John Thomas @TheThomasGuide
Political Ad Man, Republican Strategist, and Entrepreneur. nestpointgroup.com Texas Joined February 2009-
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“Money is important in politics, but not everything.” — John Thomas on The John Phillips Show In a recent interview on The John Phillips Show, John Thomas discussed why Tom Steyer’s spending could not overcome a deeper mismatch with California voters. @TheThomasGuide @Johnnydontlike @KABCRadio omny.fm/shows/the-driv…
Good analysis. My bet would be on Raman to defeat Bass in the runoff.
A +20.7% performance means Nithya will make it official next week. Can Pratt still make it, sure but very very unlikely.
America's next economic powerhouse takes shape in Texas as companies abandon the Bay Area in California. A new report shows Texas attracted 230 corporate relocations between 2018 and 2025, with Dallas, Austin and Houston leading the charge. Meanwhile, California suffered the nation's steepest corporate losses, with more than 160 companies moving their headquarters out of the San Francisco Bay Area, citing taxes, labor regulations and soaring costs.
Thank you to everyone involved with our election night livestream including our fantastic hosts: @kurtbardella & @Erinmaguire And guests: @StuDoesAmerica @JamesCarville @KendallScudder @TheThomasGuide And @Politicon for hosting the livestream here: youtube.com/live/isCuXn0Ii…
Thank you to everyone who came out to our inaugural Kalshi Politics on Tour election night party at Terry Black’s BBQ in Dallas, TX Stay tuned for more election night parties this primary season
Did you miss @PartyLinesPod live from @KalshiPolitics in DFW yesterday? Rewatch it here, including our interviews with @JamesCarville, Predictable’s @StuDoesAmerica, GOP Strategist @TheThomasGuide, & TX Dem Chair @kendallschudder on @Politicon youtube.com/live/isCuXn0Ii…
💯 correct.
dont know anything about spencer pratt. but imo it's not a good idea for male politicians to wear black dress shirts, which were historically associated with seedy nightclub owners and criminals. does not inspire trust.
“The campaigns have determined they can’t move their own numbers, but perhaps they can disqualify the other.” — John Thomas in the Texas Tribune John Thomas on why the Cornyn–Paxton runoff has become a battle of attrition as much as persuasion. @TheThomasGuide @TexasTribune texastribune.org/2026/05/14/tex…
That is the point. Consolidate the gop around Pratt and block Raman from a runoff. This is a standard tactic these days.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen an attack ad that comes off as an endorsement like this one
To be precise, don't you mean he is sitting in 5th place according to this internal survey?
Wow, @MattMahanSJ tied for second place among Democrats. As more voters get to know Matt, they like him. He’s one of the only candidates with a positive net favorability rating and the ONLY candidate with a real proven track record of solving problems with common sense solutions.
"Our head count in Manhattan when I got to JPMorgan was 35,000 and now is 26,000. Our head count in Texas started at 11,000, now it's 33,000. That's what happens." Jamie Dimon on why companies are leaving New York: "Highest individual taxes, highest estate taxes, highest corporate taxes, anti-business sentiment." "When I grew up as a kid in New York City, there were 120 of the Fortune 500 headquarters there. In the 1970s, 60 of the 120 left, including Exxon, GE, IBM, Union Carbide. They're all going to Texas." The Hill & Valley Forum 2026 @HillValleyForum @jpmorgan @ChairmanG
“How to Hollow Out Your State’s Economy” via @WSJ wsj.com/opinion/how-to…
We are beginning to see a trend.
How to avoid the Washington State millionaire tax: 1. Leave Washington
This survey soft shoes (incorrectly) the entire concept of the wealth tax as it is being framed by the proponents and on the ballot. Asks voters about taxing "high income earners". That's not what this billionaire tax is. It is taxing billionaires and voters of California are inclined to stick it to them.
First in CA Playbook: A new pro-Swalwell IE is up with its first seven-figure TV buy. Its donors include the California Medical Association, Global Medical Response, California Professional Firefighters and California New Car Dealers Association More: politico.com/newsletters/ca…
This syncs up with why Newsom is doing whatever he can to appear to "fight" Trump.
🔵NEW FROM @BlueprintPolls: We tested Democratic Party vision statements from a range of electeds and pundits. Here's what worked, and what didnt: “Fight” language stands out. The top-two most-preferred messages, among voters overall as well as independents, both lead with
This syncs up with why Newsom is doing whatever he can to appear to "fight" Trump.
🔵NEW FROM @BlueprintPolls: We tested Democratic Party vision statements from a range of electeds and pundits. Here's what worked, and what didnt: “Fight” language stands out. The top-two most-preferred messages, among voters overall as well as independents, both lead with
The fundamental dynamics of the race haven't changed. He passed on it once based on those dynamics. The wise call would be to sit this one out.
Rick Caruso reconsiders return to LA mayor’s race after damning Bass report: ‘Loss of public trust’ nypost.com/2026/02/05/us-…
The problem with this analysis is that it likely doesnt model how an R vs D race will play out. In reality the math isnt there for a D statewide this cycle in Texas. Will Paxton need to define his opponent as an extreme liberal? Yes. But once a campaign plays out it is hard to see Paxton losing. Does Cornyn start in a more marketable position than Paxton? Yes. But both are viable to win. One R just wins more easily.
New NRSC internal shows Talarico beating Paxton in a head-to-head, Crockett coming within 1 Cornyn is +3 vs Talarico, +7 vs Crockett H/t @burgessev
The problem with this analysis is that it likely doesnt model how an R vs D race will play out. In reality the math isnt there for a D statewide this cycle in Texas. Will Paxton need to define his opponent as an extreme liberal? Yes. But once a campaign plays out it is hard to see Paxton losing. Does Cornyn start in a more marketable position than Paxton? Yes. But both are viable to win. One R just wins more easily.
New NRSC internal shows Talarico beating Paxton in a head-to-head, Crockett coming within 1 Cornyn is +3 vs Talarico, +7 vs Crockett H/t @burgessev
This vote is less about economics and more about values. California voters are comfortable taxing wealth. Capital, on the other hand, is highly mobile. Both realities can coexist. California voters are signaling something very clearly. They are far more concerned with cost of living and public services than with the financial well-being of billionaires or the warnings coming from political and economic elites.
Our firm's new statewide poll: the California Wealth Tax is currently favored to pass. Uninformed ballot test: Yes: 60% No: 23.6% Undecided: 16.1% n=907 | MOE ±3% @NestpointGRP
Exclusive | Stunning number of California voters back wealth tax but admit it will kill jobs: poll nypost.com/2026/02/01/us-…
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