey @BriannaWu He did. He defines it the way all "anti-Zionists* do. They just mean the Jews.

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DM @DM138138

6 days ago

@CatrionaCgx @Bocephus2020 @RNCResearch No one says "enTHOOOzhiasum" like she does in this video. It's all so fake.

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DM @DM138138

6 days ago

@NateSilver538 He could not win an R primary unless he does a 180 on all of his policies. That might happen, but as things stand today he has no shot. This is a bad take.