Macrotool @macrotool
trade by trade Joined May 2011-
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Holy shit. The dude calling the cops needs a good face stump. Damn. People have gone insane
Nice flow
Satya Nadella just posted something that validates the entire AI buildout thesis from the very top of the stack. The model is commoditizing. The durable value is the learning loop a company builds on top of the model. He splits it into two assets: Human capital -- the
This why they deservedly won. They are Fucking savages. 🤌🤌🤌 You thought Trump was a savage in dealing with the press. 🤣
This El Niño thing in relation to Agriculture prices smells like a whatever burger. 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 apparently were very strong El Niño years. Yet, did not see much explosive agri prices those years…
👍👍👍👍😱🤣
🇮🇷🇺🇸 BREAKING: Iran's Mehr News Agency has released all 14 clauses of the MoU with the U.S.: 1: Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2: The US commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the
The Golden Age
we spent a bunch of money bombing them so that we can give them a bunch of money to rebuild. in the meantime we let them close the strait and do a global energy tax hike #winning
Lol and you think Israel will just let this pass. Dudes we are back to square one within two weeks. Even with signing. Save this tweet.
😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
we spent a bunch of money bombing them so that we can give them a bunch of money to rebuild. in the meantime we let them close the strait and do a global energy tax hike #winning
🤣🤣
There will be no more negotiations for now.
Starting to understand why his investors freaked out when he went for the jugular in 2008. This guy just doesn’t give up 🤣🤣🤣😱😱 cut the loss already bro
Michael Burry added to $PYPL, saying the market has been “attending PayPal’s wake for years” while the company buys back stock “hand over fist.” He also added to $ADBE calling Adobe a “clear deep-value opportunity” with gross margins near all-time highs.
I sold asml 5 months ago because I thought it was too expensive. 🤡 Another lesson learned. Better to stick and use trailing stops on stuff you hold and is expensive with awesome short term drivers (eps revisions, acceleration actuals, price mom,…)
@hollertotide @fivepointscap lol we are! Sorry to fivepoints. Did not mean to be degrading. I was too direct. Just from experience I know univariate charts don’t tell everything in terms of relative value. Anyway. Always open to learn and accept other opinions also.
These scatterplots always miss the point. Its univariate. Run Meli in a multi regression on expected sales growth, expected nopat margin, wacc, and reinvestment rates. Meli has been popping out as way too expensive for 2 years now in correct relative value screens.
$SE $MELI very attractive here. I’m not sure why they’re so cheap, maybe it’s that all the EM growth allocation is going into semis?
@DavidTaggart Lol. Quite amazing is it! Guess the lesson indeed is that multiples and prices both look forward on the near term (eps revision, eps acceleration, momentum, macro, industry), but definitely also discount long term terminal value moat threats whatever current fundamentals.
This
Thoughts on $ADBE $ADBE is one of the most fascinating stocks in the market today because it highlights one of the most important lessons in investing. It continues to execute at a high level. Revenue continues to grow, margins remain exceptional, free cash flow is enormous,
Stolen. h/t to forget his name. But this is me. I’ve got 7% semis. 🥹Holy shit we missed a super bull by focussing on Hormuz. Never again. 🤣🤣 bro. Even after knowing the stats on geopolitical events (most are just bullish after a dip), still thinking this time different. 🤡
@hollertotide @fivepointscap Anyway. We can both be right. I still believe there is 15%-20% downsides short term. But what does it matter for a 5 year potential buyer? S🙂
@hollertotide @fivepointscap So two models. Two different answers. But that’s alright I guess. The relative model shows me current potential mispricing. And intrinsic shows there is potential for long term buyers. Just gonna take a while (6m-12m) maybe before Meli really turns and margins improve again.
@hollertotide @fivepointscap Please make the distinction between Relative Value pricing. And Intrinsic Value Modeling. Both can turn out different answers. And both serve different purposes: searching for shorter term misspricing. And searching for longer term value (5y plus horizons)
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