giacomo masato @giacomomasato
Meteorologist. Former research scientist @UniRdg_Met. Bologna, Italy Joined October 2010-
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We can quantify the relationship between the 100 hPa vortex & surface response in GEFS through regression across ensemble members. Those with a weaker vortex at 100 hPa clearly develop a stronger -NAO pattern.
The onset of this SSW, after a very disturbed vortex season, is associated with enhanced wave activity (eddy heat flux) from the troposphere. This is consistent with Scandinavian Blocking & an east Asian/west Pacific trough, which constructively interfere with wave-1.
Every member of the latest extended-range GEFS predicts a major SSW/easterly winds at 10 hPa 60°N in early March. Probability of Greenland High regime dominating March much increased in latest run, consistent with much weaker 100 hPa vortex (key mediator for downward impacts).
Every member of the latest extended-range GEFS predicts a major SSW/easterly winds at 10 hPa 60°N in early March. Probability of Greenland High regime dominating March much increased in latest run, consistent with much weaker 100 hPa vortex (key mediator for downward impacts). https://t.co/bQunDMQJGq
First map is what happened in that crucial time frame. A much flatter flow into continental Europe which led to a much weaker response in the stratosphere. Second map is what is predicted in 10-15 days. No wonder models now see again a significant SSW by the beginning of March.
First map is what happened in that crucial time frame. A much flatter flow into continental Europe which led to a much weaker response in the stratosphere. Second map is what is predicted in 10-15 days. No wonder models now see again a significant SSW by the beginning of March. https://t.co/BOv2zh9gGr
High-latitude blocking pulled a complete disappearing act in the medium and extended range forecast. Here's a visual of the last 10 runs of the ECMWF Weeklies, 7-day 500hPa height anomalies ending 2/25. The Greenland High regime now seems highly unlikely to develop at all.
What does this animation tell us? 1 - the verification forecast for day+4 to day+8 isn't going to be very good. 2 - much more renewable power available for the front week in NW EUR than everyone had assumed till present!
Changes are afoot.... 🧐👀
This is definitely a good trend for central and, partially ,southern Europe in terms of cold potential (much better than the previous round in mid-January). Let's see if this forecast holds...
Interesting side note. The German electricity price (front week) lost roughly 25% of its value from Friday (previous closing date), from 74 to 56 euros per MWh in the wake of this change...
Interesting side note. The German electricity price (front week) lost roughly 25% of its value from Friday (previous closing date), from 74 to 56 euros per MWh in the wake of this change... https://t.co/7fOOQKfSXt
That sounds like a nail in the coffin for January and the start of February with respect to any winter scenario in Europe. Big shift towards a +NAO pattern occured over the past 24 hours.
It is always good to remember that different shades of -NAO lead to very different scenarios across Europe. These phase-space plots from ECMWF nicely show how the forecast trend gradually supported a more west-based -NAO, leading to the current prediction for the front week.
500mb height anomalies & height anomaly analog dates from the Jan 8 00z Canadian Ensemble Mean for days 6-10, centered on Jan 16th. 9 of the 10 analog dates are from El Ninos and 4 of the 10 dates are from 3 of the all-time great Greenland Blocking winters (59-60, 68-69, 09-10)
Gonna bump this tweet again to show/remind everyone what the composite vertical - latitude temperature cross section evolution looks like during Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (SSWEs) Notice the cooling of the tropical upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) region…
Gonna bump this tweet again to show/remind everyone what the composite vertical - latitude temperature cross section evolution looks like during Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events (SSWEs) Notice the cooling of the tropical upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) region…
This really reminds me about the "initial value problem" and how an extended deterministic weather forecast works. Noise eventually overcomes the actual signal (this particular one is not that skillful though 😊).
This really reminds me about the "initial value problem" and how an extended deterministic weather forecast works. Noise eventually overcomes the actual signal (this particular one is not that skillful though 😊).
Lots of interest in the stratosphere in recent weeks, as the models ebb and flow with their predictions of vortex weakening. If we find the top historical analogs to last night's EC46 "polar cap height" forecast, it turns out 8 of 10 saw a SSW event in the next few weeks.
New #AIFS blog: with a new set of forecasts based on #MachineLearning available in the #ECMWF web charts, we discuss the interpretation of scores, the performance/realism dilemma for ML model developers, and how ensemble systems could help in this case ➡️ ecmwf.int/en/about/media…
Dr Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx
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Judah Cohen @judah47
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James Peacock @peacockreports
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8K Followers 668 Following Giornalista pubblicista. Analista del Sistema globale e le sue crisi (climatica, geopolitiche, sociopolitiche). Per contatti e proposte: [email protected]
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62K Followers 495 Following The best source for Android OS news. Senior contributor @AndroidCentral, @AndroidAuth, @AndroidPolice. Podcast @AndroidFaithful.
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1K Followers 18 Following @ECMWF Code for Earth is an online programme open to talents with an expertise in Weather, Climate, Atmosphere and other Earth Sciences. #Code4Earth
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6K Followers 2K Following Twitto di meteorologia, scienza di cui so di non sapere. Diffidate di chi pensa di aver capito tutto se si parla di clima. Dolomiti nel cuore
steph @climafluttuante
345 Followers 173 Following Se l'evoluzione del sistema climatico non desidera essere prevista come quella ottenuta tramite i modelli climatici, dovrebbe smetterla di comportarsi come tale
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119K Followers 722 Following https://t.co/vUFEJwQ4vQ inviato Milan podcast “La Soffiata”📲 I🎙 Corrispondente Milan per Radio Sportiva. Calciomercato anche su Telelombardia
Chris Kilpin Milanist.. @ChrisElMuss
7K Followers 143 Following Non sono un Insider👀 Non sono Famoso💰 Io sono Nessuno☻ Mi informo, controllo ed osservo solo per il mio amato Milan🔴⚫ Inventore del neologismo #Kalulare
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6K Followers 974 Following Giornalista, ufficio stampa, a volte su Forbes, Capital, Patrimoni e Money. Ho scritto su Corriere della Sera-Milano. Premio Angelo Agostini
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94K Followers 3K Following "Finiremo tutti colpevoli per non aver capito che i mali grandi e irrimediabili dipendono dall’indulgenza verso i mali ancora piccoli e rimediabili” (V. Foa)
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“Often times, the ones that are successful loved what they did so they could persevere when it got really tough.” ~ Steve Jobs
🔵 5% of the world's population 🔴 5% of the world's population
Non è una regola ferrea, piuttosto una media. Durante il successivo mese e mezzo/due mesi dopo il SFW, il comportamento delle principali modalità di circolazione atmosferica nell'emisfero settentrionale (AO e NAO) è il seguente. 👇
Today is Final Warming day, the final stratospheric warming of spring which marks the dissipation of the polar vortex. It happens every year, this is late because it occurs after April 12th due to radiative effects. The stratospheric polar vortex will return in autmn
Poi magari non lo fanno, non possono farlo, non riescono. Ma già dirlo, già dirle le cose, usare l'abilismo come slogan sposta il linguaggio democratico, sposta i confini di ciò che si può dire un metro più in là. E questo è pericoloso sempre, oltre a essere doloroso e offensivo.
A new AI approach for predicting ENSO... but a validation period of 2008-2022 implies a sample size of maybe 3 for "extreme ENSO events" 🧐 Link to paper: link.springer.com/article/10.100…
A new study demonstrates an innovative approach combining two artificial intelligence methods to predict a key ENSO indicator up to a year and a half in advance. The method proved capable of predicting extreme ENSO events at about 85 percent accuracy. climate.gov/news-features/…
C3S seasonal forecast models still going for a positive summer NAO, usually linked to warmer and drier conditions for the UK. climate.copernicus.eu/charts/package… x.com/mattpattclimat…
It's a long lead-time so lots of time for this to change but C3S models giving a hint of a positive NAO for this summer (warm and dry for the UK) Sea level pressure figure from climate.copernicus.eu/charts/package…
I found a guy who goes around the US asking 70 to 100-year-olds their: • Biggest Regrets • Biggest Lessons • Advice to their younger self Oddly enough, most of their answers are the same… Here are my top 8:
Much fresher air engulfs Europe next week parts of Central Europe which has seen 30C will see highs near 10C. It is spring….
Anomalie della pioggia registrata dalla rete stazioni Meteonetwork per il mese di marzo. Le regioni settentrionali hanno visto moltissima pioggia che è stata frutto del passaggio di molte perturbazioni particolarmente attive su questo settore d'Italia. Al sud condizioni siccitose
L'abbiamo vista oggi davanti a #SanSiro con il suo ampli e la sua chitarra cantare per #Theo, ora questo video bellissimo su @_OlivierGiroud_ . Trovo la sua doppia passione travolgente, quanto bello sarebbe 👀 cantare in un pre partita prima che termini il campionato? @acmilan 😉
📢Diffusion models meet ensemble data assimilation: arxiv.org/abs/2404.00844 Excited to share our latest study on using #generative #AI methods for #data #assimilation — a collaborative effort with colleagues and students from @FloridaState , @ORNL and @NOAA!
Il cambiamento climatico causato dalle attività antropiche ha reso le #heatwaves➕frequenti,➕ intense e con una probabilità di accadimento nettamente ➕➕alta rispetto a decenni fa. ▶️ tinyurl.com/34tuuaj9. Questo recente lavoro si spinge oltre, dandoci qualche info in➕.👇
"Questi cambiamenti si sono amplificati dal 1997" sopratutto alle basse latitudini. "Indicano che ondate contigue di calore, più durature e lente, potranno causare impatti più devastanti per la salute umana e l'ambiente se le emissioni di gas serra continueranno ad aumentare..."
How different ARE the extreme events you find from purely meteorological inputs (demand/wind/solar) vs. running a full power system model simulation? Well our new paper will tell you :) iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Non facciamo gli angioletti: anche nelle democrazie occidentali si gioca sporco, si eccede con la violenza e i trattamenti disumani. E qualche volta, troppo spesso, che sia sulle strade americane o nelle caserme italiane - ci siamo capiti - qualcuno ci rimette anche la pelle. 1/6
ECMWF kindly provided U,V on pressure levels in the most recent AIFS update. With the data, I can indeed show that the A.I. trained model has beautiful jet streams!
I've been meaning to post the verification for our subjective EU/US winter forecasts. Europe worked out surprisingly well, although confidence was quite low. It was particularly gratifying to catch warm+wet in western Europe when there was a lot of cold hype.
@MafaldaraS Sono addolorata. Esprimo la mia vicinanza e il mio cordoglio. Spero non abbia sofferto.
Trends for United States
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