Betting Benchmarks @BetBenchmarks
We benchmark the performance of online betting systems to help fans and forecasters make better predictions. BettingBenchmarks.com Joined November 2023-
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Career Playoff ATS % for QB's with 10+ Playoff Starts: 1. Eli Manning (75% POST, 52% REG) 2. Patrick Mahomes (71% POST, 51% REG) 3. Joe Flacco (69% POST, 50% REG) ... 14. Drew Brees (39% POST, 56% REG) 15. Josh Allen (30% POST, 57% REG) 15. Matt Ryan (30% POST, 49% REG)
First look at Super Bowl. 80% of winning public models like SF -1.5. But KC has outperformed models in all playoff games... and Mahomes is now 71% ATS in 17 career playoff games.
Top NFL Models ATS in Postseason: Beck Turnover Adjusted Least Squares has hit 75% on postseason (49% YTD). Underdogs have covered in 8/12 of playoff games. The opening & midweek spreads have outperformed the close. Only 3 of top 10 postseason models have hit > 50% YTD…
QB Career ATS %: Regular vs. Postseason **small sample size warning** Mahomes and Burrow as expected, have led playoff teams that outperformed market expectation (as have Jimmy G (!), Baker, and Flacco) Out of championship weekend starters: Mahomes (69% ATS in postseason) >…
Divisional Round Recap: SF vs GB was only spread to close outside 25th-75th percentile of model predictions. Most models correctly predicted GB (81%) and BAL (63%) to cover. Most models missed on DET (31%) and KC (26%). BAL (+14pts from models on average) and KC (+7pts)…
First look at Championship Weekend: BAL -3 (100% consensus of winning public models) DET +7 (71% consensus)
PFF Greenline was the only perfect model in the Divisional Round. 12 other models hit 75%. Team ATS % was the best benchmark strategy.
A different view of Wild Card weekend model results (ATS). Majority of models hit on TB (88% of all models) & HOU (86%). Many models even predicted the upsets outright. Models missed badly on KC (only 7% of models). Most models missed on BUF (18%), GB (24%), and LA (28%).
First look at Divisional Round. Early model alignment on: GB +9.5 (100% consensus of winning public models) BAL -9 (83% consensus) TB +6 (71% consensus) BUF -3 (60% consensus)
No perfect models this week, but nine of them hit 67% against the closing spread. Beck Least Squares has been the most reliable model all season (55% ytd, 67% this weekend). Opening spreads > midweek or close. Good weekend for home teams & underdogs.
Models have generally struggled so far on Wild Card weekend. Today we have strong model alignment: PIT +10 (100% consensus of winning public models) TB +3 (100% consensus)
Yesterday, top models correctly predicted HOU, but overestimated MIA. For the Sunday slate we have model alignment on the home favorites: DAL -7 (83% consensus of winning public models) DET -3 (71% consensus)
Wildcard weekend is here. Models are in agreement ahead of today's games: HOU: +2.5 (100% consensus of winning public models) MIA: +5 (87% consensus)
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Here's a look at the value over time for $100 bets placed in the preseason on the top NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates, including where each player peaked in value during the season. #NFL #NFLPlayoffs #SuperBowlLVIII
Here's a look at the value over time for $100 bets placed in the preseason on the top NFL MVP candidates, including where each player peaked in value during the season. #NFL #NFLPlayoffs #SuperBowlLVIII
@greerreNFL I mean if you include the last 6 games of the regular season, the 49ers are on an 8 game stretch of allowing 23 PPG. And they've played some really bad offenses in that stretch.
Is the KC offense really fixed or did they just play the two most depleted defenses in the NFL before only putting up 17 in the AFCCG? Is the 49ers’ defense really a liability or did they just play two of the hottest offenses in the league? Hard to say 🤷♂️
Our free guide offers team and player breakdowns alongside advanced stats for every playoff team including efficiency ratings, strategic breakdowns, and performance insights. Dive in before the biggest games of the season.
Anyone betting against Mahomes after what we have just watched this postseason deserves to lose their money.
For the third straight game, the Chiefs will be underdogs. The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites in the Super Bowl.
Number of Super Bowl appearances vs the number of seasons required to reach them Mahomes is only the 3rd player to get to 4 in 5 or fewer seasons (Kelly and Brady) Also, Brady's 2014-2020 probably not talked about enough-- 7 seasons, 5 appearances, and 3 rings
Across sports, teams play more passively with larger leads. It's also the case in football - the impact of score and time on run/pass rate is monstrous. Even within this chart, you'll notice teams up 8 are slightly more likely to call first down run plays than those up 6
introducing preview pages on the sumer website! get information about key players, advanced statistics on both teams and more just in time for the conference championship games sumersports.com/games/2023-21-…
@BetBenchmarks @greerreNFL Can you do analysis on only models who have had + return over a period of time? Some of these spreads they’re predicting are so off of the market it’s hard to imagine the models are generating +EV
Got some betting market data -- this looks at the hold on Tuesday money lines over the last 3 seasons
AFC Divisional Round - Advanced Stats Preview Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Best moneyline teams this NHL season ✅ Canucks 29-15, +9.9 units Flyers 24-20, +7.9 Jets 29-14, +7.8 Blues 21-21, +3.9 Rangers 28-15, +3.7 Worst teams ❌ Blue Jackets 14-30, -7.6 Wild 18-25, -9.8 Senators 15-24, -10.7 Sharks 10-35, -13.0 Data per @Bet_Labs
A (long) update on my journey and my thoughts on sharing my bets publicly in the future. In short, I won't be. Some people don’t understand why anybody would sell picks if they are a winning bettor. I know of many valid reasons, but I can only share my own. Here is my journey,…
Updated Divisional Round line movement at @BetMGM Open ➡️ Now Ravens -8.5 to -9.5 49ers -9.5 to -10 Lions -6 to -6.5 Bills -2.5 to -3 All favorites 📈 What could go wrong?
Rule of thumb: If you like the favourite, bet early. If you like the dog, bet late.
Updated Divisional Round line movement at @BetMGM Open ➡️ Now Ravens -8.5 to -9.5 49ers -9.5 to -10 Lions -6 to -6.5 Bills -2.5 to -3 All favorites 📈 What could go wrong?
Cumulative dropback EPA for the 2020 QB class (via TruMedia)
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