Economist Intelligence: EIU @TheEIU
Economic and geopolitical insight guiding the world’s organisations. Intelligence that moves you forward: https://t.co/xlEV1GWxjF eiu.com/n/ London, New York, Hong Kong Joined April 2009-
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The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could lead to abrupt foreign policy shifts, straining alliances. Explore the likelihood and repercussions of this risk scenario in EIU’s latest report: econgrp.co/wK
The potential US presidential victory by Donald Trump presents one of the biggest risks to global trade. Watch EIU’s latest webinar to find out why: econgrp.co/wH
Understand the complexities of achieving a lasting agreement between Israel and Palestine for Gaza in EIU’s free report: econgrp.co/wD
EIU’s operational risk service quantifies risks to business profitability, empowering you to prepare for change. Learn about the critical geopolitical and economic scenarios that could reshape operating environments in our latest report: econgrp.co/wB
EIU’s Monthly Insights newsletter features our latest analysis on macroeconomic and geopolitical trends. Subscribe here: econgrp.co/wx
International Monetary Fund’s recent report states: “The clear advantage of EIU is that it covers the large majority of developing economies, going back to the 1950s.” Learn more about our solutions and latest insights here: econgrp.co/wt
High interest rates, subdued Western demand and economic fragility in China present downside risks to the global trade outlook. Find out how these are affecting investment decisions by watching EIU’s latest webinar: econgrp.co/wn
EIU's latest report provides expert insights and critical trends within the Middle East, empowering you to make informed business decisions. Read a free summary here: econgrp.co/wj
Global trade growth is expected to modestly rebound in 2024, but the path to recovery will not be straightforward. In EIU’s latest webinar, our regional experts explored critical trends and threats facing the trade landscape. Watch the recording here: econgrp.co/wf
IMF’s recent report spoke highly of EIU’s coverage due to our high frequency of publication and availability over an extended period. Learn more about our solutions and latest insights here: econgrp.co/wc
Registration is closing soon for tomorrow's Global trade outlook webinar. Join our regional experts to explore critical trends and threats facing the trade landscape and how to navigate them. Register here: econgrp.co/w9
Geopolitical volatility is increasing and further changes in the global distribution of power will lead to a more competitive, fragmented world. Discover the most critical risks to business operations in EIU’s latest report: econgrp.co/w4
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the first Asian company to benefit from the United States’ CHIPS Act, securing US$6.bn in funding to build new facilities in the country. Read more: econgrp.co/w0
Which Asian exporters will most benefit from Western scrutiny over Chinese subsidies? Find out in EIU’s Global trade outlook webinar: econgrp.co/vW
Climate ambitions are driving a new wave of protectionism in Europe's trade landscape. Find out how this will affect the global exports market in EIU’s upcoming webinar: econgrp.co/vT
After receiving US$6.6bn in funding from the United States, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company said it would add a third facility in the US, introduce its latest 2nm chips and increase funding for its factories in the country to US$65bn. Read more: econgrp.co/vQ
Why do near-shoring flows place Latin America in the crosshairs of US trade policy? Find out in EIU’s Global trade outlook webinar: econgrp.co/vO
The Maduro regime’s interference in the electoral process will put Venezuela’s relations with other left-wing governments at risk, potentially exacerbating the country’s isolation on the global stage. Read more: econgrp.co/vJ
Inflation in the euro zone is gradually converging towards the 2% target of the European Central Bank on the back of declining energy prices and slowing food price growth. Learn more: econgrp.co/vG
The US$50bn CHIPS Act set out to bring advanced chip production to the US at a time of increasing geopolitical risks. Learn more about the US Department of Commerce’s recent investments here: econgrp.co/vC
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Annie @anniepannelay
66 Followers 118 Following represents @essec @essecalumni in the UK #healthsystems, research and consulting, https://t.co/ZG6DXH942N and looking at Eastern Europe🇸🇩 - Satellite data show violence has surged in Sudan • Throughout south and in capital (Khartoum), number of fires detected from space is abnormally high • Satellite images confirm fires in Darfur, site of the 21st century’s first genocide, stem from violence (@TheEconomist)
🇷🇺 - Ripple effects of Russia coup attempt could be massive in Africa 🇨🇫🇸🇩🇱🇾🇲🇱🇲🇿 - Wagner has big econ/political presence in Africa, esp. in CAR, Sudan, Libya, Mali, Mozambique • Wagner helps Russia access gold mines, wage disinformation campaigns and build official ties
🌍👶 - Fertility rates are dropping, and this will lead to reshuffling of global economic powers • In 2010 98 states had fertility rates <2.1 (replacement rate); in 2021 number had grown to 124 • Africa is exception, with huge population growth (and thus economic potential)
Africa faces a mounting debt crisis, with crunch time likely next year • Rising interest rates are having a huge impact on debt servicing in African countries 🇿🇲🇬🇭 - In Zambia and Ghana, external debt servicing absorbs 30-40% of government revenues
🇨🇳🇪🇺 - European companies are far more reliant on China than American firms are 🇩🇪 Exposure of German firms to China amounts to ~10% of Germany's GDP (highest share in Europe) 🇺🇸 Exposure of US firms to China is more than half lower: America has much less to lose from decoupling
🇺🇦 - Ukraine’s soaring exports to EU are testing neighbour's solidarity • Eastern European countries are imposing bans on Ukrainian grains following influx of shipments • Russia's blockade of Ukraine's ports has led to pile up of grains in eastern Europe, pushing down prices
🇧🇫🇲🇱 - Jihadists are spreading chaos and misery in the Sahel region • Burkina Faso is among most affected countries, with at least 3,000 civiliant deaths so far this year • Burkina Faso's government controls only about 40% of the country's territory
🇪🇺🇨🇳 - What next for EU-China economic ties? • Trade remains robust, with imports from China increasing sharply in recent years • Flows of Chinese investment to EU are decreasing sharply, however, reflecting political tensions
Which economies will grow the fastest by 2050? 🇰🇪 Kenya 🇮🇳 India 🇻🇳 Vietnam 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 🇵🇭 Philippines 🇮🇩 Indonesia 🇦🇴 Angola 🇿🇦 South Africa 🇳🇬 Nigeria 🇮🇱 Israel 🇪🇬 Egypt 🇨🇺 Cuba 🇯🇴 Jordan 🇧🇭 Bahrain 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 🇦🇪 UAE 🇲🇦 Morocco 🇵🇰 Pakistan 🇵🇪 Peru 🇲🇾 Malaysia
🇷🇺 - Many developing countries rely on Russian wheat, metals, fertilisers and sunflower oil • Given sanctions, Moscow will reorient trade towards Global South, deepening its dependence on Russia • Moscow will not hesitate to weaponise interdependence to advance its interests
The world’s peak population may be smaller than previously expected • New evidence suggests that Africa’s birth rates are falling fast • Lower birth rate could boost continent’s economic development in coming decades
🇪🇺 - Headline inflation is dropping in euro zone, but core inflation (excl. food/energy) keeps rising • We @TheEIU expect euro zone inflation of 5.9% in 2023 before abating to 2.5% in 2024 • Rising core inflation will convince ECB to keep hiking to avoid wage-price spiral
🇺🇸🇨🇳 - How US-China decoupling looks in practice • In tech field, China's semiconductor imports are dropping as country indigenises technology • In financial field, investments involving US private-equity/VC companies in China are at record-lows
Retirement has become much longer across the rich world 🇫🇷 In France, people can expect to live ~25 years after they retire - the longest among OECD countries • Highlights fact that population ageing will be huge challenge for developed economies going forward
🇯🇵🇮🇳 - Fear of China is pushing India and Japan closer together, but their trade ties remain weak • In 2022 China accounted for 24% of Japan’s imports and 22% of its exports • By contrast, in same year India represented just 0.8% of Japan’s imports and 1.7% of its exports
🇷🇺 - Sanctions on Russia are working [updated with Dec. '22-Jan. '23 data] • Oil & gas extraction recorded big annual drop in January; shows impact of sanctions on oil exports • Russian GDP will not recover to pre-war ('21) level until 2027; highlights depth of economic crisis
High food prices continue to have negative effect on African countries • In October IMF approved "food shock window", to provide emergency loans to help with food shortages • Highlights growing African presence of IMF - at time when Chinese BRI-led investments are dropping
🇨🇳🗺️ - World depends on China for rare earths and critical minerals (like lithium or copper) • China has most of the world's reserves and processing capacity for these elements • Rare earths/critical minerals necessary to build EVs and semiconductors, giving China huge leverage
🇨🇴 - Colombia's economy is not in great shape • Central bank was slower than others to hike, resulting in high inflation and overheated economy • Budget and current-account deficits are huge and country is exposed to shifts in market sentiment
🇨🇳 - China's economic recovery is ultra fast • Lifting of zero-covid policy will help to cushion war-induced shock to global growth this year • China's Omicron wave peaked earlier than planned; economic recovery will therefore start earlier
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