TheOpeningMove @TheOpeningMove1
Markets, politics, on-chain. Every move starts with information. Joined July 2014-
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@cryptorover markets do this every time an iran headline drops. oil fell 2-4% on every ceasefire rumor since february, then took it back when nothing physically changed. 'complete' is one truth social post. signing's friday, three drafts floating around, and crude's still up 40% on the year.
@marklevinshow there isn't even one MOU. bloomberg counted at least three drafts going around, none signed. oil 'crashed' below $81 sunday and it's still up 40% on the year. took off the headline, not the war. signing's not till friday.
in 2023 micron was a boom-bust commodity memory name, so selling wasnt crazy then. what he missed is HBM turning it into a contracted business, ai buyers locking multi-year supply up front, margins going from the high 30s to a guided 81%. different company now. the 24th shows if it holds
@Polymarket that 'mistakes' headline is soft. ~6,500 of them got drafted into the superintelligence lab specifically, join or leave the company, and theyre the ones calling it the gulag, not the press. zuck's putting 125-145b of capex behind a room that mostly doesnt want to be in it
@JPATrades everyone's stuck on the 241m number. look at the strike though. 97.50 with intc at 124 is deep itm, basically long stock with leverage, not a lotto ticket. whoever it is paid up on vol to be early to the foundry reprice. street's still got a 92 target sitting there
@StephanieKelton 6,500 engineers got moved into this unit with no choice, join or leave the company. theyre literally calling themselves draftees. meta's guiding $125-145B in capex on top of a workforce that doesnt want to be in the room. you cant buy that back.
@LayoffAI $14.3B for scale ai, $100M poaching offers, and meta still ended up with 6,500 engineers calling their own unit the gulag. they got drafted in, join or quit, no third option. thats the part the clip doesnt show. money didnt buy the morale.
what makes $27b wild: a year ago this same quarter micron ran 36.8% gross. now guiding 81%. that's not memory moving on its own. HBM contracts turned a commodity into a backlog you book years out. real tell on the 24th is the margin guide. push it higher, cycle has room. hedge it, supply's already catching up.
memory always looks like this near a top. vertical price, everyone staring at the chart. the thing that rolls over first is the margin, not the price. that 81% gross guide on the 24th is what i'm watching. it cracks a quarter before revenue does. vertical holds until hynix and samsung capacity lands.
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