intrinsicvaluelens @intValueLens
Long-term equity research. Cash flow, capital allocation, and risk. No hype. No investment advice. Joined November 2025-
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Stocks go up and down every day. Companies change over quarters and years. If you focus on daily price movements, you'll make bad decisions. If you focus on business fundamentals, you'll make better ones. Same investment. Different lens. Different outcomes.
Most investors underestimate how long good businesses stay good.
Short-term thinking feels productive. Long-term thinking actually is.
Durable economics beat clever narratives.
Investing is easier when you stop trying to be clever.
Narratives explain price moves. Numbers explain outcomes.
@iancassel Finding those few isn’t luck. It’s years of reading filings, tracking fundamentals, and watching how capital allocation plays out over cycles. Long-term winners usually tell you who they are—slowly.
Most “bad” quarters look obvious in hindsight. Filings usually show them forming early.
Great businesses don’t need perfect conditions to perform.
Price moves fast. Business fundamentals move slowly.
The biggest investing risk isn’t volatility. It’s impatience.
@TheTimeInvestor As the larger public companies become more capital-intensive with AI infrastructure, I would be curious what this chart looks like in the future. $GOOG spent $32 billion on capex in 2023, $53 billion in 2024, and had already spent $48 billion through the first 3 quarters of 2025
@TheTimeInvestor Worth asking how much of this is behavior vs. business mix. As capital-light firms make up a larger share of public market value, CapEx mechanically falls as a % of capital deployment. The real question isn’t “why less CapEx,” but whether incremental returns still justify it.
The market is emotional. Cash flow is not.
@KobeissiLetter And investors will have more AI. Maybe even too much of it.
@KoyfinCharts The food is pretty good though!
Most investors don’t lose money because they’re wrong. They lose money because they react to narratives instead of numbers.
One reason filings matter so much: They don’t care how a company feels — only how it performs.
The market loves narratives. Filings love numbers. Over time, the numbers usually win. $META 🧵
The advantage isn’t predicting the next narrative. It’s understanding the numbers well enough to ignore it.
Price follows narrative in the short run. Price follows numbers in the long run.
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