Fast Below Par @AQ_MND
data, community, bond trading. division pres @symphonyai. founder @dataQollab New York, NY Joined September 2009-
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bad it is
We've been training AI to score Federal Reserve sentiment. The model is longitudinal to ensure hawkish/dovish sentiment is scored with continuous context. Based on the recent repricing of interest rates, the model seems to be working well. @SymphonyAi
+353k NFP triggered a much needed rates correction across the curve today. Hedgers beware of bear steepening bc mortgage hedge ratios are lite UIC given the tactical influence on term structure. Here's my 3pm marks...
Happy Birthday @MG_MBS ! m.youtube.com/watch?v=X4r4o-…
Evolving market structure and the rise of electronic trading played a huge role in the lack of liquidity and spike in volatility we've experienced over the past 18 months. Hedgers must consider market profile when setting short-term duration weightings. Technicals matter...
Evolving market structure and the rise of electronic trading played a huge role in the lack of liquidity and spike in volatility we've experienced over the past 18 months. Hedgers must consider market profile when setting short-term duration weightings. Technicals matter...
Hedge out when the screen is firm. You're a sitting duck if you wait til 4pm
Hedge out when the screen is firm. You're a sitting duck if you wait til 4pm
One lucky dealer was left without a chair when the G2 6.5 settlement music stopped today. Squeeeeeezed....
The mortgage basis couldn't keep pace with the post-FOMC rates rally yesterday. Higher and wider in heavy trading volume. 156% of the 20 day moving average. Lender P&Ls will struggle with margin calls, lock renegotiations, and MSR multiple repricing....
Janet Yellen waiting for Jerome Powell to read the statement she wrote for him
TBA MBS closing marks and desk ratios for 11282023. Take note of basis outperformance and volume spikes in 4.5s, 5s, and 5.5s. This is becoming a trend as investors chase a potential 2024 bull steepener. Buying on the relative cheapness of future moneyness within the stack
Entangled #fxhash
Anyone want to guess why UMBS 5s saw so much volume yesterday? Hint in my handle....
Mortgage News Daily @mortgagenewsmnd
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Hedge funds are the marginal buyer of Treasuries via the cash-futures trade, but the ultimate risk is held by real money investors. This post looks at new research on what drives the their position in futures and speculates on what could lead to reversals. fedguy.com/levering-up/
I've worked in a bank (10yrs), a hedge fund (6yrs) and in HFTs (4yrs). Two things: 1. Yes, I'm old 2. You be amazed - stunned - by the number of premium name counterparties whose polished branding and external image belies a myriad of internal 'systems' that are held together…
After numerous episodes, monetary leaders have unveiled measures to fortify the U.S. Treasury market. The internals of the most systemically important market, already undergoing rapid change, will once again transform. The Treasury Market Evolution™ is about to begin... 1/
0DTE - A postmortem on the recent intraday sell-off
@AQ_MND A few hours before the Fed: YELLEN SAYS U.S. WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY TOUGHER JOB TO CONTROL DEFICITS IF THE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS 'VERY MUCH HIGHER' THAN EXPECTED Just a reminder to stick to the script? Loan originators can identify... Yellen wants refi rates.
Moody's can cite any reasons it wants for cutting the U.S. credit rating outlook, but the message to Congress is clear. With another shutdown looming after next week: "shut down = downgrade."
POWELL:COMMITTEE IS NOT TALKING ABOUT OR CONSIDERING CHANGING THE PACE OF BALANCE SHEET RUN-OFF
@AQ_MND That’s the reason I brought this subject up last night. I knew it would make for a good talking point. Appreciate all the info AQ!
@rcwhalen @AQ_MND @FannieMae @federalreserve @RickSantelli And AQ definitely knows. Dude is awesome. #legend
@AllHailtheHedge @AQ_MND @FannieMae @federalreserve @RickSantelli His daily TBA comment is must read....
@downontwo @AQ_MND Asking that question means you're at at least 2/3rds!
The Reverse Repo facility at the Fed dropped to $1.57 trillion What does this mean for markets? 1. The government is getting deeper into debt by spending more while taxes are dropping, and they have to borrow the difference. Normally they borrow from China, Japan, and the Fed…
@AQ_MND Thanks for the tune and all the insight, good stuff! Happy Friday …..cheers!
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