Birth Gauge @BirthGauge
Tracking the global fertility decline Joined September 2013-
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People who think the answer is a progressive welfare state have to explain Norway (TFR 1.5) People who think the answer is conservative social policy have to explain Korea (TFR 0.8)
People who think the answer is a progressive welfare state have to explain Norway (TFR 1.5) People who think the answer is conservative social policy have to explain Korea (TFR 0.8)
There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part due to a cultural & political disconnect.
A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families.
A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families. https://t.co/ackhWucOY8
@BirthGauge Faroese Islands Total fertility rate 2023: 1.86 2022: 2.07 In 2016 it was 2.64 First time, below the faroese islands replacement rate Flexible work-life balance, rural and christian conservative culture could not save them, from the post covid baby bust local.fo/faroe-islands-…
EU births outside marriage
EU births outside marriage https://t.co/NtAsaIHqv3
The population aged 0-14 in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia peaked in the late 1970s. In a few years, it will be back to 1950 levels. Eventually by 2100, it will probably be around a third of the 1970s peak.
Where in France are large families (3+ kids) most common? Source: buff.ly/3WcOHZ6
Births being out for 2023 Q1, it's time to take a look at the current birth count in the "Laestadian municipalities" I keep an eye on. As usual, those are small towns so variance can be really high (look at Merijärvi for example). Anyway, the poster boy Larsmo is starting well.
Fertility intentions suggest China's fertility may have a lot further to fall. Given China's TFR was just 1.02 in 2023, this seems surprising, but South Korea shows there is no natural floor to fertility. This will devastate both 🇨🇳 and the global economy. 🧵, please share!
Interesting article about a Laestadian family that had 20! kids. Even more interestingly, only 2 kids remained in the Laestadian faith. Just an example, but the attrition rate is very high in their community. kodinkuvalehti.fi/artikkeli/lue/…
Uzbekistan with a 4.3% decline in the number of births in the first quarter of 2024. Even with this decline, the TFR of Uzbekistan this year will still be 3.3 kids per woman (3.45 in 2023).
Uzbekistan with a 4.3% decline in the number of births in the first quarter of 2024. Even with this decline, the TFR of Uzbekistan this year will still be 3.3 kids per woman (3.45 in 2023).
Small countries that sign open migration agreements are sowing the seeds of their own demographic destruction. High emigration devastated many small Caribbean countries too. EU free movement agreements put Bulgaria on the ropes & will do the same with Moldova, N. Macedonia etc.
Small countries that sign open migration agreements are sowing the seeds of their own demographic destruction. High emigration devastated many small Caribbean countries too. EU free movement agreements put Bulgaria on the ropes & will do the same with Moldova, N. Macedonia etc.
@HurryRainer Wow. The USA signed open migration agreements with the Marshall Islands, Palau and Micronesia, each of which was followed by mass emigration and a collapse in fertility. Palau even had natural population decline in 2022:
@BirthGauge dynamic
Kazakhstan 2023. Life expectancy, for the first time reached 75 years.
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People who think the answer is a progressive welfare state have to explain Norway (TFR 1.5) People who think the answer is conservative social policy have to explain Korea (TFR 0.8)
Many of the people who are concerned with falling birthrates aren't willing to consider the set policies that would address the problem -- aggressive tax breaks for families, free daycare, free education, free healthcare, and building more/denser housing to slash the price of…
Ironically, communism has a long history of glorifying workaholic behavior. The USSR launched the Stakhanovite Movement in the 1930s to encourage workers to voluntarily raise their productivity by working longer, harder hours. "Anti-work communism" is a 21st century invention.
@BirthGauge Macedonia Births / Deaths = Natural increase Feb 2023 - 1,267 / 1,694 = -427 Feb 2024 - 1,314 / 1,742 = -428 +47 (+3.7%) / +48 (+2.8%) Jan-Feb 2023 - 2,377 / 3,400 = -1,023 Jan-Feb 2024 - 2,459 / 3,616 = -1,157 +82 (+3.4%) / +216 (+6.3%) All data is preliminary
@BirthGauge Montenegro: livebirths Jan-Feb 2023: 1,134 Jan-Feb 2024: 1,160 (+2.29%) Feb 2023: 519 Feb 2024: 540 (+4.05%) Since Februar 2024 had one more day, growth on daily basis in February is 0.46%
@BirthGauge Croatia: livebirths Jan-Mar 2023: 8,124 Jan-Mar 2024: 7,934 (-2.34%) March 2023: 2,771 March 2024: 2,518 (-9.13%)
In 1854, so 170 years ago: - Liverpool had more inhabitants than Moscow - Manchester was larger than Madrid - Leeds was larger than Milan - Birmingham was larger than Rome - Dundee was larger than Valencia - Bath was larger than Frankfurt - and Paisley larger than Athens
Pro natalism is seen by many young people as unappealing & anathema to their political beliefs. They must be won over to the natalist cause if there are to be substantial future generations. Otherwise expect more countries to fall to Polish or Spanish fertility rate levels.
@woke8yearold I'm going off of BirthGauge here. Saying birth rates were low because Vienna was depopulating seems very circular. Other German-speaking cities like Berlin were around modern Japanese cities. x.com/birthgauge/sta…
@r_r_abril Yes, Shanghai is now on the same low level as Vienna was in the 1930s. Infant mortality back then in Vienna was still higher though, so in terms of the net reproduction rate Shanghai is still slightly above 1930s Vienna.
@empireenjoyer10 What they say they want and what they do are completely divergent. Women in their 20s don’t actually have many children. The “just not at the moment” part is the critical failure here.
There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part due to a cultural & political disconnect.
Most people are not looking to live around maximum biomass, maximum rainfall. On the spectrum from thick damp woods to total desert, the most desired environment is considerably closer to desert. Less bugs, humidity, rank weeds, and so forth.
@BirthGauge 2023 data for Bulgaria came out today. 57 197 live-born(up from 56 596 in ‘22), 1.79 TFR nsi.bg/bg/content/213…
@BirthGauge Faroese Islands Total fertility rate 2023: 1.86 2022: 2.07 In 2016 it was 2.64 First time, below the faroese islands replacement rate Flexible work-life balance, rural and christian conservative culture could not save them, from the post covid baby bust local.fo/faroe-islands-…
@BirthGauge Idk, it’s probably irrational, but it seems to make a difference when studied. Maybe shared walls make people self-conscious about doing the necessary interpersonal labor (iykwim) to make the actual babies. But that’s speculation.
Low female workforce participation is the aberration, not the norm. Removing women from the workforce will NOT solve demographic collapse. It is evil to use pronatalism (or ANY cause—social justice, environmentalism, etc.) to push your cultural agendas on others.
Here is an estimation of the homicide rate in Romania since the 16th century. A similar decline in homicide can be seen here, just like the one that occurred in Western countries for which we have better data from the medieval period.
@ctone9 What he is saying here is that the subcultures in the world state that had the most kids would come to have the biggest long term presence. Their language will be spoken and their holidays celebrated. No ability to constrain them within the borders of some marginal nation.
If there were no meaningful borders on earth, how would groups complete? Seems pretty obvious. Entire planet as the playing field. High birthrate as #1 factor, along with tight in-groups and networks, economic and self defense power. Something to think about.
Trends for United States
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