Halo CME @halocme
Solar physicist (alum UTkyAst). I believe solar polar magnetic field must be measured properly before predictions of space weather and solar cycle make sense. Palo Alto, California Joined October 2013-
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Most Flares in AR 13638 have short-duration X-ray light curves. They often have no associated CME. When a CME is launched, they tend to be minor, lacking a smooth frontal loop ahead of a flux rope. But they may be related to enhanced 3He flux, starting on April 19 (ACE/ULEIS).
Most Flares in AR 13638 have short-duration X-ray light curves. They often have no associated CME. When a CME is launched, they tend to be minor, lacking a smooth frontal loop ahead of a flux rope. But they may be related to enhanced 3He flux, starting on April 19 (ACE/ULEIS).
My Twitter (X) activity has been low these days. This is because I have failed to find solar eruptions that may affect Earth in a major way. Here is a movie of LASCO coronagraph images over the past 2 days. We do not see fast and wide CMEs associated with changes in X-rays. 🥱
G3 (Kp=7-) storm! This was due to enhanced southward magnetic field in the not-so-slow solar wind. I defer to @TamithaSkov, @chrisoutofspace and other experts of in situ data to determine the origin of this storm. I am not convinced that the 15 April ~06 UT CME was the culprit.
Nothing surprising. The SWPC plot simply shows >10 MeV protons have not surfaced above the instrument background (~0.2 pfu). The SOHO/ERNE background is much lower, revealing smaller proton flux. For ACE, you need to look at SIS for >10 MeV protons. EPAM covers lower energies.
Nothing surprising. The SWPC plot simply shows >10 MeV protons have not surfaced above the instrument background (~0.2 pfu). The SOHO/ERNE background is much lower, revealing smaller proton flux. For ACE, you need to look at SIS for >10 MeV protons. EPAM covers lower energies.
Will two CMEs hit Earth about a day apart? This is an animation of WSA-Enlil model run at @NWSSWPC and a similar run is found at CCMC. I am not sure the second eruption, which looks weak to me, can have such pronounced effects.
A recent report (jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/s…) suggested that a region may be emerging around (280, 19) in Carrington coordinates, to be seen around the eclipse time. Instead, we see a new region around (310, 26) in the last frame of this animation, already on the visible side.
I will attend agu.org/tess2024/ in Dallas, TX, but probably will not be able to enjoy the total eclipse, according to the weather forecast I have spotted on Washington Post. I have experienced 6 total eclipses, and this may be the first complete failure.
The solar wind in near Earth space has been in gradually elevated conditions. The magnetic field is ~13 nT and speed ~430 km/s. Is this due solely to the coronal hole that passed the central meridian during March 27-28? Or an additional stealthy CME?
We may still be soaked in the flux rope from the big CME that was launched ~1 UT on 2024-03-23. After the shock/sheath region that caused the G4 (Kp=8) storm, the flux rope had magnetic field that was nearly completely northward, and the Kp index has not gone beyond 5.
UPDATE. The geomagnetic storm has weakened a little because the solar wind magnetic field turned northward. But the main body of the CME, aka, the flux rope, seems to have arrived as seen in low proton temperature. We should monitor how the magnetic field turns in the flux rope.
UPDATE. The geomagnetic storm has weakened a little because the solar wind magnetic field turned northward. But the main body of the CME, aka, the flux rope, seems to have arrived as seen in low proton temperature. We should monitor how the magnetic field turns in the flux rope. https://t.co/b5tuA6mxcQ
NOAA/SWPC (@NWSSWPC) has confirmed a G4 (Kp=8) storm. Exciting time for aurora chasers in Europe. We will monitor the solar wind conditions to see if the storm condition persists so that American fans may also enjoy the show. swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4…
BREAKING NEWS. The CME from the big eruption and halo CME that started early on March 23 has already come to us (shock arrival around 14:00 UT on March 24). It first appeared as a G2 (Kp=6+) storm. The present 3-hour interval could be G4- we will find it out within 10 minutes.
BREAKING NEWS. The CME from the big eruption and halo CME that started early on March 23 has already come to us (shock arrival around 14:00 UT on March 24). It first appeared as a G2 (Kp=6+) storm. The present 3-hour interval could be G4- we will find it out within 10 minutes. https://t.co/ssUi6uhwol
QFP stands for "quasi-periodic, fast-mode propagating". Thank you for sharing the reference. The final publication of the Shen et al. (2022) paper in Solar Physics is not free.
QFP stands for "quasi-periodic, fast-mode propagating". Thank you for sharing the reference. The final publication of the Shen et al. (2022) paper in Solar Physics is not free.
Amazing eruption associated with an X1.1 flare in AR 13614. It was accompanied by a global coronal wave with QFP wave trains. The GOES >10 MeV proton flux may exceed the S1 storm level. As expected, a halo CME followed, which may hit us in the morning (UT) of March 24.
The event referenced below indeed started off in AR 13614 as a narrow ejection like a jet, hitting a coronal structure like a flux rope to the north, which then erupted. The subsequent CME was a very narrow one, hardly qualified as a CME in my opinion.
The event referenced below indeed started off in AR 13614 as a narrow ejection like a jet, hitting a coronal structure like a flux rope to the north, which then erupted. The subsequent CME was a very narrow one, hardly qualified as a CME in my opinion. https://t.co/LPWSzlFokj
The polarity inversion line (PIL) plays a major role in solar eruptions. Some refer to it as the magnetic neutral line. Many related papers. In connection with eruptions, I may recommend ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGR...… (free access) and ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998SoPh..… (not free).
The polarity inversion line (PIL) plays a major role in solar eruptions. Some refer to it as the magnetic neutral line. Many related papers. In connection with eruptions, I may recommend ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGR...… (free access) and ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998SoPh..… (not free).
Nice filament eruption from yesterday (on 2024-03-21). The southern leg of the filament appeared to be on the polarity inversion line in the northern part of AR 13614. In this AIA 304Å/193Å composite movie, we can trace the CME front ahead of the filament during 17:45–18:15.
Update of the latest #solarstorm. Bz has turned southward again (see red points), leading to a G1 storm. The proton temperature (green) has contemporaneously gone below the expected values (pink), indicating the arrival of a flux rope, the main body of the CME. Watch the space.
Update of the latest #solarstorm. Bz has turned southward again (see red points), leading to a G1 storm. The proton temperature (green) has contemporaneously gone below the expected values (pink), indicating the arrival of a flux rope, the main body of the CME. Watch the space. https://t.co/7OH4ZNC5ak
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I just updated the solar activity layout of the timeline viewer for this, to raise the default y-axis max from 300 to 350, make it easier to compare daily values over longer periods and to disable the view of the NOAA/NASA/ISES prediction for this cycle. spaceweather.knmi.nl/viewer/?layout…
If confirmed, we may just have seen the highest daily sunspot number in 20 years. helioforecast.space/solarcycle
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Wow, Kp7 geomagnetic storm!
G3 (Kp=7-) storm! This was due to enhanced southward magnetic field in the not-so-slow solar wind. I defer to @TamithaSkov, @chrisoutofspace and other experts of in situ data to determine the origin of this storm. I am not convinced that the 15 April ~06 UT CME was the culprit.
SHARP REDUCTION IN COSMIC RAYS: Astronauts on the ISS got a break from their daily dose of cosmic rays on March 24th when radiation levels suddenly dropped more than 14%. What happened? A coronal mass ejection (CME) swept the radiation aside... Spaceweather.com
@Magnetodawn @NWSSWPC @SpaceWxRina @halocme @TamithaSkov This is just the different background: galactic cosmic-ray background is large in an integral measurement and small in a differential one. You can estimate the integral flux corresponding to the 10 MeV by multiplying the ERNE differential intensity by the channel width 13 MeV.
Our in-house radio dish observed the total solar eclipse too! Yaya! 🌞 🌝 🌞 📡
The return of old sunspots AR3614 and AR3615 is increasing solar activity. An impulsive M5.4 flare occurred from behind the SE limb, followed by a strong eruptive event behind the NE limb.
Wow. There is an absolute HUGE sunspot region on the far side of the Sun currently. Reminds me of the size of spots during solar cycle 23. 👀
@halocme There was a CME that was due to arrive yesterday or today....
Eclipse trip number 12 is now underway! Flying to Mexico City via Heathrow today. Next week I’ll make my way to Mazatlan on the Pacific coast for the big event. Been looking forward to this one for a looong time. Will also be posting on Instagram. 🤠🌮🇲🇽 #Eclipse2024 #TSE2024
First weather predictions coming in for eclipse day, here’s Dallas. (Nat’l map in thread.) @NatSolarObs @halocme @erikapal @SHINEConStudnt @xudong_sun @SolarPapers @NASASolarSystem @astronamir
Another feature on my eclipse tracking page is ensemble forecast dashboards for select cities in the path of totality, with ensemble probabilistic cloud cover & precipitation forecasts. Here's the latest plot for Dallas, TX:
@halocme Ask, and you shall receive... rdcu.be/dCmTR Shen, Y., Zhou, X., Duan, Y. et al. Coronal Quasi-periodic Fast-mode Propagating Wave Trains. #SolarPhysics 297, 20 (2022) doi.org/10.1007/s11207…
@halocme The Forbush decrease caused by this CME is pretty impressive.
The CME shock arrived March 24 14:10 UT, speed is 800 km/s. It is also seen at STEREO-A. There is southward field in the sheath that will intensify the ongoing geomagnetic storm, lets see how much.
We’ve had a few G4 events this cycle, but this one will likely be taking the #1 spot! Also, this means I gotta go buy my red yarn for my blanket now! ❤️
The expected #solarstorm has arrived earlier than predicted. At 800 km/sec it is the fastest moving storm I've seen since Solar Cycle 23. The initial impact hit hard enough to bring us up to G4-levels. However, the field has flipped northward so #aurora may dim momentarily. Stay…
Now this is a proper CME arrival! This may be one of the fastest onsetting geomagnetic storms in the history of our reliable solar wind dataset. Hemispheric power rose sharply from 18 GW to 141 GW in just 70 minutes (!!). A G3 storm is already in progress.
The 23 March CME arrived at around 24/1411 UTC. Severe (G4) geomagnetic storming has been observed and is expected to continue through the remainder of the 24 March-UTC day and into the first half of 25 March.
The CME predicted by @NWSSWPC and @ASWOGeoSphere arrived at @ESASolarOrbiter around 13:30 today. A flux rope is now passing over the spacecraft with a strong Southward field. Orbiter is 9 deg off the Sun-Earth line so this could be close to what arrives here.
The CME predicted by @ASWOGeoSphere and @NWSSWPC has now arrived at @ESASolarOrbiter, implying a fast event and a strong shock. Orbiter has now entered the flux rope but the field is not yet strongly Southward.
The CME-driven shock and the sheath region between the shock and the CME are also accelerating particles to high energies as observed by the Energetic Particle Detector aboard @ESASolarOrbiter . At Earth, the event was already close to reaching S3 radiation storm level.
The CME predicted by @ASWOGeoSphere and @NWSSWPC has now arrived at @ESASolarOrbiter, implying a fast event and a strong shock. Orbiter has now entered the flux rope but the field is not yet strongly Southward.
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