Rendex @rendeeex
they'll understand it in a year Joined September 2021-
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Rick Rieder oversees $2.7 trillion at BlackRock, and he showed why he only needs to be right about 60% of the time. The other 40% decides whether he survives. The rule came from a mistake right out of school. He bought a bond, the market turned, and he bought more because he was sure he was right. He learned to cut size so no single position could ruin him. Then came Peloton. He was one of its original owners, Covid pushed the company toward a $50 billion valuation, and he held on. The stock later lost more than 90%. His fix is to invest the way a casino runs its tables. Diversify, keep liquid assets, win 60 to 65% of the time across many bets, and use a stop loss. Rieder launched a hedge fund months before the 2008 crisis. BlackRock bought it in 2009, and he has run its bond business since. A household runs on the same math. Your savings rate is one subtraction and one division, and it decides how big a loss you can absorb before a bad month forces you to sell at the bottom. His Hard Lessons interview with Morgan Stanley is free on YouTube and runs 19 minutes. Almost nobody finishes it. He plans an exit for every position he owns. He also says that if you have never missed a flight, you are not taking enough risk.
Phil Ivey has won 11 World Series of Poker bracelets and over $54 million in tournaments. In 2012 he won about $20 million at baccarat, a game of pure chance, without ever touching the cards. The method is called edge sorting. Casino cards are cut unevenly, so a trained eye can tell some of them apart by the pattern on their backs. Ivey asked for things. One brand of cards. The same decks all night. A shuffle machine that keeps cards in order. A Mandarin-speaking dealer, so his companion Cheung Yin Sun could ask her to turn certain cards. Both casinos said yes to everything. He had wired £1 million to Crockfords in London and $3 million to the Borgata in Atlantic City up front. He walked out £7.7 million ahead in London and $9.6 million ahead in Atlantic City. By his own estimate the edge was 5 or 6 percent. Baccarat normally gives the house about 1 percent. The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2017 that it was cheating. A US judge ordered him to return $10.1 million to the Borgata. A house edge is a small percentage applied to every hand. Your savings rate works the same way on every paycheck, one subtraction and one division, and whoever controls that percentage ends up with the money. The full interview is free online. Almost nobody finishes it. Crockfords never paid him a penny of the £7.7 million.
This MIT lecturer explained why most people should think twice before starting a company. The reason is uncomfortable. The man who built a $5 trillion company said he wouldn't do it again. Joe Hadzima opens his MIT course with Jensen Huang. Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993, and in October 2025 it became the first company ever to hit that number. On the Acquired podcast he was asked if he would start a company again. "I wouldn't do it." Building Nvidia was "a million times harder" than he expected, and with all the pain and shame up front, "nobody in their right mind would do it." Then Hadzima puts up the numbers. About 1 in 10 startups succeed. Kleiner Perkins, in his words the most successful long-term VC firm, with all its money and connections, won about 3 times out of 10. Hadzima has been a startup lawyer, co-founder and investor for decades and has run this course since the late 1980s. You don't need to quit your job and bet your savings to build something. A one-person business that sells what you already know costs almost nothing to test. Keep the paycheck until strangers pay you. Then decide how big you want it. Hadzima's full lecture is free on MIT OpenCourseWare and runs 69 minutes. Almost nobody finishes it. Huang got the $5 trillion company. He still said nobody in their right mind would start it.
A Stanford venture capitalist showed how a group of investors got their $5 million back and walked away from a company Elon Musk later bought for $44 billion. In her lecture she sorts every startup portfolio into three groups. Unicorns are the billion-dollar outcomes. Dragon eggs could become one. The walking dead keep operating but will never return the fund. Her example was Odeo, a podcasting startup founded in 2005 with $5 million from Charles River Ventures and angels. That summer Apple put podcasts into iTunes, and Odeo stalled. In 2006 co-founder Evan Williams bought the company back, paying enough to make the investors whole. A side project came with the deal. It was called Twitter, and it went public in 2013. The lecturer is Ernestine Fu. She joined Alsop Louie Partners at 19, while still a Stanford undergrad, and later earned four Stanford degrees, including a doctorate. Most people handle their own small bets the way Odeo's investors did. A stock that went nowhere for three years, a side business that barely covers its costs. The moment it gets back to break-even, they sell to feel safe. Before you cash out of something just to get your money back, write down everything that leaves with it. Fu's full lecture is free on Stanford's YouTube channel and runs 41 minutes. Almost nobody finishes it. Odeo's investors got every dollar back and kept none of Twitter.
Every new hire should watch this lecture before their first boss asks for "just this one weekend." Clayton Christensen spent decades at Harvard explaining how smart companies make logical decisions that destroy them. At LinkedIn, he showed the same math running people's lives. In 1989, U.S. Steel engineers wanted $300 million for a mini mill to make sheet steel. The CFO said no. The old mills sat 30% empty, and one more ton there cost $15. Christensen said that mill would have returned $3 billion over two decades. The cheap option wins every quarter. Use the old mill, the old sales team, the old brand. A startup has none of those, so it builds the new thing and takes the market. He called it marginal cost thinking. Each decision is judged by today's cost, and the full cost, which you almost always pay, shows up years later. He never let it into his own life. At Boston Consulting Group, a manager wanted him in on a Sunday, then a Saturday. He refused both, because life is an endless stream of extenuating circumstances, and a rule is easier to keep 100% of the time than 98%. Decide your lines before the pressure arrives. In the moment, the exception always looks cheap. Your paycheck follows the same math. One subtraction, one division, and each small purchase looks harmless until you add up the year. He gave this talk a year and a half after a stroke, in English he relearned with Rosetta Stone. How many of your "just this once" moments happened more than once this year. The whole talk is attached. Watch it before your next exception.
Stanley Druckenmiller ran Duquesne Capital for 30 years, averaged about 30% a year, and never had a losing year. Two years into the firm, he was going broke. At 27 he was running $6 billion at Pittsburgh National Bank on a $43,000 salary. He bet everything on oil and defense stocks when the Shah fell. It worked, and everyone called him a genius. He says he didn't know any better. A man at a New York dinner offered him $10,000 a month to talk markets. He was worth about four grand. After a year and a half of selling, he had raised $900,000. Two years later his backer was headed to jail over a scheme that hit Chase Bank. Druckenmiller had grown to $7 million at a 1% fee. That was $70,000 in revenue against $160,000 in overhead. He closed the firm in 2010 managing about $12 billion. His method was to put the money in the two or three ideas he believed in most. The present is already in the price, so he looked 18 to 24 months out for where the crowd was wrong. Your paycheck runs on the math he faced in year two. One subtraction, one division. What comes in minus what goes out tells you whether you are building or bleeding. His full talk is free online. Almost nobody finishes it. The man with 30 years and zero down years started out spending more than double what he earned.
Spend ten hours baking a lemon pie and ten hours shaping a mud pie. By a strict labor theory of value, the one under Das Kapital, both are worth the same. Nobody would pay a cent for the mud pie. In 1871, four years after Marx's first volume, a 31-year-old in Vienna named Carl Menger published a book explaining why. An American lecturer in the early 1980s built a talk on it. He opened with a quiz: does the sun go around the earth. Before Copernicus everybody knew it did. He said the class struggle looks just as obvious. Marx wrote that wages and profits stand in inverse proportion, so whatever the owner gains, the worker loses. In 1980 UAW chief Douglas Fraser joined Chrysler's board and vowed to keep the "adversary relationship." That war only makes sense if labor puts value into a thing. Then every profit is stolen labor and every trade has a loser. Menger wrote that value does not exist outside the consciousness of men. Water is precious in a desert and worth little from a canoe on Lake Michigan, with the same labor in every glass. Jevons in England and Walras in Switzerland got there on their own. So a free trade happens only when both sides expect to gain. Your paycheck has the same blind spot. Hours of work set the salary everyone sees, and what you keep comes down to one subtraction and one division. The whole lecture is free online. Almost nobody finishes it. Marx lived twelve more years after Menger's book and never published another volume of Das Kapital.
@verumidest wild shift from the original assumption, really interesting
Jeffrey Pfeffer has taught power at Stanford Business School since 1979 and wrote the book on it, Power: Why Some People Have It and Others Don't. He uses one question about your weekend to show where your next job, raise, or deal will come from. Most of his MBA students answered it wrong. How did you spend your weekend? They spent it partying and skiing with roommates and close friends. So he asked how they planned to make new friends if they spent every free hour with the old ones. For his 1973 paper, sociologist Mark Granovetter asked professional workers in Newton, Massachusetts how they got their jobs. Of those who found work through a contact, about 17% heard from someone they saw often. The other 83% heard from people they saw occasionally or rarely. A 2022 study of 20 million LinkedIn users and 600,000 new jobs found the same pattern. Pfeffer can have lunch with his friends because his job barely depends on anyone. If you want power, he says, figure out who you need to have lunch with. Your paycheck has the same blind spot. Your savings rate is one subtraction and one division, and most people never run it. In the full lecture he lists the reasons smart people never get power. It's free online. Almost nobody finishes it. Five out of six jobs that came through a contact came through someone people barely saw.
A billionaire who built his fortune in one of the riskiest businesses in America says every deal he signs has a second spreadsheet nobody sees. His name is Tilman Fertitta. He took Landry's public in 1993, entered the Texas Business Hall of Fame younger than anyone but Michael Dell, bought the Houston Rockets for $2.2 billion and is worth about $10 billion. His framework fits on a napkin. Show the bank the best case. Keep the worst case for yourself. If the deal dies under the worst case, walk away. He says 90% of the time the worst case is what happens. Rainforest Cafe was his test. In 2000 Landry's agreed to buy it for about $125 million. Rainforest shareholders voted it down. Months later he bought it for $75 million in cash, and he said it came with $15 or $20 million in the bank. He only needed 5 of about 30 locations to survive. Three at Disney, one at the Mall of America, one in Chicago. If those five failed, no deal. His worst failures, he said, came when he believed the pro forma he gave the bank instead of the conservative one he kept. Your money deserves the same second spreadsheet. The raise you expect is the best case. The share of your paycheck you kept last year is the worst case, and one subtraction and one division show you what it is. The interview is free online. Almost nobody finishes it. He says he fears nothing and worries about everything.
An economist explained in under five minutes why Coca-Cola surrendered to its own customers in 79 days. His name is Walter Williams. He grew up in the Philadelphia projects, earned a PhD at UCLA and taught economics at George Mason for four decades. His framework fits on a napkin. Profit tells a company what people want. Loss tells it that it got it wrong. Waste pushes prices above what buyers will pay, and the company goes under. In April 1985 Coca-Cola replaced its 99-year-old formula with New Coke. The company logged over 400,000 angry calls and letters. On July 11 the old Coke was back on shelves. Williams asked who forced that. Congress? The courts? The president? Nobody in Washington. The threat of losses did it. He also defended bankruptcy. When an airline goes under, the planes don't vanish. Somebody else buys them and puts them to better use. Bailouts, subsidies and tariffs, he said, let a company keep wasting resources. His numbers are blunt. Of every dollar a company takes in, about 60 cents goes to wages and about 6 cents stays as after-tax profit. Your paycheck runs on the same math. Whatever stays after spending is your profit margin, and one subtraction and one division tell you if it's 6 cents or zero. The lecture is free online. Almost nobody watches it to the end. His last line was "Don't ever worry about bankruptcy, unless it's your own."
@mmoklaaa perspective on ownership really puts the grind into perspective
A 78-year-old economist stood in front of a room of Capitol Hill interns and took apart the way most people think about their paycheck. He gave the talk in 2014 at the Heritage Foundation. It runs about an hour and costs nothing. His name is Walter Williams. He grew up in the Philadelphia projects, earned a PhD at UCLA, taught economics at George Mason for four decades and wrote a nationally syndicated column. His framework fits on a napkin. Government has no money of its own. Every dollar it hands out, it first takes from someone else. Taxes are a claim on your property. And the first thing you own is yourself. "I belong to Walter Williams." He learned it the hard way. In 1959 he drove a Philadelphia taxi for about $400 a month. Then the Army drafted him at roughly $68 a month, with jail as the alternative. He later said his labor services were confiscated. In 1902, he said, the average American paid about $60 a year to all levels of government. Now it is near $10,000. In 2014 Tax Freedom Day, the date Americans stop working to pay taxes, fell on April 21. Your own paycheck has a second count. Of what lands in your account, how much is still yours in December? One subtraction and one division tell you. The lecture is free online. Almost nobody makes it to the Q&A. Williams spent $300 or $400 on fruit trees he knew he'd never see mature. He died in 2020 at 84.
Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal, wrote Facebook's first outside check in 2004, and built Palantir into a company governments pay to analyze data. In November 2019 he gave the Manhattan Institute's Wriston lecture in New York and explained what happens to anything that refuses to be measured. His target was American exceptionalism. He compared it to the god of the Old Testament: you can't compare anything to him or say anything about his attributes. A country that sees itself that way stops checking its own numbers. "You end up with subways that cost $3.8 billion a mile," he said. People who are exceptionally overweight. People who are exceptionally unselfaware. He said it in the city of East Side Access, which the New York Times called the most expensive mile of subway track on Earth. Parts of the system riders use daily opened in 1904. His fix was modest. Frame problems at the right scale, argue about details, and let America settle for greatness. Money breaks the same way. People know their salary to the dollar and have never measured the share they keep. One subtraction, one division, and most never run it. The full lecture is free online. Almost nobody watches it to the end. Those subway costs were public the whole time. Somebody just had to divide.
Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal and Palantir, started Founders Fund, and in 2004 wrote the first outside check into Facebook: $500,000 for about 10%. In 2014 he stood in front of a Stanford class and built his theory of business on one comparison. Airlines against Google. In 2012, US airlines took in about $195 billion in domestic revenue. Google made just over $50 billion. Ask people which they would rather lose, air travel or search, and almost everyone keeps the planes. Thiel's numbers: over roughly a hundred years, the US airline industry has made about zero in cumulative profit. Companies earn money, go bankrupt, get recapitalized, repeat. The whole industry was worth about a quarter of Google. His formula has two variables. X is the value you create for the world. Y is the percentage of X you keep. They are independent. Einstein gave us special and general relativity and never became a millionaire. The Wright brothers flew the first plane and made no money. Most railroads went bankrupt. Your paycheck follows the same math. Salary is X. What you keep is Y, one subtraction and one division. Plenty of big earners are running an airline. His full Stanford lecture is free on YouTube. Almost nobody finishes it. $195 billion a year in revenue, a century of flying, and the profit column still reads about zero.
David Jerison has taught calculus at MIT since 1981 and holds MIT's top teaching honor. His 18.01 lectures have been free on MIT OpenCourseWare for two decades. In one five-minute stretch he uses freshman calculus on a problem Einstein wrote down. Any hard function near zero is close to a line, and the slope is the derivative. Sine of x is x. One plus x to the r is one plus rx. Then he pulls out a GPS satellite. It orbits at four kilometers a second. Light moves at three hundred thousand. Einstein's time dilation says the onboard clock is T over the square root of one minus v squared over c squared. Hard. One minus u to the negative one half is one plus half u. Two multiplications, one subtraction. Engineers used this line and its cousin from general relativity to set every GPS clock slow before launch. Without that offset your phone drifts ten kilometers a day. The article says one percentage point on your savings rate compounds from tomorrow. That one point is the tangent line to the compounding curve at your current rate. Its slope tells you how many years each point clips off. Jerison's full lesson is free on MIT OpenCourseWare and runs 47 minutes. Almost nobody finishes it. Einstein wrote the formula in 1905. MIT freshmen run it in their heads with a tangent line.
Eddie Woo started filming his math classes for one student too sick from cancer to come to school. That accidental channel has 1.9 million subscribers, and in 2018 he was one of ten worldwide finalists for the $1 million Global Teacher Prize. On those videos he shows teenagers that the compound interest chart in the article is shaped by rules they memorized in year 7 without knowing what they meant. Take one they learned by rote. Two to the power of zero is one. Two is a doubling machine, five is how long you sat inside, thirty-two is how big you came out. If the answer is one, you didn't grow. You were inside for zero seconds. Then negative exponents. Two to the negative one is one-half. Same doubling machine, and you're smaller. You went backwards in time. Same numbers, new meaning. His students had been staring at those characters for years without asking what they described. Compounding is one of four engines of money in the article, and its arithmetic is Woo's. Zero invested for any number of years is still zero. Rate one raised to any power is one. Every year of earning and spending it all is a year at rate one. His full lesson is on YouTube for free and runs eight minutes. Almost nobody clicks it. Australia first heard compounding explained by a math teacher filming for one sick kid.
@verumxbt really shows why diversification is actually a survival skill
@0xKorens seriously such an important distinction to make
Eduardo Briceno left venture capital, co-founded Mindset Works with Stanford psychologist Carol Dweck, and ran it as CEO for 13 years. In his TEDx talk he showed how one compliment turns fifth graders into liars. Dweck and Claudia Mueller gave kids puzzles, then praised them. Some heard "you must be smart at this." Others heard "you must have tried really hard." Asked what to do next, 67% of the "smart" kids picked problems they could ace. Only 8% of the "tried hard" kids did. Then everyone got puzzles that were too hard. Back on easy ones, the "smart" kids did worse than at the start. The "tried hard" kids did better. Asked to report their scores, 38% of the "smart" kids inflated them, against 13% of the rest. Josh Waitzkin, the chess prodigy behind Searching for Bobby Fischer, calls losing his first national championship "the greatest thing that ever happened to me." If you win because you're a winner, he says, a loss makes you a loser. Same with money. Your savings rate is one subtraction and one division, and people who say they're "bad with money" never run it because the number feels like a grade. Run it monthly and it becomes a to-do list. Briceno's talk is 11 minutes and free online. Most people never finish it. The two groups in Dweck's study differed by one sentence of praise.
@0xEndlesss the way you explained probability is haunting
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