Wei Dai @weidai11
wrote Crypto++, b-money, UDT. thinking about existential safety and metaphilosophy. blogging at https://t.co/mBVFhriJVf weidai.com Joined June 2015-
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Communism, anarcho-capitalism, classical liberalism, evolutionary psychology, analytic philosophy, microeconomics, game theory, transhumanism, LW-style rationality, longtermism, plus a self-censored item. What's your list?
Communism, anarcho-capitalism, classical liberalism, evolutionary psychology, analytic philosophy, microeconomics, game theory, transhumanism, LW-style rationality, longtermism, plus a self-censored item. What's your list?
Among my first reactions upon hearing "artificial superintelligence" were "I can finally get answers to my favorite philosophical problems" followed by "How do I make sure the ASI actually answers them correctly?" Anyone else reacted like this?
Among my first reactions upon hearing "artificial superintelligence" were "I can finally get answers to my favorite philosophical problems" followed by "How do I make sure the ASI actually answers them correctly?" Anyone else reacted like this?
Surely it's just because they read too much science fiction?
Surely it's just because they read too much science fiction?
Sometimes I despair for humanity. This is someone who understands quantum computing and cryptocurrency, yet this is how he thinks about the AI transition. How on Earth do we get through any crisis or opportunity that requires deep strategic thinking?
Sometimes I despair for humanity. This is someone who understands quantum computing and cryptocurrency, yet this is how he thinks about the AI transition. How on Earth do we get through any crisis or opportunity that requires deep strategic thinking?
Me: Humanity should intensively study all approaches to the Singularity before pushing forward, to make sure we don't mess up this once in a lightcone opportunity. Ideally we'd spend a significant % of GWP on this. Others: Even $50 million per year is too much.
Me: Humanity should intensively study all approaches to the Singularity before pushing forward, to make sure we don't mess up this once in a lightcone opportunity. Ideally we'd spend a significant % of GWP on this. Others: Even $50 million per year is too much.
“Altman began approaching other board members, individually, about replacing her. When these members compared notes about the conversations, some felt that Altman had misrepresented them as supporting Toner's removal.” "Things like that had been happening for years."
“Altman began approaching other board members, individually, about replacing her. When these members compared notes about the conversations, some felt that Altman had misrepresented them as supporting Toner's removal.” "Things like that had been happening for years."
So @norabelrose has launched an AI optimism movement. Nora knows a lot about AI controllability so I take it seriously when they say that AI (at least the kind that we have now) is easy to control. However even if we live in a fully panglossian world about controllability, the…
So @norabelrose has launched an AI optimism movement. Nora knows a lot about AI controllability so I take it seriously when they say that AI (at least the kind that we have now) is easy to control. However even if we live in a fully panglossian world about controllability, the…
@RokoMijic @kanzure @perrymetzger Like, this isn't my first moral panic you guys. I remember a while back one of the cryonics mailing list regulars was outed as a "satanic" "vampire" cult leader. He was using the promise of rising in the hierarchy to gain cryonics signups. Super disturbing. People who never…
I'm relatively new to participating on Twitter/X, so if anyone has tips/suggestions/critiques on how/what I'm doing, please let me know. (Just had a person block me for the first time, and I'm not sure if I did something wrong, or if it's par for the course.)
Adam Avalon @defectpunk
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675 Followers 50 Following 1035 Capital is a long-only portfolio manager specializing in domestic small and micro-cap companies as well as preferred equities. Not investment advice.Jeffery Lebowski @JLebowski_420
76 Followers 226 Following “Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, your opinion, man.”Wild West Capital @BuffaloBillCo
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838 Followers 130 Following Exploring for the next tier one deposit. Lover of hydrocarbon bonds. #COM #CoalTwitter それで、あなたは何について話しているのですか? 私の目的は石炭です。 それで全部です。@elonmuskADO X should be the holding company that owns Twitter and Twitter should be Twitter.
@elonmuskADO No. Awkward in conversation, impossible to search for, and has zero brand equity after two years of trying. Bring back Twitter as the brand, let X be the holding company.
@AISafetyMemes @sama Yeah in terms of general knowledge base AI can do it. Anything past that, such as abstract thoughts of diagnostics based on a large dataset, unless you have a specific ML model for the disease you are testing for, its too inaccurate. I also think USMLE is not a good metric for…
@AISafetyMemes @sama I can tell you that as someone who works in AI with healthcare, you can't yet. It turns out that creating AI for pictures and generic text or playing games with limited rules set is easier than complicated abstraction and synthesis.
@AISafetyMemes @sama You sure you did not forget to update your fact sheet? Midjourney v4 was already pretty good and it was default between Nov 2022 and May 2023. The left image is probably not v4, but something older, and if it is, it's not representative to it.
@AISafetyMemes @sama My tldr response is that there will always be an enormous gap in the ability to manipulate the world of bits versus ability to manipulate the world of atoms. AGI applied to this these abilities is of coursescaled upwards, but so too is the gap.
Ukraine has just introduced a really nasty totalitarian practice - it has made it ILLEGAL for its male citizens who are abroad to use its consular services (not even Russia has introduced this tass.com/politics/17805… ). What exactly does this mean? If you as a Ukrainian (with…
It's unfortunate how discourse about dangerous capability evals often centers threats from today's models. Alice goes "Look, GPT-4 can hack stuff / scam people / make weapons," Bob goes "Nah, it's really bad at it." Bob's right! The ~entire worry is scaled-up future systems.
@RokoMijic @ajeya_cotra In the last couple months I've heard from you: alignment is easy and working, P(doom) is negative 60%, and now alignment makes things worse. How are these compatible?
A “surgical pause” won’t work because: 1) Politics doesn’t work that way 2) We don’t know when to pause For the politics argument, I think people are acting as if we could just go up to Sam or Dario and say “it’s too dangerous now. Please press pause”. Then the CEO would just…
Vernor Vinge seems to be the author that got the future most "right" to me by contrast, Charlie Stross's Accelerando is very rooted in a particularly 2000 view of the future of tech do others feel this way, or does VV speak to me because we share common ground?
VV ideas that feel verisimilitudinous: - usenet-style web is the common factor - programmer-archaeologists as a profession - captured minds doing cheap labor in a simulation etc
All the dramatic claims have been about Twitter, but I feel like Facebook has already quietly become basically-not-a-functional-website. It is no longer a place with core functionality like 'in a discussion, there's a way for each person to get notified when the other responds'.
@shdu11546816 @weidai11 @RokoMijic @TolgaBilge_ Why not try for the best case scenario instead of submitting to weird ass polite AIs who would choose to build a different future from you? That's what we're getting by default.
My luck with AI continues. I tried what I thought was an easy one. Me: How much current would be required to charge a 80 kWh battery in 10 minutes at 480V? ChatGPT: 600,000A. Me: That's wrong, here why. CGPT: You're right! The answer is 600,000A. Me: That's the same answer.
The real blackpill is when you realize that 90% of people don't know what the fuck is happening and just copy what everyone around them is doing and so a tiny minority who get to set consensus beliefs can exert phenomenal amounts of control over the world
NEW: Pro-Palestine protester has no clue why she is protesting and then asks a friend why they are protesting who also has no clue. Remarkable. Reporter: "Why are you protesting?" Protester: "Demanding that NYU stops! I honestly don't know what NYU is doing... Do you know what…
This is a petty case, but I'm always fascinated by those who use the language of human rights to remove them. "I want to ban people from building things I dislike" becomes, with the wave of a hand, "My preference should be a human right." Neat trick if you can manage it.
“Windows should be a human right,” said Juan Miró, an architecture professor at UT Austin who has advocated against windowless bedrooms. Read more: l8r.it/7h5Z
@RokoMijic @optimablog @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson @psychosort Where? We need a global non-proliferation treaty. We're nowhere near that.
Tucker is a good man but he has been led astray, like many on the right, by the following game: 1. Man invents centralized knowledge generation 2. Centralized knowledge far outstrips what individual knowledge is capable of and so becomes high-status and important 3.…
I'm a huge fan of @FLI_org and excited that my podcast with @GusDocker just dropped! 🎤🫳 Gus served up an awesomely wide-ranging yet focused stream of questions. I highly recommend checking this one out: 00:00 What is "intelligence"? 05:18 Will LLMs imitate human values? 07:15…