David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt
Senior writer, N.Y. Times. Author, "Ours Was the Shining Future: The Story of the American Dream." Best book of the year, Atlantic, FT & TNR. Now in paperback. penguinrandomhouse.com/books/217260/o… Washington, DC Joined July 2010-
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@JakeMGrumbach This is factually incorrect. We looked at both winning and losing candidates and said so in the editorial.
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For anyone thinking about immigration policy, I recommend this year-old piece by Michael Kazin: "How the GOP’s Hard Line Will Make America More Pro-Immigrant, Not Less." newrepublic.com/article/178780…
The left has lost power in the U.S., Germany, Italy and Sweden. Canada and Australia may be next. And the far right is growing across the West. But there is one European country where the left has won re-election and marginalized the far right: Denmark. Why? 🧵
@mattyglesias Say more, please! (And thanks.)
David Leonhardt retweeted
@JakeMGrumbach The funny thing about the traditional contact theory discourse is that now immigrants themselves are swinging pretty right x.com/davidshor/stat…
The immigrant piece of this is really important. If you take this ecological regression literally, voters born outside the US swung 23% pp against Democrats in 2024, 14% more than you'd expect from race and education, making up more than half of the net votes lost since 2020.
@JakeMGrumbach But what about South Texas? Queens? Chicago? Working-class communities that were most affected by the recent immigration surge swung to the right, while affluent areas that were largely untouched did not. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The numbers matter too. The two countries that border Denmark — Germany and Sweden — each have a foreign-born population of 20%, not 12%. Germany and Sweden have weak center lefts and strong far rights. Denmark has a center-left government and a hobbled far right.
"Today [2024] 12.6% of the population is foreign-born, up from 10.5% [in 2019] when [center-left] Frederiksen took office." That's ~0.4% of total population increase in the migrant stock *each year.* A sign, perhaps, that what matters is to get the rhetoric right?
More from Starmer: “This happened by design, not accident. Policies were reformed, deliberately, to liberalise immigration…. To turn Britain into a one-nation experiment in open borders. Global Britain – remember that slogan. That is what they meant. A policy with no support.”
Here’s PM Keir Starmer in November: “Nearly one million people came to Britain in the year ending June 2023… What the British people are owed is an explanation. Because a failure on this scale isn’t just bad luck…. No, this a different order of failure.”
Indeed. The UK Labour Party won last year partly by criticizing the Tories for being too lax on immigration.
Immigration is now roiling politics in the U.S., Canada, Australia, South Africa and Europe. The left's recent strategy -- lecturing working-class voters and ignoring the burdens on their communities -- hasn't worked. Denmark points to an alternative. nytimes.com/2025/02/24/mag…
Consider this: Around the world, there is not one clear example of a country that has accepted large numbers of newcomers in recent decades while marginalizing the far right and reducing inequality.
What a run for Ian. We are really sorry to lose him — but proud and excited that @BostonGlobe has hired him for this role. Sign up if you care about Boston or New England!
After more than seven years @nytimes, I’m thrilled to be joining @BostonGlobe to write Starting Point, the paper’s flagship email newsletter. I’m psyched to get back to my New England roots, and I’ll start writing in the coming weeks
She performed better in swing states relative to *her own performance elsewhere* (because she campaigned there). She lost NV, WI, MI and AZ, all of which Dem Senate candidates won.
“her dearth of swing-voter appeal” Harris overperformed in swing states! She did close to 3 pts better in swing states than she did nationally
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