Ronan Manning @ronanmann
league of ireland + mls enthusiast | macalester ‘25 | analyst @SoccerFedMI Joined August 2015-
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@seidodge draw very likely to see them through as well
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🇨🇻 now just need a point against 🇸🇦 to essentially guarantee their spot in the knockout stage! 🇺🇾 will almost certainly need a result against 🇪🇸 to keep their hopes alive.
@MoeSquare i have them at 37% to advance if they draw this lol
@JuneVanBloem @Ankaman616 and completing some?
Group G in a really interesting place at the halfway point after that draw:
and they say wout weghorst hasn't an influence on the global game
RO32 matches with a >40% chance of occurring: 🇺🇾 v 🇦🇷 (66.2%) 🇺🇸 v 🇧🇦 (60.4%) 🇳🇱 v 🇲🇦 (57.8%) 🇪🇸 v 🇦🇹 (56.9%) 🇸🇪 v 🇫🇷 (49.0%) 🇰🇷 v 🇨🇦 (48.1%) 🇰🇷 v 🇨🇭 (45.3%) 🇯🇵 v 🇧🇷 (43.4%)
RO32 qualification chances after that match: 🇪🇨 82.6% ↘️ 29.2% 🇨🇼 4.0% ↗️ 12.7%
sweden are the second team in world cup history to win their opening match by 4+ goals and then lose their next one by 4+ goals, after... also sweden
@stokaljona not a group stage but it also happened in sweden's first two (completed) games in 1938:
@stokaljona not a group stage but it also happened in sweden's first two (completed) games in 1938:
@Ankaman616 back to regularly scheduled programming
@TheEditorDiary yeah, think the difference in opponent quality makes it worth going for x.com/ronanmann/stat…
A draw on the last day will very likely see both 🇦🇺 and 🇵🇾 through, but there will be a big swing between RO32 opponents for each team depending on result - would expect 🇵🇾 to go for it: 2nd: 🇮🇷 38.1%, 🇪🇬 25.5%, 🇧🇪 24.4%, 🇳🇿 12.0% 3rd: 🇩🇪 48.8%, 🇨🇮 14.6%, 🇫🇷 4.7%, 🇪🇨 2.2%
@Bd_irB_ll yup x.com/ronanmann/stat…
A draw on the last day will very likely see both 🇦🇺 and 🇵🇾 through, but there will be a big swing between RO32 opponents for each team depending on result - would expect 🇵🇾 to go for it: 2nd: 🇮🇷 38.1%, 🇪🇬 25.5%, 🇧🇪 24.4%, 🇳🇿 12.0% 3rd: 🇩🇪 48.8%, 🇨🇮 14.6%, 🇫🇷 4.7%, 🇪🇨 2.2%
A draw on the last day will very likely see both 🇦🇺 and 🇵🇾 through, but there will be a big swing between RO32 opponents for each team depending on result - would expect 🇵🇾 to go for it: 2nd: 🇮🇷 38.1%, 🇪🇬 25.5%, 🇧🇪 24.4%, 🇳🇿 12.0% 3rd: 🇩🇪 48.8%, 🇨🇮 14.6%, 🇫🇷 4.7%, 🇪🇨 2.2%
🇺🇸 now locked into the #1 spot in Group D. Most likely opponents: 🇧🇦 (58.8%), 🇶🇦 (13.7%), 🇪🇨 (7.2%)
@MoeSquare the last 45 has been especially baffling against a 10 man paraguay who aren't really interested in keeping the ball try to get into the box! it's easier to score from there!
@exceedingxpuns like <2.5 xg from those shots too
@R_by_Ryo x.com/ronanmann/stat…
turkey's two shot maps this wc so far - 51 shots, 2.35 xg
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