Thomas Miller @virtualtout
Joined July 2015-
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Electoral College vote forecasts updated every minute on virtualtout.io
Rest assured, I am reading your comments and responding as often as I can on The Virtual Tout website: virtualtout.com
See 2024 presidential election forecasts at virtualtout.com
@SaneYossarian Is it possible for large investors to affect prices? I think yes. This is more a problem with a market like Polymarket or Kalshi than with PredictIt. See the seven criteria that I use for selecting a prediction market data source: virtualtout.com/election-forec…
We had planned to do statewide forecasts for the midterm elections this November. But we failed to secure funding to conduct prediction surveys, which are a key component of our forecasts. Prediction surveys take on added value when prediction markets are unavailable.
@LadyAngel1124 Hello from California. FYI. Everybody is welcome here. Lots of good schools, too, in case you are thinking of moving in the future.
The next major US election day will be Tuesday, November 8, 2022. We can expect changes in congressional districts and voting rules. We need to learn from the past and do what we can to get trustworthy election forecasts. Welcome your ideas.
@TheITWineGuy We have been tracking prediction markets about the impeachment since the morning of January 18th when the estimated chance of conviction in the Senate stood around 20%. Today's estimates suggest a 2% chance. We can see the market data at predictit.org/markets/detail…
@Elizabe69992751 My presentation at Northwestern on Nov. 5 included a reanalysis of Lichtman's Keys to the White House, using them as binary indicators of challenger success. A machine learning model suggested that Biden had a 62.4% chance of winning the election, with two very important keys.
Learn more about political horizon charts from the working paper available on Data Science Quarterly: data-science-quarterly.com/articles/dsq-p… There is a cheat sheet for margin-of-victory and chance-of-winning scales: data-science-quarterly.com/articles/polit… Or listen to the podcast at anchor.fm/virtualtout
@OpenModelProj You are to be commended in your attempts to bring transparency to political polling. My methods incorporate two types of surveys: preference surveys (similar to traditional political polls) and prediction surveys, which are my unique contribution to election forecasting.
@Elizabe69992751 It is not enough to predict winners alone. Look for explicit predictions as point spreads that are published prior to the opening of polls on the final day of in-person voting, January 5, 2021. Then compare those predictions to the certified election results after they are known.
Another article has been published describing our election forecasting methods as they played out in the Georgia runoff elections. fortune.com/2021/01/09/dat…
@chanep I had responded to this comment by Chollet previously. It is easy to get money into and out of PredictIt, so I regard these prediction markets as liquid. There are fees, as we would expect in any betting market, but these do not affect liquidity.
@EdwardvonBear1 I provide a final forecast prior to the opening of the polls on election day. I do not update forecasts while the votes are being counted. Like everyone else, I wait for the election returns... sometimes for days.
Jan 5, 2021 1 AM Pacific Our prediction for the Georgia runoff elections: Jon Ossoff over David Perdue by 1 point, Raphael Warnock over Kelly Loeffler by 2 points. This prediction draws on preference surveys, prediction surveys and markets, as well as voter participation data.
We are in the news with election forecasting. news.northwestern.edu/stories/2021/0… fortune.com/2021/01/05/geo…
January 5, 2021 12 AM Pacific Prediction markets favor Republicans, especially in Georgia, as we saw with the Nov. presidential election. Our own political polls, shown in the "Preference Survey" panels of this plot, have both Democratic candidates winning by more than 5 points.
Georgia Special Runoff Election 2021-01-05 12 AM Pacific Prediction market estimates: Raphael Warnock has a 59.6% chance of winning, as he appears to hold a 0.7-point lead over Kelly Loeffler. Democratic chances have improved in the last day. data-science-quarterly.com @NUSources
Georgia Regular US Senate Runoff Election 2021-01-05 12 AM Pacific Prediction market estimates suggest that David Perdue and Jon Ossoff have about an equal chance of winning this election. Democratic chances have improved in the last day, with Ossoff holding a 0.1-point lead.
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