PnL Enthusiast @TurtleNeckCap

Brother they have the former director of the NSA on the board at OAI, all this will do is prevent normal people from having frontier AI and keep AGI development in the shadows. Nobody can truly hit the brakes because there will always be a concern that adversaries pursue AGI behind closed doors

Just so you don’t have to look it up I mostly mean this guy: Paul M. Nakasone — Retired four-star U.S. Army general; former director of the NSA and commander of U.S. Cyber Command. Cybersecurity/national-security specialist. Not saying he’s even doing anything nefarious, just that it’s pretty obvious the intelligence agencies are deep in OAI and probably all frontier models cos

Look into who was placed on the board during the whole OAI Altman firing debacle. They’re already completely in and I’m sure have full access to everything OAI develops and probably works on developing it for their use/achieving AGI behind the scenes as well. The national security apparatus forces all of the tech companies to give them any access they want. But I can see keeping wide releases one generation behind AI used to secure systems. I’m just terrified this rhetoric will mean only governments & corporations get access to remotely capable frontier models. Obv govts will always have the most capable models eventually, but still this seems like it’s pushing for more of a cyberpunk dystopia than slowing it down for safety’s sake.

What’s the plan to regulate it anyway? It’ll just keep it out of the hands of normal people and even if you can regulate the visible frontier we all know intelligence agencies around the world will be pushing as hard as possible behind the scenes to achieve AGI. Seems like regulating it just fucks over normal people and we might even have a higher chance of dying to AI if it’s just intelligence agencies working on it in the shadows

Oh and my take on the catalyst: previous virgin HFC allowance reduction saw lots of stocking up prior to the step down which drove up price and volumes. Think you’ll likely see that going into mid 2027 and 2028 again in anticipation. This step down is much larger so the combination of frontrunning the step down and the 2029 virgin allowance reduction should send prices significantly higher eventually.

$HDSN Refrigerant sales & reclamation. Massive tailwind coming from the 2029 AIM Act rules on using reclaimed refrigerants. Lots of insiders recently bought at ~$4.90, partnered with SOLS to reclaim their next gen refrigerants and licensed a new separation technology for reclamation that should improve margins. Growing sales & reclamation volumes by double digits but cycle is at a trough so margins are still low, imo this will likely inflect. Hartree Partners has built a 12% position in it, started out under an activist filing but switched to passive and has continued to buy above current price. They’ve acquired a company in a similar way before but ownership was less fragmented so after acquiring 13% they bought out a large shareholder go get a controlling stake. They're a proprietary commodities/energy trader and investor, likely have some insight into the upcoming regulations and refrigerant cycle

Imagine typing this shit out, good lord. Hopefully Anthropic continues down its current path to irrelevancy. I’d rather put all of the eggs into the sociopath Sam Altman basket than have to read this masturbatory bullshit for another 5 years. AI please rapture me, I won’t make it

Evan Hubinger @EvanHub

3 days ago

Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.

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Think I'm going to buy the @taobanker pitch on $NRG . Pretty highly levered but at the current price it's hard to see how this isn't significantly more valuable in a few years. Dogshit price action today compared to VST is my only (short-term) concern

@Biohazard3737 @midwit_capital Wouldn't PRME and WGS be the natural beneficiaries of this? Base editors benefit esp transition editing. I need to review the arbitration results/prime editing agreement PRME and BEAM have. EDIT also a sleeper beneficiary w/ focus on noncoding DNA. Maybe WVE? AMGN/REGN too but larger companies so won't move the needle as much if you just want torque to the theme.

Google DeepMind @GoogleDeepMind

4 days ago

We’re launching AlphaGenome Atlas: an AI-powered searchable database mapping the predicted impact of all 9 billion possible single-letter DNA changes. Here’s how it could help researchers better understand our biology 🧵

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@XPeaked @Investor_NICK_ This is the most terrifying sentence ever typed on the internet. Our generation is largely insufferable

Or that they’re so advanced and space is so vast that we don’t even know what to look for or don’t have the technology to do so. Or that the universe is (potentially) infinitely vast and intelligent life is quite rare. You can’t really come to any informative conclusion on this one with the data we have.

Sorry I meant UB and ZB calls rather than owning the futures directly. TLT/ZROZ obviously haven't been great to own recently but there's been times in the past where they've outperformed equities for significant periods of time. Paying income taxes on the yield is rough though unless it's a tax advantaged account. At present I kind of agree & think owning calls is the better way to get exposure. IV was quite low but I haven't checked how much it's gone up since my purchase.

Unfortunately I trade on Fidelity because I'm too lazy to swap and like their customer service, so had to buy TLT calls since it's the only long-end instrument available to me w/ enough liquidity in the chain. UB or ZB futures are better & more liquid, plus you can go further out on call duration if you want to. I bought reasonably close to the bottom and spreads have blown out a bit since my purchase. Think it's harder to get a good fill on long-dated TLT calls now than it was before the Bessent comments. I bought Dec '28s and ate -6% or so on the spread alone

@NickalobeUltra @wolfejosh Here's the exact strikes and weights I went with

@wolfejosh Generally would agree, but the bet is settled via GDP numbers. You'd need a <0% GDP print in both Q3 and Q4 barring a massive Q2 revision. Personally think the crowd is correct on this one, at least with regards to the odds on this specific Kalshi contract.

Prefacing this by saying I'm not much of a chart trader but often use them for entries, and the chart looks pretty damn good. Was looking at this one earlier today myself as a high torque semicap play. Only concern I have is how often I see it mentioned on Twitter, guess it's probably a crowded retail trade. Could see this flying if it breaks above the 21 EMA

Narrative frontrunning idea: 3D printing. Surely with the models seeing massive improvement in CAD there will eventually be a narrative that 3D printing will take off. A lot of these names are still pretty beaten up; I'll be going through them tonight since I don't know the space well enough to suggest any particular single name.

@memory_prism @A_Saints_Tale @Viper04191 Good lord this comment chain is hilarious. Can’t tell if you’re doing a bit but if not good luck with the grift