Brandon Breon @bbreon

@kanyewest

@MayorShengThao Get lost. Loser.

@DionLimTV @tronnniel way to go @LondonBreed 👏

President Biden has been an extraordinary, history-making president — a leader who has fought hard for working people and delivered astonishing results for all Americans. He will go down in history as one of the most impactful and selfless presidents. Thank you, @JoeBiden.

Joe Biden @JoeBiden

2 years ago

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@Benioff Defund @LondonBreed in NOVEMBER THATS HOW we REFUND the police! @MarkFarrellSF for mayor

@MDLZ #BoycottMondelez for breaking child labor laws. Shame on you.

"This is one of the most impressive things I've seen humans do!" @PatMcAfeeShow is loving the atmosphere in Seattle 👏 #CollegeGameDay

@SanFranciscoPOA Found Out.

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions. The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains. Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production. The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating. Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds. The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’ Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024. The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now. I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’ I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now. The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world. And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today. It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation. But I could be wrong. AI might save us.

Bill Ackman @BillAckman

3 years ago

I have been surprised how low US long-term rates have remained in light of structural changes that are likely to lead to higher levels of long-term inflation including de-globalization, higher defense costs, the energy transition, growing entitlements, and the greater bargaining

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Don't miss #NationalCinemaDay at #AMCTheatres on Sunday, August 27! Enjoy $4 🎟️ and $5 small 🍿 +🥤all day long. amc.film/3QNM1hP

@profgalloway I see eggy boom! and Chloe

@LondonBreed

@sophiaamoruso “word”

@Jason “word”

@LondonBreed youtu.be/f1FQDjnZZ2E

@LondonBreed But they don’t feel safe. The fact is under your supervision San Francisco is most dangerous city in America. Do not come here, tourists. @LondonBreed step down. You’re not getting the job done.

@LondonBreed it sure does! The best thing you can do to save San Francisco is resign. Bc you suck at your job. You’re inept. Step aside.

sometimes i think trump may be the only person on earth who loves big strong guys more than me

The @federalreserve should pause on Wednesday. We have had a number of major shocks to the system. Three US bank closures in a week wiping out equity and bond holders. The demise of Credit Suisse and the zeroing of its junior bondholders. Notably, bondholders bearing losses is a new phenomenon as they were protected in the GFC. @firstrepublic depositors that haven’t left already will not be comforted by today’s stock price performance. This banking crisis remains unresolved and higher rates won’t help. We don’t yet know where the losses are for investors in these institutions and what the contagion effects may be. Deposits have become unstable. What regional bank is going to commit meaningful capital to new construction or business loans in this context? The effect of the above is a meaningful tightening of financial conditions that has not yet been visible in light of the rapidly unfolding events of the last two weeks. Inflation is still a problem and the Fed needs to continue to show resolve. Powell can do this by pausing and making very clear that this is a temporary pause so that the impact of recent events can be assessed. He can make clear that his intent is to resume raising rates at the next meeting unless the banking crisis remains unresolved, and has on its own sufficiently slowed the economy. I continue to believe that the best course of action is a temporary @FDICgov deposit guarantee until an updated insurance regime is introduced, for if bank number five is closed, the market’s attention will move to banks six, seven and eight. Unfortunately, the data on every banks assets, liabilities and deposits are publicly available and the stock market has been a perfect indicator of who comes next. This is not an environment into which the @federalreserve should be raising rates and adding additional pressure on the system as financial stability is the Fed’s first responsibility.

@LondonBreed @GavinNewsom Yea because you can’t do your job right, your boss has to step in. You’re inept. Step down.