Bolton Elects @BoltonElects
Two data science students from Bolton providing polling, predictions, gossip and election results for Bolton. Patreon.com/BoltonElects Joined May 2020-
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Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/04): LAB: 306 (+104) - 39.2% CON: 251 (-114) - 33.9% SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.9% LDM: 19 (+8) - 9.6% PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6% GRN: 1 (=) - 5.9% RFM: 0 (=) - 3.9% Others: 2 (+2) - 3.0% LAB 16 Short. Changes w/ GE2019. electionmaps.uk/nowcast
@ElectionMapsUK Forgot how well the CDU did in Wales and Scotland last time
New product this week: Predictions for sale for each ward at the local elections in May. Ideal for candidates and local parties. Contact us for details and pricing. electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_conta…
How each parties predicted number of seats has changed since the 2019 election... p.s. please can we have a Scottish Westminster Voting Intention out soon thanks huns xx electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Spent some time speaking to people about why Labour lost Ancoats and Beswick at a by-election last month. Hard to say whether the result will be reflected elsewhere in Manchester this May - it could just be a blip, but should ring alarm bells #LDReporter manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-m…
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/02) LAB: 305 (+103) - 38.9% CON: 242 (-123) - 33.3% SNP: 57 (+9) - 4.2% LDM: 19 (+8) - 10.2% PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6% GRN: 1 (=) - 6.2% RFM: 0 (=) - 4.1% Others: 2 (+2) - 2.4% LAB 21 Short. Changes w/ GE2019. electionmaps.uk/nowcast
🚨 Poll of 101 MPs 🚨 If you toss a fair coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads? 25%: 52% 50%: 32% Other Answers: 7% Don't Know: 10% Via @SavantaComRes, 17 Nov - 18 Jan. Apologies to MPs that follow me, but Christ alive how stupid are (almost half) of you?
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 41% (+2) CON: 31% (-3) LDM: 9% (-2) GRN: 6% (+1) Via @OpiniumResearch, 12-14 Jan. Changes w/ 5-7 Jan.
Largest Labour lead in any poll since December 2013.
Largest Labour lead in any poll since December 2013.
Greater Manchester’s vaccine rate masks Manchester’s, which is the lowest (I think) outside London; 42% of Mancs still haven’t had their first two jabs. Have spoken to more than one local official who’s worried
Britain Predicts — model update: Labour the largest party LAB: 281 MPs (+79) CON 276 (-89) SNP: 55 (+7) LDEM: 14 (+3) Drilldown: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Our new monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour and #Conservative neck-and-neck in vote share for first time in a year. Cons predicted to win more seats, but Keir Starmer more likely to be PM. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (30/11) CON: 300 (-65) - 36.9% LAB: 260 (+58) - 36.6% SNP: 55 (+7) - 4.3% LDM: 10 (-1) - 8.9% PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.7% GRN: 1 (=) - 6.3% RFM: 0 (=) - 3.6% CON 26 Short. Changes w/ GE2019. electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Britain Predicts — model update: Hung parliament CON: 295 MPs (-70) LAB:265 (+63) SNP: 55 (+7) LDEM: 11 (-) Drilldown: newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (23/11) CON: 293 (-72) - 36.5% LAB: 267 (+65) - 36.6% SNP: 55 (+7) - 4.3% LDM: 10 (-1) - 8.9% PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.7% GRN: 1 (=) - 6.8% RFM: 0 (=) - 3.4% Changes w/ GE2019. electionmaps.uk/nowcast
✍️ Morning analysis from @BNHWalker: Labour now leads in most polls, but it owes more to Tory weakness than it does to Labour strength. > Con Leavers are going undecided, not Lab > Three in ten still don't have an opinion on Keir Starmer Read: newstatesman.com/politics/polli…
Hello 2010 newstatesman.com/politics/elect…
Britain Elects @BritainElects
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297 Followers 463 Following Official Twitter page for the Bolton Labour Group of Councillors.@ElectionMapsUK It's an ice cream.
@Trickyjabs @ElectionMapsUK @FindoutnowUK I agree. I would expect both those parties to benefit. I think this forecast is overly generous to Labour and overly pessimistic for the Tories. They're likely to do very badly but these numbers seem excessive.
@ElectionMapsUK @FindoutnowUK This sounds incredibly dubious. If last year and recent by-elections are a guide, surely LibDems and Greens will be big beneficiaries.
@ElectionMapsUK Forgot how well the CDU did in Wales and Scotland last time
@ElectionMapsUK Obviously the map doesn’t slow split wards of which there are several. Bizarre system London elections where you elect 3 at once but doesn’t use any form of PR.
As promised, we start our ward-by-ward previews for May's elections with a thread on Barton & Winton, which was created last year by the merger of the separate safe Labour wards of Barton and Winton. 2021 result: LAB: 1642, 1410, 1305 CON: 496, 425, 404 GRN: 417 LDEM: 225
New product this week: Predictions for sale for each ward at the local elections in May. Ideal for candidates and local parties. Contact us for details and pricing. electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_conta…
@MPSRoyal_Parks Why are drivers allowed to drive round a park anyway?
@MPSRoyal_Parks Thank you for sharing another great example of why cars shouldn't be allowed in the park in the first place.
@TheLathums Accy Stanley playing Fleetwood in Sat afternoon. Only a tram away. All welcome in the away end.
@newey1980 @ElectionMapsUK As an election agent I can tell you they are bloody easy, I am baffled as to how they get it wrong!
With the 2022 local elections rapidly approaching, here is a reminder of the current political composition of Salford City Council. One third of the seats (one in each ward) are up for grabs this year, only twelve months after the incumbent councillors fought their last contest.
How each parties predicted number of seats has changed since the 2019 election... p.s. please can we have a Scottish Westminster Voting Intention out soon thanks huns xx electionmaps.uk/nowcast
@DorDic1 The trouble with text-based communication is that you could just as easily interpret his comment as support. You have chosen to interpret this as an attack.
Keith that is an ARM
@AldiUK i was very happy to see these in your supermarket, but perhaps not as happy as Peppa is….
My quest for an omelette barm is complete. Took three trips to Gregg's. Came so close to giving up. What a way to start the week.
@MCRCycleSam @LauraEvansTeam And who ran Trafford Council for 37 out of the last 50 years, without even fixing the roads. The state of the streets in Bowdon is appalling, a supposed Tory heartland. Totally taken for granted.
@LauraEvansTeam @mikeymagnetic I will happily pay more council tax if it means the poorest in society can get from A to B without breaking the bank. This will mean a saving £1.5k pa for somebody travelling into Manchester to work everyday. Obviously the poorer in society are not your concern @LauraEvansTeam
@LauraEvansTeam Tories never understand that affordable public transport is the grease in the economy’s wheels. It makes employment & educational opportunities more accessible, while reducing the huge social and environmental costs of car ownership & congestion.
Hey @Conservatives. Looks to me like you are buying databases. Just reported for breaking GDPR rules. Have a great weekend.