Water Bear Investing @hsudavy
Joined February 2015-
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@Uzocapital Dear Uzo, what makes you certain about the topline growth? Is hybrid work really necessary? Does productivity/retention improve? On the other hand, if it's absolutely necessary to obtain the best talent, will the growth be more prevalent 2029+ given lease falling off past COVID?
What happened with Future $FUTR?? The last time I was involved the model was working, the shares were following and the CEO was (strangely enough) sharing her wedding pics online. For some background: the Future model is basically that of acquiring (struggling) magazine brands, preferably with niche content and loyal subs, and digitise + professionalise them. Future would also look at acquiring (crappy) websites which could complement and/or improve a (magazine) offering, creating synergies. $FUTR owns a wide portfolio, covering many gaming, sports, leisure sectors etc. Clearly the growth momentum had to come down at some point, if not purely by the weight of earnings, which are now sizable (BB FY23 est. GBP 280m ebitda, up from GBP 18m in 2018). The interest rate environment, a general market slowdown in audience numbers and other factors such as banning of 3rd party cookies have definitely not helped. Nonetheless, the derating seems overdone at this point. Again, I have not followed the story over the past few years, but the current valuation seems to price in a VERY steep deceleration of the business. This is an asset light, very cash generative business. Excluding acquisitions (so basically assuming no growth), FCF conversion could should up to 80-90% - that’s >20% yield. Any thoughts? As Peter Lynch would say, one of the two has got to give… 👇
@YetAnotherValue @ToffCap @brad_farview Curious if $DSGR might invest in centralized 3D printing manufacturing capabilities in the future? Given the amount of SKUs & complexity of business, the uptime of these 3D printers will make them economically viable, and also become a moat in the future?
@bkclaims @SamerHakoura after digging through some case studies, seems like Cirata/WANdisco was selected mostly for "migration and live replication of data without system downtime", which seems like a one-time fee rather than a ARR? Is that a fair assessment?
@ShovelStocks Any thoughts on cost advantages and versatility between $silxy and $aspi?
@AboveAvgOdds Can you explain in a bit more detailed, broken-down language of why SSPs stand to benefit more than DSPs? Also, are there specific situations where DSPs would benefit more? Curious if you've looked into $PERI as a potential play?
@3primeInvest @BiomedicalRX Any thoughts on Cibus (after merging with Calyxt)? Seems like they have 1 year of runway while cash revenue is 2-3 years away. Also, how does Cibus's technology compare to Bioceres, who has already commercialized its HB4 wheat?
@whiteoutcapital Recently heard they are working to partner with 3D printing companies to bring SPS into 3D printing. Any possibility that they could license their SPS tech and collect royalties from 3D printer sales? Could open up huge untapped markets with improved business model?
@brendan_49 I'm curious if you think SOLA EDS can create more partnerships (outside of $PFE) between $TBIO and other Pharma/Synbio companies, where $TBIO would earn royalties instead of just selling machines/consumables? How can they achieve that transition to this more lucrative model?
@Livid_Sugar @drug_smolecules @RockRat2 @Livid_Sugar Curious if you think SOLA EDS can create more partnership-like structures between $TBIO and other Pharma/Synbio companies, where $TBIO would earn royalties instead of just selling machines/consumables? How can they achieve that transition to a more lucrative model?
@Torgysr @TintinCapital Hi Torgy, clearly you've been following $BOXL closely, any thoughts on hardware as a % of revenue rising? Any chance they can monetize their app suite in the future, or is that not possible in the edtech space?
@CulperResearch Thx for your concerns on the mgmt quality and company, do you have any thoughts on the transformation of the company since the post and if it looks attractive at current valuations?
@dengusa The savings have huge implications to global telco in the future (Rakuten Symphony), and with EM market relying more on FWA vs fiber, all while exploring ORAN, the thesis seems more solid than ever…if you can stomach a derating (perfectly normal when moonshot “disappoints”)
@dengusa Rakuten continues to execute well in Fintech and e-com, using excess cash to invest in a new business venture with significant TAM globally. Mobile was slightly worse than expected in the short term, but their opex and capex savings seems to be legit (3rd party verified)
@dengusa Curious if you would still consider this a mistake if Rakuten 10x in the next 5 years? If not perhaps you’re calling it in too early? 50% drawdowns are not unusual.
@nanalyzetweets Any thoughts on Lanzatech? Lots of globally recognized brands using materials produced from their platform. Also curious if you’ve looked into juggernauts like novozyme and DSM, seem to co-invest or buy molecules from Synbio firms
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