Thank God!
This victory belongs to every common sense voice out there who had the courage to call out the BS with the @WNBA.
Girl dads and moms simply want a league we can support and a place where our daughters who play basketball can dream about competing one day.
That’s it.
It was a weird period in the market in June & July.
I kept reiterating a bullish outlook on the market...
But the stock market did nothing.
Instead, the market of stocks did a lot.
We had breadth expand.
Industrials new all-time highs.
Financials new all-time highs.
Value new all-time highs.
High dividend new ATHs.
It was great...
But all the froth got swept off the top.
I kept saying "this is a bullish reset".
My mistake was thinking that the indices would reverse higher imminently and that we'd see a resumption of strength in tech, growth, mega-caps, and software.
But it didn't come...
Until last week.
I bought a lot of stocks in June and July, notifying premium members of Cubic Analytics in real-time about what I bought and why.
Tech, software, mega-caps, semis, fintech, asset managers.
These were my first major purchases since early/mid-April 2026.
I got to my lowest cash allocation in probably one year.
About two weeks ago, I started to think I allocated too aggressively, but all the data that I was looking at told me that we'd see the market firm up and get upside continuation.
Yesterday, that continuation signal is now unquestionable.
The S&P 500 made new all-time highs.
Futures are up slightly pre-market.
By definition, whether we've achieved uptrend confirmation via the production of a higher highs and higher lows.
This latest higher high is giving me a tremendous amount of confidence that quality growth companies are poised for multiple expansion.
Now, I just get to sit back and relax.
I think the extension phase is going to be very profitable.
And I'll raise capital in that environment, take some chips off the table, and be prepared for the inevitable production of the next higher low.
Sure, a significant pullback could come out of left field.
But because we've established uptrend confirmation, I'd only view that pullback as yet another opportunity to allocate even more capital.
Someone recently asked me about a pending recession...
I get these questions every few months.
Personally, I have zero concern about this.
First of all, none of the data shows that I should worry about it.
We've heard about cracks in the labor market for 4+ years.
We've heard about the savings rate.
The weak consumer.
Geopolitical tensions.
The commercial real estate crisis.
The affordability crisis.
The persistent increase in prices.
Remember when they cried about student loan repayments?
Or DeepSeek?
Or the Japanese Yen?
Or the U.K. Gilt market?
I mean, seriously, get the fuck out of here.
Look at earnings.
Look at the uptrends.
Look at credit spreads.
Look at risk-on vs. risk-off ratios.
Why would I spend time worrying about an "imminent" recession when I can't even control that anyways?
Yes, another recession will inevitably come.
There's nothing I can do about that.
I've said it for 3+ years now... when the music is playing, I'm going to dance.
It's a bull market, amidst a resilient & dynamic macroeconomic backdrop that has been able to fend off every negative headline that has come up.
That's THE signal.
Despite so many potential negative catalysts, the market has been able to climb the wall of worry and the economic environment has been able to support the uptrend in the stock market.
Full stop.
End of story.
That's THE signal.
It's what I said in Q2'23 after the banking "crisis".
Price is the only thing that pays.
And it's the ultimate arbiter of truth.
So I'm going to keep paying attention, primarily, to price.
And I'll let the rest take care of itself.
That's how I've capitalized on this bull market and how I'll know when to shift into a defensive/bearish stance, when the price action warrants it.
Good luck.
Have fun.
Embrace nuance.
California does beat republican states in:
Homelessness
Fraud
Wasting a $100b of surplus
Losing a Trillion of wealth twice in 5 years
Negative net migration
Illegal immigration
Highest gas prices
Highest taxes
Wild fires
@GavinNewsom is crushing it.
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