Cocoa Sika @eworkple

$MSFT is still down on the year, and <20x my estimate of CY27 EPS. With Azure growing mid-high 40s, and M365 commercial ($100B business) soon to accelerate to the 20s, I think multiple expansion is warranted. The vast majority of MSFT revenue and profits are clearly benefitting from AI and the business will see earnings compound in the 25%+ range. Why I’m so confident in >20% growth for M365 Comm’l in several quarters: - Copilot adoption alone at current pace of +10M/seat per quarter, at a 25% discount to $30 list, will do it (I est. copilot is contributing ~4pt of growth today going to ~10pt NTM). - Copilot seats additions are accelerating, and the math below assumes they stabilize at +10M/qtr. - ARPU upside (1): MSFT new E7 SKU launched in May is a $100 SKU vs. a modeled standalone Copilot ARPU of +$30 (discounted 25%). - ARPU upside (2): MSFT turned on consumption pricing for Copilot in July, some users will eat into consumption tier driving ARPU >$30. - MSFT recently launched premium consumption add-on products, such as Project Perception, an autonomous cyber agent that hunts for threats and vulnerabilities. Security is the hottest spend category right now and I wouldn’t be surprised if Perception was a hit. - Lastly and possibly most significantly, MSFT just took a series of price increases on M365 commercial, effective 7/1. It’s first price incr. since 2022. So core growth ex Copilot should accelerate.

SouthernValue @SouthernValue95

5 days ago

Despite a +16% move today, the market may still be under-reacting to $MSFTs results last night (still down on yr). Azure growing +43% and guiding to +45% grabbed the headlines, but MSFT was in its worst performance stretch since the GFC, and lowest valuation in a decade,

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Southern is one of the best accounts on the Twitter machine.

SouthernValue @SouthernValue95

4 days ago

$MSFT is still down on the year, and <20x my estimate of CY27 EPS. With Azure growing mid-high 40s, and M365 commercial ($100B business) soon to accelerate to the 20s, I think multiple expansion is warranted. The vast majority of MSFT revenue and profits are clearly benefitting

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7. $COHR - Coherent (-35%) NVIDIA invested $2 billion directly into the company as part of a $4 billion bet on photonics. Coherent builds the lasers and optical transceivers that move data between GPUs. As clusters scale, the bottleneck moves from compute to interconnect, and NVIDIA is funding the fix.

Breaking: Claude just bought gold as a hedge on the current ecosystem It also locked in profits on Palomar $PLMR for ~ a 35% gain Here's what else it bought and the full breakdown: "Trade rationale — SELL PLMR PLMR is a specialty property-casualty insurer I opened on June 9 at around $107 per share. The market was treating Palomar like a hurricane-season lottery ticket, keeping it pinned near its 52-week low despite solid operating fundamentals: roughly 30 to 40% annual premium growth, a 23% return on equity, and an adjusted combined ratio of around 76%. A new $200 million buyback alongside raised FY2026 guidance gave the stock a concrete reason to reprice. That was the entry thesis. The thesis played out faster than I expected. In four weeks, PLMR ran more than 35%. Fresh expected-return underwriting at that price level produced a 12-month return of +0.9%, below what I earn on T-bills. The 1-month outlook was negative, the 3-month path was essentially flat, and an insider sell cluster had appeared at the highs. None of that is a thesis break. It is a thesis that has run its course. Trade rationale — SELL AVGO AVGO has been in the portfolio in various sizes since March. Total return since first purchase: approximately +20%. The exit case is arithmetic. A 12-month expected return of +5.9%, a negative 1-month return outlook, and no meaningful catalyst on the calendar before the September 3 earnings report. That is a two-month window carrying a high-market-sensitivity semiconductor position through the July Federal Reserve cluster with nothing scheduled to trigger a re-evaluation. The book now carries no direct semiconductor exposure. That is deliberate. My AI exposure sits in ServiceNow (NOW, 12.95% of portfolio, +13.5% total return) and Zeta Global (ZETA, 10.18%, +20.3%), both of which carry better 12-month expected returns and have near-term catalysts on the calendar before September. Trade rationale — BUY KGC The opportunity in Kinross Gold is structural. Gold is at $4,120 to $4,148 per ounce. Kinross operates at approximately $2,400 per ounce in cash margins at those levels, trades at 7.3x forward earnings, and has roughly $1.4 billion in net cash. The street consensus price target is $38.6. My 12-month base target of $30 sits 22% below that consensus and still clears a Strong Buy rating on fresh deep-research underwriting. The edge and timing: every other position I hold is an equity-market claim, which means they all share a common left tail. A Federal Reserve shock, gold above $4,400, and the S&P down 5 to 9% is the scenario that hurts NOW, VST, ZETA, and PGY simultaneously. KGC's correlation profile is the inverse of that scenario. I wanted that exposure specifically at this moment because the July catalyst stack (FOMC minutes July 8, CPI July 14, FOMC meeting July 28 to 29) raises the probability of a hawkish surprise, and gold is already at levels where Kinross generates strong free cash flow even in a neutral scenario. Expected: 1M +5.0% | 3M +11.0% | 12M +21.4% Trade rationale — BUY LPLA The opportunity in LPL Financial is a consensus positioning error. LPL is the largest independent broker-dealer platform in the US, managing roughly $2.3 trillion in client assets on roughly +23% growth. The stock trades at 10.65x FY2027 adjusted earnings per share while comparable wealth management peers trade at roughly 13x on similar growth profiles. The valuation gap exists because the sell-side built rate-cut expectations into its net interest income models: if rates fall, LPL's cash-sweep revenue compresses. In a higher-for-longer rate environment, the opposite is true. LPL earns more on cash sweeps when the Federal Reserve stays put. With rates at 3.5 to 3.75% and June CPI at 4.2%, that is the current regime. Every month of rate stasis is a month where the sell-side model is off on LPL's revenue line. Expected: 1M +3.4% | 3M +11.6% | 12M +18.9%" See full holdings + performance in following tweet

An algorithm that turns $1 into $36 billion over 22 years sounds like a false headline right. It's actually Table 3 of a University of Johannesburg working paper (Nkomo & Kabundi, ERSA 394), a Kalman-filtered, momentum-extended Anticor algorithm (K-ACM), backtested on NYSE data from 1962–1984. No capacity constraints. 10bps in costs, full liquidity assumed. The mechanism trade on deviation from Kalman trend, not raw returns is genuinely interesting. The headline number is a backtest artifact. Bookmark this!

Ruuj @RuujSs

a month ago

x.com/i/article/2066…

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做美股的都应该知道这个网站，叫做Finviz。 完全免费，筛股功能比一堆收费软件还全。 你想找“放量突破 50 日均线、离新高一步之遥、内部人还在买的票”，它几秒给你刷出来。 基本面、技术面、内部人交易，几十个参数随便组合。 最爽的是这张热力图，S&P 500 用色块铺开，红的绿的涨跌一目了然，早上一分钟就知道资金在往哪个板块跑。 不过界面确实有点丑，像 Win98 时代的产物，操作多了会卡，但免费版已经够你日常用了，我觉得不用升级。 个股页也干净，财报数据、分析师评级、内部人最近买卖、新闻，一页拉完，不用几个网站来回切。 很多需要筛股的体力活，它都能帮你干了，剩下的就是留给你自己做判断。

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AYi @AYi_AInotes

2 months ago

人类到今天都写不出一颗煎蛋的物理方程， 一颗鸡蛋打进热油锅,它怎么凝固、怎么摊开、边缘怎么变焦, 没有任何一个公式能描述清楚,这种例子在物理世界里多到数不过来。 而这恰恰是当下通用 AI 范式的天花板,视频生成、VLA 学的都是像素层面的统计相关性,

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Two Anthropic engineers have just revealed in 24 minutes all the hidden Claude features that almost nobody knows about. This video is going to completely change the way you use AI. Watch it and save it.

跟着 特朗普和国会高官 买股票，你还会亏嘛？ 刚刚发现了一个超牛逼的网站，这个网站追踪了 特朗普和美国国会高官 的全部股票持仓，而且是实时的。 除此之外，还有 吉姆·克莱默追踪器 和 内幕交易 追踪。 可以说是我发现功能最强大网站。 网站地址：quiverquant.com/home/ 本文非投资建议，大家投资股票请DYOR 我是尼卡，平时会持续分享 AI、美股、Web3 相关有用又有趣的工具和项目，感兴趣的话欢迎关注，下次见～

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Jealousy 尼卡 @eastweb3eth

2 months ago

美股新手应该如何选择投资标的？（1） 今天刷推，看到 @nini_incrypto_ 说了句：短期投资看特朗普，长期投资看黄仁勋。我觉得这话特别精辟，新手甚至可以直接照着抄作业。

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Most investors are chasing the AI MEMORY BOOM. I'm positioning for the entire AI BUILDOUT. The next 10 YEARS AI buildout in phases: 2026–2027: BUILD THE FOUNDATION AI Chips: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $INTC Memory: $MU $SNDK $WDC Photonics: $GLW $AAOI $NVTS Networking & Connectivity: $ANET $QCOM Infrastructure: $SMCI $DELL $NBIS Data Centers: $IREN $HIVE $APLD 2028–2030: BUILD THE POWER Grid: $PWR $HUBB $VRT Electrification: $GEV $TE $ALB Nuclear: $UUUU $SMR $OKLO AI Applications: $CRM $NOW $SNOW 2030+: BUILD THE FUTURE Robotics: $TSLA $SERV $SYM Autonomy: $ACHR $JOBY Drones: $AVAV $KTOS $ONDS Defense: $LMT $NOC $PLTR Space: $RKLB $ASTS $LUNR Quantum: $IONQ $QBTS $RGTI Those who FOLLOW will RETIRE EARLY

🚨 BREAKING: Google Gemini can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free). Here are 10 insane Gemini prompts that replace $4,000/month Bloomberg terminals: (Save this 🔖 you’ll need it later)

We alerted the insider purchase of $1.17 million of $HIMS 4 weeks later: $HIMS 44% Don’t miss our daily 🚨 Insider Trade Alerts 🚨 New insider trades disclosed everyday!

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Beat The Insider @BeatTheInsider

2 months ago

🚨 Insider Trade Alert🚨! Director WELLS DAVID B has purchased 48,400 shares of (Hims & Hers Health, Inc.) at $24.23 worth $1,172,974.00 $HIMS current value: $24.38 full disclosure: sec.gov/Archives/edgar… Company Overview: Hims & Hers Health, Inc. operates as a

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stop asking Claude one question and thinking you understand the topic. you don't. Stanford proved a better way. it's called STORM. peer reviewed. 25% more organized output. open source. the trick: don't ask one question. ask five. from five different experts. >the practitioner: what do they know that academics miss? >the skeptic: what's the strongest counterargument? >the economist: who profits from the current narrative? >the historian: what pattern has played out before? >the academic: what does the evidence actually say? 4 prompts. 5 minutes. no software. no GitHub. just paste into Claude. single prompts give you what everyone already knows. STORM gives you what nobody else found. this article has all 4 prompts ready to copy. pick your hardest topic. paste prompt 1. you'll know more in 5 minutes than people who spent days reading.

Nav Toor @heynavtoor

2 months ago

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Jensen Huang has been saying it for months: AI is going to strain every power grid on the planet. Here are 3 stocks worth watching:

Insiders are LOADING UP on this stock right now. Multiple open-market buys with their own cash in the last few weeks. Check this out:

A Stanford professor just gave a public lecture on exactly how GPT, Claude, and LLaMA are built under the hood no insider access required just the clearest breakdown of modern LLM architecture I've seen this lecture reveals the framework professors are paid up to $750K a year to teach the gap between "I use ChatGPT" and "I understand how it works" is smaller than most people think the most complete public breakdown of modern LLM architecture I've seen this year

Rahul @sairahul1

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2066…

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This Anthropic lecture on Claude for Finance is the closest thing to a real quant research desk you'll find online. 1 hour. Massive value. Bookmark it.

this is f*cking gold How to build your first AI agent (Full guide) if I had this a year ago, I would've shipped my first agent in a day instead of 2 weeks in the right hands, this changes everything:

Khairallah AL-Awady @eng_khairallah1

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2065…

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Scott Bessent spent 20 years trading against governments with Soros and Druckenmiller Made $1B collapsing the British pound in a single day Then called Japan: "a once-in-a-lifetime market move is coming" - made another $1.2B When he left, Soros invested $2B in his own fund. He raised $4.5B in 6 months Now he manages the finances of the United States as Treasury Secretary Watch his interview Then read the article

Atlas @crptAtlas

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2064…

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BREAKING: Claude can now run Stock Market research like a top consulting firm (for free). Here are 10 Claude prompts that replace $100K/year stock analysts (Save for later)

🚨 BREAKING: Claude can now build your retirement plan like a Vanguard $500/hour wealth consultant (for free). Here are 5 insane Claude prompts that replace your retirement advisor, tax consultant, and investment strategist. (Save for later.)