MarginMan @0xmarginman

Warren Buffett once put a price tag on a mistake he made at 21, and the number keeps climbing. "I put $2,000 of it into a Sinclair Service Station, which I lost." Buffett, 1998. → The station lost everything. a 20% chunk of his entire net worth, gone. "So the opportunity cost on that money is about $6 billion right now." his own math, back in 1998, when Berkshire was worth a fraction of today. → Scale that same 20% against his net worth now and the number lands closer to $29 billion. the Mistake never shrank. it compounded right alongside everything else he owned. Three years later, at the University of Georgia, he admitted a different kind of mistake stung more. "I probably cost Berkshire at least $5 billion by sucking my thumb when Fannie Mae was having some troubles." → He understood the business cold. he just didn't act. Neither loss ever showed up as a red number in an annual report. there's no line item for money you never made. That's the logic behind his 20-slot punch card idea: imagine every investment you'll ever make for the rest of your life uses one hole, and you only get twenty. You'd stop buying whatever made your neighbor rich last month. every decision would have to survive the knowledge that nineteen chances were all you had left. Which costs more: the position that loses money, or the opportunity that never makes it onto your statement at all?

MarginMan @0xmarginman

2 weeks ago

NEW YORK, SEPTEMBER 2026: GATES PUT A NUMBER ON YOUR JOB. THE REAL LINE WAS BURIED, NOT THE HEADLINE. Bill Gates told The Atlantic this AI shift is "more profound... than anything in my lifetime, by a dramatic amount." Then he got specific: real white-collar disruption within

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NEW YORK, SEPTEMBER 2026: GATES PUT A NUMBER ON YOUR JOB. THE REAL LINE WAS BURIED, NOT THE HEADLINE. Bill Gates told The Atlantic this AI shift is "more profound... than anything in my lifetime, by a dramatic amount." Then he got specific: real white-collar disruption within two years. Blue-collar within four. Most coverage stopped there. I kept reading. Gates also floated "human reserved" jobs — work kept off-limits to AI on purpose, because a human being present is the actual product. His example: child care. Not because a machine can't do parts of it. Because the presence is the point. That's the real dividing line. Not skilled vs. unskilled. Output vs. presence. Sell an output, and AI compresses your price fast. Sell your presence, and it doesn't matter how good the model gets underneath you. Two years isn't much time to figure out which side you're on.

Terminator @TerminatorCV

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2084…

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Peter Thiel just told Mathias Döpfner exactly how this ends, and it is not a soft landing for anyone. "You have basically three choices." Thiel, in a new interview with Döpfner. → Massively cut spending. → Massively hike taxes. → Keep kicking the can down the road. "For close to 20 years, the answer's been #3." he said we've just been borrowing more since the 2008 crisis. "My intuition is we're close to the point where that ends... pushed to socialist levels of taxation or some really tough austerity." Here's what backs him up, and it's worse than his framing. → Gross US debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time this August. → The FY2026 deficit hit $2.1 trillion, 5.8% of GDP, well above the 50-year average of 3.8%. → For the first time on record, interest payments on the debt now cost more than the entire US defense budget. → The CBO projects interest alone hits $2.1 trillion a year by 2036. Thiel gave you door #1, #2, #3. the data says door #3 just ran out of road.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

3 weeks ago

He came back to his own company after 12 years away and tore every wall down by the following Monday. Michael Bloomberg has one hiring rule he has repeated for years: skip the Ivy League resume. "I would like to hire the person whose father never was there, whose mother was in

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Jensen Huang sat down with Jim Cramer and did the math that just reframed every AI stock argument. "One gigawatt rents for $50 billion a year." Huang said it live, straight to camera. → Building that gigawatt costs $50 to $60 billion. renting it out brings back $50 billion a year. call it a one-year payback on the entire build. → McKinsey backs the scale: nearly $7 trillion in data center capex needed worldwide by 2030, $5.2 trillion of that just for AI capacity. Here's the part most recaps skip: McKinsey splits that $7 trillion into four groups, not one hot stock list. → Builders: real estate and construction, about $800 billion. → Energizers: power and grid buildout, about $1.3 trillion. → Technology developers: chips and IT hardware, about $3.1 trillion. Nvidia's own lane. → Operators: hyperscalers and colocation firms running the finished data centers. Huang's quote answers where the money actually sits: compute rents itself out faster than almost anything else in this buildout. That's not a stock tip. it's the ROI math a $4 trillion company just said out loud on live TV.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

4 weeks ago

🚨BREAKING: Trump phoned into Jensen Huang's live interview at the All-In Summit to declare the entire AI-safety debate "a hoax." Monday, Los Angeles. Huang is mid-interview when his phone rings on stage. He puts it on speaker. "The whole thing is a hoax." Trump, live, to the

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He came back to his own company after 12 years away and tore every wall down by the following Monday. Michael Bloomberg has one hiring rule he has repeated for years: skip the Ivy League resume. "I would like to hire the person whose father never was there, whose mother was in a drug treatment program, and he had to go and work three shifts at McDonald's to take care of his siblings." → His reasoning: that person already knows how to grind through bad odds. a Harvard or Yale name on a resume doesn't prove that. → "Don't hire your relative, don't hire your friend, unless you absolutely have to." → In 2019, he told The Investor's Podcast about returning to Bloomberg LP after 12 years as mayor and finding that 12 senior executives had quietly built private conference rooms next to their desks, family photos and all. → By the next Monday, the walls were gone. no exceptions, not even for himself. What most retellings skip: Bloomberg LP has stayed private through all of this. nearly 20,000 employees, 192 locations, and Bloomberg himself still owns roughly 85% of it. No IPO, no board of outside shareholders to vote the walls back up. the guy who tore them down also made sure nobody outside the company could ever put them back.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

4 weeks ago

Watch the anchors' faces in the first three seconds. That's what a market breaking live sounds like. This is CNBC, October 2008, right after futures hit something most traders had never seen. S&P futures had just hit "limit down" before the opening bell. Back then that meant a

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@TerminatorCV

September 15, 2026: the Senate needs 60 votes to keep crypto's biggest bill alive. The CLARITY Act would finally split crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC instead of leaving it in legal limbo. In July 2025, the House passed it 294 to 134. All 216 Republicans voted yes, joined by 78 Democrats. In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced its own version, 15 to 9. The holdup since then has been ethics provisions tied to the Trump family's crypto holdings, plus fights over stablecoin rewards and DeFi carve-outs. VP JD Vance has called crypto a "$3 trillion industry." He has warned that the US risks chasing it offshore without clear rules. But he has never put a number on what that clarity is worth to any individual investor. Neither has anyone else credible. September 15, 2:15pm ET, is a cloture vote on the motion to proceed. It is not final passage. It only decides whether debate opens back up before the midterms eat the calendar. Industry insiders are already split on whether the bill survives 2026 at all. Regulatory clarity moves capital. It does not mint millionaires by itself. Anyone telling you it does is selling something.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

a month ago

Florida, 2025: Forbes confirmed the man who says money stops mattering at $100 million is worth $1.5 billion. John Morgan runs Morgan & Morgan, the largest personal injury law firm in the US. "What's the difference between $100,000,000 and $1,000,000,000 if you get rid of boats

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@devb332

@mmoklaaa

@lctrnotes

@cortexxbt cash isn't dry powder—it's risk management. I am agree with it

WARREN BUFFETT CALLS THE STOCK MARKET A CHURCH WITH A CASINO ATTACHED He's sitting on a record $397 billion in cash, the largest pile in Berkshire's history, and hasn't been a net buyer of stocks in 14 straight quarters. At Berkshire's May 2026 annual meeting, he said it plainly: "WE'VE NEVER HAD PEOPLE IN A MORE GAMBLING MOOD THAN NOW." He said many stock prices look "awfully silly" right now, even with $70 to $80 billion he'd love to put to work. The S&P 500's forward P/E is near 32. Its inflation-adjusted CAPE ratio is above 41, close to the dot-com peak. Margin debt across US investors just hit a record $1.5 trillion. History rhymes here. Buffett held 50% cash before the 2000 crash. 60% cash before 2008. His current cash-to-portfolio ratio is the highest of his career. No dollar collapse. No Bank of Japan leak. Just the world's most patient investor saying the prices in front of him don't add up yet. WHEN BUFFETT SITS ON HIS HANDS THIS HARD, IT'S USUALLY NOT BECAUSE NOTHING SCARES HIM. IT'S BECAUSE EVERYTHING IS PRICED FOR NOTHING TO.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

a month ago

CASINOS PAY QUANTS $800K A YEAR TO STOP THIS EXACT EXPLOIT. WAS THIS GENIUS ARBITRAGE OR CHEATING? Don Johnson took Atlantic City for $15 million. He never counted a single card. No sleight of hand. No illegal tech. Just raw negotiation. He convinced desperate casinos to give

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@valuationlabco

@buffexx

@0xfinnup

@cortexxbt

⚠️ Something just flipped in the world's reserve system, and no government announced it. China just hit 22 straight months of gold buying, the longest streak on record. SO IS CHINA ACTUALLY BUILDING A NEW GOLD STANDARD TO REPLACE THE DOLLAR? Not officially, no. Its U.S. Treasury holdings have fallen to an 18-year low. Hong Kong launched a government-backed gold clearing system in July. It's linked directly to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the first physical gold "Delivery Connect" ever built between the two markets. At the BRICS summit on September 13, Xi Jinping announced China will take the rotating presidency. He called for a third "golden decade" of BRICS cooperation. State media never mentioned a gold standard, a BRICS Pay system, or any move off the dollar. The "golden decade" line was about 20 years of partnership, not currency policy. There's also no evidence of a single $70 billion Treasury dump. What's confirmed is a slow, multi-year decline to that 18-year low, not a headline sell-off. Here's what is real and already measurable: gold now makes up 27% of global official reserves, versus 22% for Treasuries, according to the European Central Bank's own June 2026 report. Reserve currencies don't collapse on a headline. They erode one central bank purchase at a time, and the data says that erosion is already underway.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

a month ago

2017, Tokyo: Softbank puts $700 million into Nvidia. January 2019: Masayoshi Son sells the entire stake for $3.3 billion. calls it a win. books the profit. I checked what that decision actually cost before writing this. By 2024, that same 4.9% Nvidia position would have been

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@buffexx

@EagleVisions

@mmoyshaa

@0xfinnup

@0xKorens

@cortexxbt @buffexx 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Watch the anchors' faces in the first three seconds. That's what a market breaking live sounds like. This is CNBC, October 2008, right after futures hit something most traders had never seen. S&P futures had just hit "limit down" before the opening bell. Back then that meant a hard price limit on overnight futures. Once it hit, trading froze. Nobody could buy, sell, or find a real price until the limit reset. It wasn't the crash stopping. It was a wall that delayed the fall by a few minutes. Regulators eventually noticed the same thing I'd point out today: static price limits don't stop panic, they just relocate it a few minutes down the road. By 2012 they scrapped that system. They replaced it with the Limit Up-Limit Down plan, which pauses individual stocks instead of freezing the whole futures market at once. Here's my own read on this clip. The mechanism changed. The human reflex in that room didn't. In 2008, panic took minutes to spread trader to trader on a floor. Today it spreads in milliseconds, through algorithms, 0DTE options flow, and passive funds all rebalancing in the same direction at once. Margin debt sits at a record $1.5 trillion right now. The next real stress test won't look like this footage. It'll look like this footage, compressed into the time it takes you to read this sentence.

MarginMan @0xmarginman

4 weeks ago

⚠️ Something just flipped in the world's reserve system, and no government announced it. China just hit 22 straight months of gold buying, the longest streak on record. SO IS CHINA ACTUALLY BUILDING A NEW GOLD STANDARD TO REPLACE THE DOLLAR? Not officially, no. Its U.S.

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