Joshua B. Miller @jben0
A/Prof, Econ, U. Melbourne (@unimelb), Australia | behavioral/experimental economics | stat/exp methods | 🇺🇸 OAK→SBA→MSP→MXP→SFO/ALC→MEL 🇦🇺 joshua-benjamin-miller.com Earth Joined November 2012-
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@littmath @ben_golub @NoahJSnyder @MtgJulian ... which is that more shooters are directionally "hot" than you would expect by chance. Finding P(Proportion(H|H)<p) is critical for establishing the chance baseline used in that basic test. /end
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@littmath @ben_golub @NoahJSnyder @MtgJulian Yeah, it's connected, but not equivalent. It is related to the incorrect assumptions used to test the hot hand. It focuses on one of the asymmetric features of the sampling distribution for Prop(H|H). It is a critical fact we leverage for one of our initial results.... /1
@NoahJSnyder "any given sequence" is a loose way of saying "a sequence selected at random"
Haven't been on Twitter for a good few years Nice problem. How does it connect to the hot hand? Alice wins ⟺ #HH < #HT ⟺ #HH + #HH < #HH + #HT ⟺ #HH/(#HH + #HT) < 1/2 ⟺ Proportion(H|H) < 1/2 ... 🧵/1 (ht: @benleo_econ in Melbourne)
The correct answer is “Bob.” Congrats to the 10% who got it right — those few brave dreamers.
@pontific8 "In October, Musk hinted that accounts that had been dormant for more than a year might also be at risk." I lost all my Hotmail contacts/messages this way back in the day. businessinsider.com/elon-musk-dele…
Haven't logged into Twitter in over a year. Tweeting to keep the account active, just in case.
@pontific8 @emollick sweet! that's @GM_Invernizzi 's master's thesis!
@LonesSmith unironically, I mean (like Ert Malley)
@LonesSmith indeed, never too late for that work to become a classic (ironically)
One of the best stories from Australia I have heard so far
an archived interview with the creators: abc.net.au/archives/80day…
a clip from: allpoetry.com/Ern-Malley there is a beauty and truth in this troll. Applies more broadly
Joshua B. Miller retweeted
Over the past few days I've seen a lot of economists tweet about Arlotti's decision. However, none of them really explained what the expected outcomes of either choice, in particular that of remaining a soccer pro, were. A quick explainer 🧵👇
nice point, and fascinating thread
@philipcball @Richvn @QuantaMagazine I think a lot of work in genetics, molecular and cell biology and biochemistry has used artificial manipulations to force strong responses from the system that make things look more specific and linear than they really are...
@koenfucius @econnaturalist agree; not obvious relative to their level of attention
Joshua B. Miller retweeted
Fresh out of Man Sci today, an article by @ravivmg on women in tech. Raviv matches candidates self reported programming skills to observed programmings skills from open source code to see how self-reported skills vary from observed skills. You know where this is going...
Joshua B. Miller retweeted
After advising PhD & Master students for over a decade, there is one thing I find most students need to unlearn: the half-ass work mentality acquired during years of tests and homework. Let me explain (thread 🧵). 1/N #AcademicTwitter
Ben Golub @ben_golub
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