Rutger Wintjens @RHMW2001

@holland_tom @TheRestHistory You forgot the anthem of anthems? La Marseillaise?

The Iranian navy, which has been destroyed eight times, has apparently closed the Strait of Hormuz again, because the United States, for the seventh time, won the war that wasn’t a war, so now the United States has to open the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the not-war began. The not-war began because Iran had uranium that was totally, completely, beautifully obliterated, so they can’t build the nuclear bomb they weren’t building, which is why the United States had to start the not-war it definitely didn’t start. Now the United States, which has nuclear weapons, is threatening to use nuclear weapons to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, because nuclear weapons are far too dangerous for countries with nuclear weapons to allow other countries to have. If the United States saw the United States doing what the United States does in other countries, the United States would invade the United States to liberate the United States from the tyranny of the United States.

Open Letter To the President of the Russian Federation From the President of Ukraine When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past. Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities.

New statement from Scott Pelley:   There has never been anything in America like 60 Minutes.   The Sunday tradition is the most successful program of any kind in history. For more than a decade, its innovative growth on every major online platform has extended its reach to countless millions around the world. This spring, at the end of our 58thseason, 60 Minutes grew rapidly with an unheard-of 9% jump in viewers on CBS.   “60” has been the number-one program in America for decades because our beloved audience finds integrity, quality, and humanity in our stories. When stewardship of the program passed to my colleagues and me, our responsibility was to expand energetically into a new age of media technology while preserving the values our audience expects. Now, the new owner of our network is casting this legend aside, apparently to curry a moment of favor with the Trump administration.   The waste is heartbreaking.   Last month, 60 Minutes lost its DNA when our entire senior leadership and two of our best on-air correspondents were cruelly fired without cause. Good people were silenced because they stood up for our audience. They stood for fairness against the forces of political bias; they stood for professionalism against chaos.   For my part, new management has instructed me to inject falsehoods and bias into a politically sensitive story. I’ve been told to include assertions that are unverified. To date, in every case, I have managed to ignore these instructions or refuse them. Recently, politicians have been invited to choose correspondents for interviews on the broadcast. Giving politicians control over 60 Minutes interviews is not how this is done. Finally, incompetence and unprofessionalism in the new management have wreaked havoc. In a case involving one of my stories, the entire program came within 19 minutes of not getting on the air at all.   At 60 Minutes, we have fought harder than anyone knows to save the program that became an American icon. We owed that to our millions of viewers. I am deeply moved by the thousands of wishes we have received to “keep up the good fight.” Most of the men and women of CBS News are still in that fight. But now the collapse of values at the top has become untenable. The leadership of 60 Minutes is no longer recognizable. The principles I hold dear are gone, and so I must leave as well.   I depart after 37 years at CBS with one emotion—a heart brimming with gratitude for the men and women of CBS News who encouraged and enriched my work, very often at the risk of their own lives. I pray for a day when those people and their ideals are honored again—a day when sanity, competence, and courage return.   Scott Pelley

Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new paper, @Brad_Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/

🚨🇪🇺 Mario Draghi: "Quando i cittadini chiedono "più Europa", non stanno semplicemente chiedendo più dell'Europa che già abbiamo. Né stanno chiedendo un progetto istituzionale astratto. Chiedono miglioramenti concreti nel modo in cui l'Europa li protegge e li rende più forti, in modi visibili e verificabili. La domanda è come trasformare questa richiesta di azione in forme decisionali capaci di realizzarla. La nostra esperienza attuale è che l'azione a livello di 27 Paesi spesso non riesce a produrre ciò che questo momento richiede. Il problema non è la mancanza di ambizione dei leader. È ciò che accade dopo che l'ambizione entra nel meccanismo decisionale. Gli accordi vengono filtrati attraverso comitati che diluiscono e rallentano fino a far sì che il risultato assomigli poco all'intenzione originaria. Il risultato è un'azione talmente insufficiente rispetto alla scala della sfida da diventare peggiore dell'inazione. E un'Ue che si assume responsabilità ma continua a produrre risultati insufficienti entra in un ciclo da cui non riesce a uscire: risultati deboli erodono la legittimità. E una legittimità debole rende ancora più difficile ottenere risultati. Dobbiamo spezzare questo ciclo. I Paesi che avvertono con maggiore acutezza il peso di questo momento - e comprendono che la finestra per agire non resterà aperta indefinitamente - devono essere liberi di andare avanti. Questo è ciò che ho definito 'federalismo pragmatico'".

I hope these messages sink in within the administration: A. Iran does not believe it lost this confrontation. On the contrary, from Tehran’s perspective, it proved resilience and strategic staying power. B. Iran has no intention of capitulating or accepting Washington’s demands, not now, and not in the foreseeable future. C. No matter how much Trump threatens “the end of civilization,” Iran is unlikely to back down. Even if military confrontation resumes, Tehran is not expected to reverse course under pressure alone. D. The only realistic paths to an agreement are either: compromising on key Iranian demands, or pursuing regime change in Iran. If the administration is unwilling to commit the enormous military, political, and economic resources required for regime change, then it likely lacks the leverage to force Tehran to accept maximalist terms. E. Neither sanctions, blockades, nor other “silver bullet” pressure tactics are likely to compel Iran to fundamentally alter its negotiating position. Claims otherwise are increasingly detached from reality. F. Iran and its regional proxies retain significant capacity to inflict economic and strategic pain on Gulf states, particularly in the energy and maritime domains. G. Any agreement with Iran is unlikely to include meaningful restrictions on its missile program or regional proxy network, and will almost certainly acknowledge, at least implicitly: Iran’s right to enrich uranium, and its Hormuz straits control. H. Most Gulf states are deeply concerned about escalation and understand that toppling the Iranian regime would be extraordinarily difficult and destabilizing. I. The United States did not achieve a decisive strategic victory. Despite operational successes by both the U.S. and Israel, the broader strategic balance in the region has not fundamentally changed. J. Iran is not Venezuela. It is a far larger, more institutionalized, ideologically committed, and strategically resilient state with deep regional networks and a much higher tolerance for prolonged confrontation. The bottom line us simple: There is an illusion in Washington that Iran emerged weakened, isolated, and ultimately cornered by military pressure, sanctions, and the threat of escalation. From Tehran’s perspective, the recent confrontation did not end in defeat. Quite the opposite. The Islamic Republic believes it demonstrated resilience, survivability, and an ability to absorb enormous pressure without surrendering politically. In the eyes of Iran’s leadership, simply enduring against the combined pressure of the United States and Israel reinforces the regime’s central narrative: that resistance works. The administration must recognize an uncomfortable reality: coercion has limits. If the United States truly seeks to compel Iran to abandon its core strategic doctrine, there are only two possible paths. The first is compromise, meaning accepting that any sustainable agreement will have to accommodate at least some Iranian red lines. The second is regime chang. No more no less.No middle ground. #Iran #IranWar‌

Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem

4 weeks ago

Unacceptable… so?

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For the hundred millionth time: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not about NATO. It is and has always been about Europe.

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57 years ago

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Zelensky is “allowing” Russia to hold a Victory Day parade on Red Square. Absolutely hilarious.

Ein "Deal" beim ersten Treffen zwischen USA und Iran war nicht erwartbar, im besten Fall ist der Einstieg in einen längeren, zähen Verhandlungsprozess gelungen. Deadlines, neue Ultimaten usw. funktionieren nicht, weil die USA die Druckmittel gegenüber dem Iran nicht haben.

If the United States truly thinks about withdrawing from NATO, then European security will be based solely on the European Union. But not in its current form. I think that the EU is in a situation where it needs more countries. The UK, Ukraine, Türkiye, and Norway. These are four strong countries, which are part of Europe. Together, the UK, Ukraine, and Türkiye have armies that are stronger than Russia's army. Without Ukraine and Türkiye, Europe can’t match Russia. With the four countries on board you can wrest control of the seas, have secure skies and the largest land forces. It’s not about offense, because when Russia makes the decision to have an army of 2.5 million people by 2030, Europe has to think about security and how to preserve its independence. The UK once was a member of the EU. There are concerns about agriculture when it comes to Türkiye. But you can manage all of this if you have a really great economy. But security comes first, economy second. Not vice versa. From an interview on The Rest Is Politics podcast (5/5).

@mattyglesias There is also something called purchasing power

While interfering in Hungary's election, Vance baselessly accuses other people of interfering in Hungary's election

Amy Mackinnon @ak_mack

2 months ago

Vice President JD Vance said he wants to help Orban “as much as I can” ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. The VP accused Brussels of trying to interfere in the vote, describing it as “one of the worst examples of foreign election interference.”

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The threat of NATO’s break-up, easing sanctions on Russia, a massive energy crisis in Europe, halting aid for Ukraine and blocking the loan for Kyiv by Orbán - it all looks like Putin’s dream plan.

With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, this feels like those weird couple of weeks before the global Covid lockdown. A surreal complacency, with a few people warning of what’s coming. If oil and fertilizer don’t start flowing to Asia soon, this will be a major catastrophe.

@atrupar Trump is going to pull US troops from Europe or let Ukraine fall (or both) and he has now found a (ridicolous) excuse to do so.

Never in my life have I believed Iran state media over our own government. Until now. That’s not being “unpatriotic,” it’s having a brain that functions.

The news that Orbán’s people inform Moscow about EU Council meetings in every detail shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. We’ve had our suspicions about that for a long time. That’s one reason why I take the floor only when strictly necessary and say just as much as necessary.

He took the greatest military force in world history, lost a war to a middle power in a week, begged the world to save him, and demanded that the media lie about this and everything else. I try, but at a simple human level I do not see how anyone can mistake this man’s almost supernatural weakness for strength. His weakness is something negative, gravitational, so deep that it can draw in a whole country. But only if we fail to see it. Only if we let it.

My informal take on European competitiveness: EU rules matter, but countries like Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and the Netherlands lead globally, while other EU MSs lag behind. National reforms matter the most. 🔗⬇️ andriuskubilius.lt/en/on-european…