John Roberts @john_actuary
Actuary for far too many years. Welsh, but now live in the spiritual home of the Wurzels out west. Don’t think I’ve got the accent yet. Like zider though... Joined April 2019-
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Age-standardised mortality rates year-to-date remain among the lowest seen (though last 3 weeks distorted by B/Hols). CMI analysis directly compares mortality rates each year - there is no baseline. Source: CMI Mortality Monitor; based on registrations actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f…
An expected "BH catch-up" jump in weekly registered deaths, but it's clear that's all it is. (Indeed, the last three weeks are still around 8% lower than the previous three.) As usual the age-standardised cumulative YTD view from CMI will be along later today.
An expected "BH catch-up" jump in weekly registered deaths, but it's clear that's all it is. (Indeed, the last three weeks are still around 8% lower than the previous three.) As usual the age-standardised cumulative YTD view from CMI will be along later today.
Astonishing comment from Vennells, and even more astonishing that she wrote it down. A leader suggesting a lawyer should put their professional conduct requirements and integrity to one side to suit the business may give a clue where much of the culpability for the scandal lies.
Astonishing comment from Vennells, and even more astonishing that she wrote it down. A leader suggesting a lawyer should put their professional conduct requirements and integrity to one side to suit the business may give a clue where much of the culpability for the scandal lies.
I’m sure some of us of a certain age will find this brings back some if not many memories.
I’m sure some of us of a certain age will find this brings back some if not many memories.
Age standardised mortality rates are close to the lowest seen at this stage of the year, although expect a bit of an uptick next week, as the two Easter BH's are caught up in the first full working week after Easter.
Age standardised mortality rates are close to the lowest seen at this stage of the year, although expect a bit of an uptick next week, as the two Easter BH's are caught up in the first full working week after Easter.
Registered deaths continue to be below ONS' benchmark, although like last week it's difficult to read too much into it, due to BH distortions. As usual the CMI age-standardised cumulative position for 2024 will be available later on.
Registered deaths continue to be below ONS' benchmark, although like last week it's difficult to read too much into it, due to BH distortions. As usual the CMI age-standardised cumulative position for 2024 will be available later on.
Eligible people can now book their spring #COVID19 vaccine online or via the #NHSapp 📱 Appointments will start from MONDAY 22 APRIL 🗓️ Find out more and book now at: nhs.uk/conditions/cov…
Q1 age-standardised mortality in line with the best pre-COVID year (2019), but read the thread for more insight on differences by age group. Notwithstanding some reservations it’s not a bad place to be in given recent history and current health challenges.
Q1 age-standardised mortality in line with the best pre-COVID year (2019), but read the thread for more insight on differences by age group. Notwithstanding some reservations it’s not a bad place to be in given recent history and current health challenges.
ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 29 Mar. 9,389 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week. The number of death registrations was affected by the Good Friday bank holiday. Year-to-date there have been 155,093 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.
Great to be in the same park as Emma - means I get to see some proper shots from a professional rather than just my amateur attempts!
Great to be in the same park as Emma - means I get to see some proper shots from a professional rather than just my amateur attempts!
Miraculously the clouds cleared in time for my third solar eclipse. Prefer to soak up the spectacle than spend time fiddling with a camera but 4 mins totality gave time for a few quick phone shots. #eclipse2024 #Dallas
Age-standardised mortality rates this week and year-to-date remain among the lowest seen at this time of year. This CMI analysis directly compares mortality rates each year - there is no baseline. Source: CMI Mortality Monitor; based on registrations actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f…
ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 22 March. 11,249 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week, which is 6% lower than expected. Year-to-date there have been 145,705 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.
Retweeting this because the WASPI woman with three properties, two bought with cash, who wants compensation for not checking her state pension age before making such huge financial decisions, will never not be a head shaker.
Retweeting this because the WASPI woman with three properties, two bought with cash, who wants compensation for not checking her state pension age before making such huge financial decisions, will never not be a head shaker.
I’d be interested to see a similar analysis of prices charged too…
After 4 years the last weekly update to hospital COVID admissions. I’d like to add my thanks to all those Stuart lists in the thread, and of course add him to that list too, as he’s done a sterling job updating his graphs and providing accompanying analysis over that period.
After 4 years the last weekly update to hospital COVID admissions. I’d like to add my thanks to all those Stuart lists in the thread, and of course add him to that list too, as he’s done a sterling job updating his graphs and providing accompanying analysis over that period.
I feel a parallel with WASPIs in this story. We’ve seen similar stories of denied boarding for a couple of years, and there was a lot of publicity at the time. Yet people think it’s someone else’s fault. Eg “it’s a technicality airlines should deal with” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Hospital admissions with COVID in England decreased by 15% in-week. R-estimate has fallen to 0.9. Admissions remained flat in the East but fell elsewhere. Largest decreases in the Midlands (-30%) and NE&Yorks (-24%) Acute bed occupancy is down by 13%.
As noted earlier cumulative age-standardised mortality rates continue at relatively low levels - consistent with 2019 and pre-COVID 2020 experience, albeit a little higher than 2022 at this point in the year.
As noted earlier cumulative age-standardised mortality rates continue at relatively low levels - consistent with 2019 and pre-COVID 2020 experience, albeit a little higher than 2022 at this point in the year.
Death counts remain well below expected, as we've seen all this year. (For those complaining that the ONS has changed the goalpost with its new methodology, the CMI year by year comparison later today should confirm that mortality rates this year are tracking very low.)
Death counts remain well below expected, as we've seen all this year. (For those complaining that the ONS has changed the goalpost with its new methodology, the CMI year by year comparison later today should confirm that mortality rates this year are tracking very low.)
Prof. Christina Pagel @chrischirp
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0 Followers 222 FollowingProf. Christina Pagel @chrischirp
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336K Followers 548 Following Understand deeply how the world works today to navigate the world of tomorrow. Join 80k ppl in my free newsletter:Labour AND Conservative Party policy, folks…
@HugoGye So more above inflation increases for a relatively well off (in aggregate) generation, paid for by those struggling to get on the housing ladder, paying off student loans, etc etc. Generational inequity at its finest.
As well as not putting down things in emails that you don't want to be read out in court / the Horizon Public Inquiry, it's also probably wise to avoid Comic Sans.
Delighted to be at #RCPMed24 speaking on a panel on health inequalities. Report from @HealthFdn projecting widening of disparities projected in 2040 We need significant investment in prevention are care to allow NHS to cope @Ann__Raymond @RCPhysicians
Politician vs experienced mortality expert actuary. I can’t watch…
I believe this statement is incorrect and contradictory to statistics published by @NISRA. The statistics show 106 excess deaths in 15 weeks, not 500. The old method (which he is quoting) gave an inappropriately higher excess as it didn't control for the ageing population.
A teeny bit of sun and the wind has dropped but still having to risk frostbite removing glove for photos.
I believe this statement is incorrect and contradictory to statistics published by @NISRA. The statistics show 106 excess deaths in 15 weeks, not 500. The old method (which he is quoting) gave an inappropriately higher excess as it didn't control for the ageing population.
Northern Ireland has now reached 502 excess deaths in 2024. Whilst we have been experiencing excess deaths for some two years now, this time last year that total was 117 and it took us until week ending 24 Nov to reach 503 excess deaths. I call once again for an investigation
@whippletom That boy really needs to find a stable relationship.
ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 12 Apr. 12,332 deaths were registered in England and Wales this week. This includes some catchup of death registrations after Easter bank holidays. Year-to-date there have been 177,130 deaths registered, 7% fewer than expected.
Very sorry to read of the death of Frank Field. He will be remembered for many things but as well as encouraging me early in my career I think of his work in defence of BHS pension scheme members which made a huge difference
@john_actuary @fascinatorfun Wow! This smacks of all that is wrong with the world imo. Full credit to the lawyer who put professional conduct & integrity before the business.
@john_actuary Reminds me of the teleconference between NASA and Morton Thiokol the night before the Challenger Disaster. A Senior Thiokol Executive told an engineer who was wavering about authorising the launch “Take off your engineer’s hat and put on your management hat!” 🤬
@john_actuary @Frances_Coppola That piece of text tells you everything you need to know about Vennells’ integrity and moral fibre. Dreadful, but sadly, I rather suspect all too common in senior executives.
@john_actuary Vennells pretends to be Christian and a pillar of the church but clearly has no integrity at all and is delighted to bear false witness against her neighbours. She should return the bonuses she was paid.
Not just that. Vennell’s also opined on the Second Sight report saying “if this had been in the civil service we would’ve had more control!” How very very Tory Gov. Rwanda is safe even if it isn’t because we control what amounts to “safe” Rotten .
Astonishing comment from Vennells, and even more astonishing that she wrote it down. A leader suggesting a lawyer should put their professional conduct requirements and integrity to one side to suit the business may give a clue where much of the culpability for the scandal lies.
@john_actuary That is so telling. In my previous incarnation I occasionally came across clients who would try to push you over ethical boundaries and it was always a major red flag.
Discussions on integrity from a potential candidate for Bishop of London. It would appear that integrity to Vennells is what Father Ted would call an ecumenical matter.
Astonishing comment from Vennells, and even more astonishing that she wrote it down. A leader suggesting a lawyer should put their professional conduct requirements and integrity to one side to suit the business may give a clue where much of the culpability for the scandal lies.
@DanNeidle And she wrote it down! Usually you'd be trying to suggest that this was her attitude by implication from the surrounding documents. Not by an admission.