Vermilion Research @VtrResearch
Thoughtful, action-oriented technical research geared to help professional investors generate alpha. Email us at [email protected] for subscription options vermilioncap.com Minneapolis, MN Joined March 2012-
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Downgrading Staples and Utilities to Underweight; Upgrading Services to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact. Charts Highlighted: $FSLR, $NXT, $ENLT, $ENPH, $SEDG, $TE, $CSIQ, $PRLB, $SSYS, $VELO, $DDD, $MTLS, $OUST, $AEVA, $XMTR, and $PDYN
$RSP $QQEW and Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil $USO (long since 4Q2025) and Gasoline $UGA (long since Feb). FUD surrounding oil, yields, and the DXY proving to be unwarranted, as discussed weekly since May 5th
Concerns Persist; $SPX Testing Resistance at 21-day EMA and Near 200-day MA; Bearish Outlook Intact. Actionable ideas within Staples $XLP and Materials $XLB $AA $RIO $CENX $KALU $DOW $HUN skr.ma/C9dJy
Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still concerned it will break. $GDX $AEM $WPM $AGI $IAG $RWEOY $TS $VIST $SHEL $TTE $BP $EQNR skr.ma/JHfxd
Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance following oversold bounce. $NQ 24,000 level is crucial resistance. $ADM $BG $SEB $WLK $VLO $PSX $LYB skr.ma/wJHEm
Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples. Crucial $ACWI support at $134-$135.70. $VIST $TTE $WDS $IMO $SU $CVE $CNQ $PBR $MEOH $FTS skr.ma/ww7TA
Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs. $LAUR $PRDO $UTI $STRA $VLO $PSX $MPC $DINO $MUSA $PBF $CVI skr.ma/HUa19
Significant Downside Air Pocket Risk; Downgrading Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Crucial supports/downside triggers: $245 on $IWM, the 200-day MA & 6480-6520 on $SPX, 24,000 on NDX (NQ). $GPRE $AA $EZPW $FCFS $HWM skr.ma/5HF6h
Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold. Breakout above SPX 7000 Still Seems Unlikely. Chop Continues. $NTR $CF $SQM $IPI $GPRE $ANDE $SMH $INTC skr.ma/hcYmz
Pullback Offering Buying Opportunities; Crucial Support at $141.50 on $ACWI Holding for Now; Discussed to trim exposure to Korea $EWY and Taiwan $EWT in Feb 26 Int'l Compass report, now adding back, especially in Taiwan $ERIC $FTS $ORANY skr.ma/1mo8k
Shifting to Neutral Near-Term as Chop Continues; Market Dynamics Deteriorating: HY Spreads, MOVE index, DXY, Commodities All Rising $DJP $USO $UGA. 6780-6824 Remains $SPX Support. $MCK $COR $CAH $WM $RSG $CLH $ACGL $RGA $RNR $MP $ALM $PPTA $UAMY skr.ma/Wh3zc
Can Strength Continue for Korea $EWY, Taiwan $EWT, and EM $EEM?; Remain Overweight But Be Prepared for Volatility. Bulk of new buy ideas continue to be within commodity Sectors and defensives. $TS $AEM $WPM $FNV $AGI $AG $SCCO $HBM $ALM $DNN skr.ma/u3ENt
Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback Coming?; Downgrading Financials $XLF and Discretionary $XLY $XRT to Underweight. Crucial support levels include 6780-6824 on $SPX and $255-$257 on $IWM skr.ma/tsfqX
Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM, Taiwan, Korea (since 6/11/25), Spain, Japan, and Canada $CCEP $KOF $BUD $ABEV $TTE $CNQ $IMO $SU $CVE $PBR skr.ma/41A96
Upgrading Staples $XLP to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Cautious $SPX $QQQ; Market Dynamics Deteriorating as Defensives Take the Lead $XLU $XLRE. MOVE index, HY spreads at multi-month highs. $COST $LAND $NEE $DUK $SRE $EIX $D $EXC $XEL $ETR skr.ma/2qpu1
Thurs pre-mkt report: Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Monitoring a few potential concerns, notably Staples at 6-month RS highs. $NGG $SBS $VOD skr.ma/fujxh
Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on $SPX, $610 on $QQQ, and $257 on $IWM. We expect a period of consolidation/pullback, but the aforementioned supports would need to break to confirm. $WAB $GATX $TRN $GBX $FRO $GLNG $STNG skr.ma/UEAOL
Thursday's premkt report: Emerging Markets Leading the Way, but $DXY undercut and rally at $96.40 a near-term headwind; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names $TTE $EC $SU $FTI $KOF; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy skr.ma/B25t2
Chop Continues; $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT $ARKX. MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting = key. Energy & Materials Leading $FTI $TDW $OII $SCCO $FCX $ERO $TMQ skr.ma/rHdfU
Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight, Downgrading Communications $XLC to market weight. $RIO $HWM $AA $DOW $DD $LYB $SCCO $NEM $AEM $B $FNV skr.ma/e668d
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