QuantMario @QuantMario

#Bitcoin | Quant | Ex-Glassnode Joined September 2019

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QuantMario @QuantMario

6 months ago

@LynAldenContact Interesting. Do you have the first plot in a log scale, though?

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Excited to share some new research we’ve been working on at @glassnode! #Bitcoin spending isn’t random—it actually follows a fascinating and predictable pattern. As coins age, their likelihood of being spent drops in a smooth, measurable way. This power-law decay gives us new insights into holder behavior, from short-term holders to long-term HODLers—and even those ultra-long-term whose coins rarely, if ever, move. Check out the full research below 👇

glassnode @glassnode

2 years ago

The investors’ spending behaviour in the #Bitcoin ecosystem, is far from random - it follows a predictable power-law decay. Our latest research uncovers how the age of coins directly influences their likelihood of being spent. 🧵

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

Daniel, your journey is truly inspiring! It's amazing to see how your dedication and intuition have led to such impactful work in the Bitcoin and environmental space. I'm grateful for our meeting a few months back, and I admire your relentless pursuit of knowledge and positive change. Keep up the fantastic work!

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

The ETF Flippening. #Bitcoin #Blackrock #Grayscale

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@CedYoungelman x.com/quantmario/sta…

QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

Why not measure Bitcoin in Big Macs instead of USD? 🍔💡 The USD is like a ruler that stretches and shrinks over time 📏🔄, making it tough to grasp the actual purchasing power of #Bitcoin. With the "Bit Mac Index," we unlock a tasty new perspective on #Bitcoin 's real worth.

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@willywoo Everyone in Tradfi can engage in basis trades with ETFs and futures.

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@moneyordebt Comparing flops with hashes doesn't make any sense.

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

Apparently, the only thing more limited than the world’s resources is your capacity to understand the nuance of economic models, Fred. Dismissing potential flaws in Giovanni’s model without any constructive criticism isn’t just lazy—it’s intellectually dishonest. Your tweet is exactly what I’d expect from Giovanni’s #1 fan boy, not from someone committed to serious financial discourse. Next time, try to engage with the argument instead of flaunting your biases. Verify that!

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

TL;DR: 🚫 The #Bitcoin Power Law's future price predictions are flawed for two reasons (@Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger ): 1) They ignore USD's future value. 2) Adding a quadratic term fits the data just as well!📈 The #Bitcoin Power Law's attempt at predicting future BTC prices is like measuring a tree's future height without knowing the future length of your ruler. 🌳➡️📏Even worse: it's trying to predict to variables at the same time. A better approach? Use BTC/MAC, anchoring #Bitcoin's value to the purchasing power of a Big Mac, à la the Big Mac Index by The Economist. 🍔 (see my pinned tweet for details.) This adjustment allows for predictions in terms of tangible purchasing power. The model’s steep prediction: 77 years post-Genesis block, a single satoshi should buy you a Big Mac 🔄🔮 Most importantly, a limited-growth polynomial fits the data just as well as a power law (linear fit).🚨 Adding a higher-order polynomial, like a quadratic term, actually improves the fit but significantly alters the timeline for achieving Big Mac sat parity—pushing it out to 200 years. 📊 Remember, the real world's resources aren't infinite; #Bitcoin's purchasing power can't be either. 🌍💡 (Don't trust; verify: I’ve used @glassnode 's full history of daily price data up to today. See my pinned post for a link to the Big Mac index data.) 🔍✅

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@joshprf @Giovann35084111 You’re a genius. Good luck!

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@jjcmoreno @Giovann35084111 @cryptoquant_com @jjcmoreno is right. I’m a Physicist and I confirm that Kepler’s law is not a time series!

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@jjcmoreno @cryptoquant_com Thanks for your analysis! I came to to the same conclusion that the model is flawed, but from an economic POV x.com/quantmario/sta…

QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@Prithvir12 @CryptoHayes Big Macs contain energy, too. x.com/quantmario/sta…

QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

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QuantMario @QuantMario

2 years ago

@BritishHodl The power law model will be invalidated because it must break to the bottom after inflation adjustment. Without that adjustment, it’s relying on the USD to go to zero. x.com/quantmario/sta…