Systems Immunology Lab @simmgroup
Systems Immunology lab. Using maths to model infections and immunity @Helmholtz_HZI since 2010. Based at BRICS @tuBraunschweig. theoretical-biology.de Braunschweig, Germany Joined April 2020-
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1/ There are various tweets misinterpreting COVID-19 “pre-existing immunity” and making dangerous claims about herd immunity. Since many of those claims refer to our scientific papers, we will reiterate the facts. @SetteLab @ljiresearch @ScienceMagazine @CellCellPress
Head of @simmgroup Michael Meyer-Hermann is part of the interdisciplinary commission Pandemic Research of the DFG. Important initiative bringing together a wide range of disciplines: #epidemiology #economics #ethics #law #Sociology #psychology #History @dfgpublic
@simmgroup contributes to the Work on Mathematical modelling of spread & control of #COVID19 Our task includes using #ArtificialIntelligence to identify high risk patients. Looking forward to joint work with #CORESMA @rivm, NMI_DE, SwissTPH and the EPID department @Helmholtz_HZI
@simmgroup contributes to the Work on Mathematical modelling of spread & control of #COVID19 Our task includes using #ArtificialIntelligence to identify high risk patients. Looking forward to joint work with #CORESMA @rivm, NMI_DE, SwissTPH and the EPID department @Helmholtz_HZI
Nice read on collaboration of @tuBraunschweig & @Helmholtz_HZI on neutralising #SARS-CoV2 antibodies. Our group uses computer simulations to study mechanisms of germinal centre induction/shutdown, Bcell selection, affinity maturation, Bcell differentiation helmholtz-hzi.de/de/forschung/f…
Nice read on collaboration of @tuBraunschweig & @Helmholtz_HZI on neutralising #SARS-CoV2 antibodies. Our group uses computer simulations to study mechanisms of germinal centre induction/shutdown, Bcell selection, affinity maturation, Bcell differentiation helmholtz-hzi.de/de/forschung/f…
From this and other parameters, analytical calculation of a reproduction rate is done. We fit these parameters for a sliding 7-day window. This reduces, but not completely eliminates seasonality. 2/2
Our results indeed show a seasonal pattern. This is because we opted to use the RKI data without smoothing. Note that our method works very differently from what RKI is doing. We have a model with an infection rate that we fit to the data. 1/2
Based on our SECIR model, stricter measures in all red zones, orange zones with scattered outbreaks and containment areas in green-zones are implicated by @tanmay_mitra_ gitlab.com/simm/covid19/i… @PMOIndia @narendramodi @MoHFW_INDIA @ICMRDELHI, @NITIAayog @IndiaDST @FinMinIndia
Is India ready to relax lockdown? State-specific modeling by @tanmay_mitra_: relaxation of measures now will overwhelm healthcare system in weeks india.secir.theoretical-biology.de bit.ly/2BsqHtv @PMOIndia @narendramodi @MoHFW_INDIA @ICMRDELHI, @NITIAayog @IndiaDST @FinMinIndia
Interesting thread by @kakape about #superspreaders. Explaining 2005 paper by @jlloydsmith et al: of eight diseases SARS 2003 had the lowest dispersion factor k (strong tendency for #superspreading) nature.com/articles/natur…. Estimate by @adamjkucharski for SARSCOV2 also low.
Interesting thread by @kakape about #superspreaders. Explaining 2005 paper by @jlloydsmith et al: of eight diseases SARS 2003 had the lowest dispersion factor k (strong tendency for #superspreading) nature.com/articles/natur…. Estimate by @adamjkucharski for SARSCOV2 also low.
Unsere Studie mit @ifo_Institut zeigt: die Interessen von Wirtschaft und Gesundheit treffen sich bei einer #Reproduktionszahl von 0,75. Wird dieser Wert beibehalten, ist der Einfluss der #Coronakrise auf das #BIP am geringsten und die Zahl der #COVID Toten niedrig. #gemeinsam
In Germany a corona crisis response that addresses the needs of Economy and Health is possible: Our study with the @ifo_Institut shows that maintaining a #ReproductionNumber of 0.75 minimises the economic burden and #CovidDeaths remain at a low level. #BIP #GDP @helmholtz_en
In our model new infections can occur during the time individuals are in the carrier (C_I, C_R) and infectious compartments (I_R, I_H, I_x). Thus, reverse calculation of generation time from the prospective daily cases is misleading. secir.theoretical-biology.de #SARSCoV2 #SIRmodel
We are proud to be part of this initiative: The presidents of Germany’s research institutions @helmholtz_en, @maxplanckpress, @Fraunhofer, @LeibnizWGL have issued a joint statement on #covid19 strategies based on mathematical modelling. Great to see researchers united! #SIRmodel
We are proud to be part of this initiative: The presidents of Germany’s research institutions @helmholtz_en, @maxplanckpress, @Fraunhofer, @LeibnizWGL have issued a joint statement on #covid19 strategies based on mathematical modelling. Great to see researchers united! #SIRmodel
If you look at our updated values for R(t) in Germany at gitlab.com/simm/covid19/s… be aware that it is too early to see how the relaxation of lockdown measures influences R(t).
We use our SECIR model to calculate the #ReproductionNumber Rt based on cases reported by RKI. You can find a step by step explanation on gitlab.com/simm/covid19/s…
If you want to look for the impact of policy changes on Rt, be aware that there is a delay of ~10 days. This is due to several factors: The serial interval, the moving average we use, a delay in reporting of cases and a phase in & out behaviour in terms of adherence. #SIRmodel
For Germany, daily updated values for the #SARSCoV2 reproduction number can be found under the link: secir.theoretical-biology.de #COVID19deutschland #SIRmodel #ReproductionNumber
Optimierungsproblem mit zwei Zielen: Gibt es ein gemeinsames Optimum für Gesundheit & Wirtschaft im Umgang mit #SARSCoV2? Wir brauchen eine Zusammenarbeit mit Wissenschaftlern aus der Wirtschaftsmathematik. Aufruf zur Zusammenarbeit von #MeyerHermann in @AnneWillTalk
We got a few questions on our vs @rki_de approach. RKI estimates Rt directly from data. Complementing this approach, we use a mathematical model that in addition to data on reported cases includes a description of dynamic infection processes. See secir.theoretical-biology.de #SARSCoV2
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2K Followers 304 Following Professor at UCLA and proud dad. Infectious disease ecology, evolution, epidemiology (esp zoonoses and emerging infections)Eigentlich saßen wir gestern für eine reguläre Folge @pandemiapodcast zusammen, haben uns dann aber doch entschieden eine Sonderfolge zu #Omikron zwischenzuschieben. Hilft hoffentlich auch in den kommenden Tagen und Wochen die News ein wenig einzuordnen. viertausendhertz.de/pan34/
Michael Meyer-Herrmann bei Lanz:
Bester Fernsehmoment heute: #Hit hard, hit early🔝 #AnneWill #YesToNoCovid
Intensivmediziner Janssens einfach 🔥 "Hit hard, hit early" #AnneWill
1/ Our pre-print on immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 is out today. To our knowledge, this is the largest such study for any acute infection. The upshot is that there is substantial immune memory after COVID-19. Lots of stuff in this manuscript. biorxiv.org/content/10.110… @SetteLab
Zur Eindämmung der Ausbreitung von #SARSCoV2 müssen wir alle an einem Strang ziehen. Übernehmt Verantwortung und ladet euch bitte die #CoronaWarnApp herunter. Lasst uns gemeinsam #COVID19 bekämpfen.
When we don't measure important stuff. A thread about the immune response to #SARSCoV2 1. Since serology/IgG can be readily measured, this is what is conventionally used to assess an individual's response That's a very incomplete picture cell.com/trends/pharmac…
Wie viele Menschen hatten bereits eine #SARSCoV2-Infektion & wie schnell steigt dieser Anteil? Das versuchen HZI-Forscher im Rahmen einer bundesweiten #Antikörperstudie herauszufinden. @JM_Andresen sprach für @tagesschau mit Studienleiter Gérard Krause. tagesschau.de/inland/corona-…
Wildly (or do I mean widely ....) quoted study, whereas its critism got so far not as much mileage.
There has been a claim that #SARSCoV2 has been in circulation in Barcelona in March 2019. This is remarkably implausible. All the genomic evidence available (~100k genomes) points to an origin of the virus around November 2019 in China (e.g. below). (1/6) europepmc.org/article/MED/32…
I do not model because I understood something. I create mathematical models in order to understand something. To be able to trust a mathematical model, its predictions or hypotheses arising from it, you first need to trust the process of modelling.
Das @Helmholtz_HZI sucht Verstärkung für die Abteilung Epidemiologie! Zur Bewältigung von #COVID19 suchen wir mehrere wissenschaftliche MitarbeiterInnen für die Teams #SORMAS und PIA. Wir freuen uns auf euch! Mehr Infos unter helmholtz-hzi.de/de/karriere/jo…
„Bei den aktuell erfreulich niedrigen Infektionszahlen würden wir wohl Jahrzehnte benötigen, um einen solchen Effekt zu sehen", sagt @BrinkmannLab, Forscherin am HZI & @tuBraunschweig, zum Thema Herdenimmunität gegen #SARSCoV2 im Interview @SPIEGEL_Wissen. spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m…
Virologin @BrinkmannLab vom @Helmholtz_HZI dämpft im Interview mit @SPIEGEL_Wissen die Hoffnungen auf eine schnelle Herdenimmunität gegen #SARSCoV2 spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m… (hk)
Nach den Lockerungen der #SARSCoV2-Schutzmaßnahmen der letzten Wochen blieben die Infektionszahlen den Befürchtungen zum Trotz weiterhin niedrig. HZI-Epidemiologin Berit Lange erklärt in @zeitonline_wis warum & warnt dennoch vor einem erneuten Anstieg. zeit.de/wissen/gesundh…
Habt Ihr den HIDA-Livestream von der #rpREMOTE mit Alice McHardy @alicecarolyn und Fabian Theis @fabian_theis verpasst? Jetzt könnt Ihr ihn noch mal auf unserer News-Seite ansehen! @helmholtz_ai @helmholtz_de @Helmholtz_HZI @HelmholtzMunich helmholtz-hida.de/angebote/news/…
Das Immunsystem kann unabhängig von einer Infektion das Lernvermögen beeinflussen - das zeigt eine kürzlich @CellReports veröffentlichte Studie von Prof. Martin Korte & Dr. Shirin Hosseini von der #tubraunschweig. ➡️ lnk.tu-bs.de/eohL4X #InfectionAndTherapeutics
BM @AnjaKarliczek besucht heute das @Helmholtz_HZI in Braunschweig, eines der führenden #Corona-Forschungsinstitute. Es geht u.a. um die mögliche Entwicklung der #Pandemie in Deutschland. Gegen 12.00 Uhr gibt die Ministerin mit Forschern ein Statement ab.
In Germany, #COVID19 case growth declined after three social distancing interventions, detectable in each case at a two-week delay, modeling shows. The approach can be adapted to other countries seeking to understand impacts of levels of social distancing. fcld.ly/acsgs2z
ifo/Helmholtz Studie zeigt Soft Spot Lockerungen bei R-Werten zwischen 0,5-0,9. Darunter verliert Wirtschaft viel Geld, Leben werden aber gerettet. Über 0,9 verliert man noch mehr Geld und tausende Menschenleben. Jetzige Öffnung ist daher an der Obergrenze ifo.de/publikationen/…
@simmgroup @ifo_Institut @Helmholtz_HZI Super, dass diese Disziplinen zusammenführt werden!
Im Zuge der #SARSCoV2-Pandemie rücken Wissenschaftler in den Fokus der medialen Öffentlichkeit. @wisskomm_de befragte Forscher, darunter auch @BrinkmannLab, Virologin am HZI & @tuBraunschweig, was sie motiviert, sich als Experten öffentlich zu äußern. wissenschaftskommunikation.de/corona-pandemi…
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