Robert Podolski @macman
Lifelong student of the market. Helping investors navigate changing market phases while avoiding catastrophic drawdowns Because survival comes before prosperity New York, New Jersey Joined March 2009-
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Why SPMO? It holds the strongest momentum stocks in the S&P 500, making it a great proxy for institutional risk appetite. My checklist: C3 >50%, C20 >50-60%, and SPMO above its trend sleeve. Today momentum is improving. A breakout above 156 would confirm it. Also we need sectors
Most traders ask, “What should I buy?” I ask, “Is this a market where buying is likely to be rewarded?” Every day I measure market leadership, participation, and trend before taking trades. I’ll be sharing my daily Market Diagnostic System (MDS). Follow along.
Twister MDS: DEFENSIVE Leadership has contracted and growth participation has collapsed. My playbook today: Reduce position size. Focus on stocks with exceptional relative strength. Avoid chasing breakouts. Wait for C3 and C20 to improve before becoming aggressive.
Not much action. still sitting in the range. not bearish not bullish short term.
So where are we? Well stoch on C3 and C20 starts curling up and C3 is on. Market is waking up C3 is really market engine. C20 is participation of leaders. If they both are on shouldn't you be?
Trend is not dead yet. Spmo bouncing. Some sectors still green. Let's see what c20 and c3 is goin to do tomorrow. If they go green time to add to positions.
Trend intact. I wouldn't go aggressive here. Participation seem to be curling up but C20 is not there yet. Why is C20 important? C20 are the largest stocks that institutions like. If institutions don't buy them you have no business in being in them
Lesson I've learned: Price tells you what is happening. Participation tells you how healthy it is $SPMO is breaking higher, but only 9 of 20 key leaders are participating Trend = up Internal strength = improving, not fully confirmed. If leadership > 50% I will be adding positions
A stock can swim against the current for a while. An entire market cannot. Follow participation, not opinions. Market is in trend. Possible bounce from support tomorrow.
Roc. Market in good condition almost in full readable participation. Other segments of the market getting ready. (Yellow color) That might mean solid broad rally. We will see in a few days. Right now tech is hot. Its time to participate in institution strength.
The market is starting to look much healthier It's no longer just semis doing the heavy lifting. More sectors are beginning to participate, leadership is expanding, and both C20 and C3 Stochastics are curling higher. That doesn't guarantee a new uptrend, but it does tilt the odds
Capital moving to e different table in the casino. Much less at tech table. If it breaks down current small range I an GTFO,
ROF!!!!! Next day will tell if this is time to GTFO or add to it. Participation is low at this point.
Time to trim!!!!! ROC just flipped to DEFENSIVE. C3: 0/3 C20: 8/20 (40%) Breadth remains positive, but leadership has deteriorated sharply. My framework isn't asking me to predict. It's asking me to respect the evidence. Defense first. Opportunity later.
Who is moving the market? Should you follow them? I hope you are not that guy on the ladder :)
Follow capital. Follow leadership. Follow participation. The trend usually takes care of itself. Today. Some weakness in leaders participation but looking OK. Health socks waking up? Check their leaders to see :)
So we have a bit of softness but participation of leaders is still intact. Wouldn't sell anything yet. If leaders want to go up I want to catch the ride :)
Markets don't move in a straight line. Simple approach: •ROC →Seek growth •ROV →Stay invested, but be selective •ROF →Stay invested, but prioritize defense I don't try to predict the future. I identify the environment and adapt. The key is knowing which game you're playing.
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