Bryan Haywood @packfan98
Joined December 2009-
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@WxSouth Thanks Robert! Many folks would love to see you start posting on the American Weather Forums again. Bring back Einstein!
@WxSouth How does the NAO go from off the charts negative to positive in one day? Looks highly questionable.
@WxSouth Do you think the storm will be a true miller A, cutoff bowling ball, or some type of miller B? Big implications for SE weather!
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The 12z GFS was a snow weenies dream. Looking at the ensemble, this is a fantastic look for SE/NC. 50/50 low and west-based -NAO, ridge out west and gulf low. Almost worried about suppression but you know it comes north. Feb 19-21 is now on watch.
Um...this is what a significant SSW looks like (GFS run)
Another sunny day. Enjoy it! We're in the middle of a 9-day dry stretch.
The stratosphere is 'doing its job.' Now to get the other pieces to fall into place to deliver winter storms
It doesn’t have to propagate as the -NAO is already forming. It only helps to foster its development. This is a fallacy that is routinely spread. One size doesn’t fit all
@griteater It will be April by the time it propagates winter will be over
I'm not really in the business of getting people's hopes up... We're in the middle of a 2 year snow drought. Some people would kill for snow. The pattern looks good mid-February and beyond, but they don't always produce. We'll take it one day at a time!
So there’s 3 ways we can get cold and the modeling is missing all 3: 1) Classic HP anchored over the NE feeding cold air into CAD areas 2) 50/50 low or storm system over Maine feeding cold SW thru the lower levels at 850mb 3) A late phase, resulting in a paste bomb sub 990mb low
**Old run from this AM, 00z ICON analysis: Notice the tilt of the ridge LEFT of the Great Lakes, allows energy to dig SW over NY, this phases with ULL energy over NC ➡️ 981mb low bomb off coast, and a big snow over NC. If NS energy can sneak in this way, a phase can save the day.
I'm bullish
While warm air dominates the headlines into early February across North America, those declaring winter over are in for a very rude awakening. The gradually retracting Pacific Jet and slow moving MJO should begin to encourage the return of high-latitude blocking by 2/15.
@12_mehtab @packfan98 @CMorganWX Oh buddy you haven’t seen the long term trends
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