Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter
Financial Advisor for Wealth Builders and Entrepreneurs | Founder of Ivory Hill | Pension Advisor | RiskSIGNAL™ | https://t.co/djSE20syjz ivoryhill.com/kurt Minneapolis, MN Joined May 2014-
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CAPITAL PRESERVATION SHOULD BE YOUR #1 OBJECTIVE FOR 2024-2025 The media continues to focus more and more on AI and raised year-end targets for the S&P 500 and less and less on the yield curve. Given the significant and extended inversion of the yield curve and deteriorating…
Agree: "we are not in a real bull market until small caps can hold an uptrend."
Agree: "we are not in a real bull market until small caps can hold an uptrend."
Small-business delinquency rate climbed to a 3-year high. 43% of small businesses could not pay their rent in April, the highest delinquency rate since 2021. Small businesses employ 46% of the United States and contribute over 40% of US GDP. As I have said for the last 2…
Why You Should Care About the Yen Carry Trade 🇯🇵 Last week, the yen hit a 34-year low against the greenback, signaling much more than just currency volatility. Here's a deep dive into how this could massively impact your portfolio 🧵
The currency crisis in Japan is currently one of the biggest triggers of market volatility. The easiest way for the BOJ to save the yen would be to start closing the gap on rates, which means hiking rates. However, the Japanese economy has delivered negative economic growth in…
🔴 Short-term 🔴 Mid-term 🟢 Long-term
Despite rising bond yields, tech sector net margins are projected to hit all-time highs by end of 2024, supporting risk assets' resilience. This week saw growth stocks significantly outperform value stocks even as valuations adjust to interest rate shifts.
Margins are a key gauge of profitability that historically offers a signal on where a stock is headed. Rising commodity prices are eroding margin improvement, which isn’t priced into expectations at all.
Dr. Copper prices have surged to $10,000 per ton, marking the 1st time in 2 years. This significant price increase is attributed to a historic squeeze on the supply of mined ores, which threatens to push the market into a major deficit. Investor demand further fuels the rally.
Goldman's IPO Issuance Barometer is at its highest since Feb 2022, signaling a ripe market for IPOs. Would you go public at this point in the cycle?
We are still fully invested in this market We are sitting on a little gunpowder after we got stopped out of $TNA 2 weeks ago, today's movement was positive but not strong enough for an entry point. Short-term: 🟢 on yesterday’s close. Mid-term: 🔴 but looks like it might flip…
The $SPX has been caught in a tight 4,965-5,085 range pre-Core PCE. A breakout could push a measured move target of 5,205, but a break below? Could be a measured move target of 4,865.
Traders now betting on the first Fed rate cut in December. Quite the pivot from January's fantasy of 7 cuts. 😂😂
🏠 38% of homeowners say they couldn't afford to buy their own homes in today's market. Housing = lookout below.
He is stealing from @leadlagreport and @kurtsaltrichter
The consumer is NOT strong. The US personal savings rate is down to 3.6% while total consumer credit outstanding has ballooned to 5 TRILLION. Conditions are only getting worse.
Is bad news good or bad for stocks? Expect initially lower yields and higher stock prices. However, it's important to recognize that poor economic data will have a detrimental effect on stocks in the long term. A slowdown in growth leading to earlier-than-anticipated rate cuts…
Credit card debt has skyrocketed above $1 TRILLION. Personal savings rates have fallen to 4%. The consumer is NOT strong! This will end the same way it always does.
Investor sentiment swiftly shifted from predominantly "greed" throughout Q1 to "fear" in Q2, maintaining pressure on the highly saturated "short volatility" trade. A further squeeze on volatility shorts would push the $SPX to retest its Q2 lows, dropping below 5,000.
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