Purely Bitcoin @PurelyBitcoin

This cartoon is the easiest way to understand Bitcoin $BTC

CalPERS told him to stop trading. Bitcoin was the exception. @ColeMacro had only traded a handful of times, but the restriction pushed him to move his personal account into Bitcoin in early 2017. "So I put all my personal net worth into Bitcoin in early 2017, which was the luck part of it." $BTC $ASST $SATA

Saylor just said it plainly. Major US banks could create $100 billion of Bitcoin backed credit within 12 months. That is ten years of Bitcoin supply absorbed in a single year. Bitcoin price triples. Industry goes to $10 trillion. The banks are not moving yet. They are waiting for their signal from the Treasury. When that signal comes nothing will be the same. @saylor $MSTR $BTC

Strive more than quadrupled its Bitcoin through a bear market. @ColeMacro on Strive $ASST: • Over 26,000 BTC held. • About $700M in potential warrant proceeds. • A possible 40,000–60,000 BTC by year end. The warrants have a $27 strike and expire in about 3 weeks. The extra capital depends on investors exercising them. $BTC $SATA

The entire global credit market is $300 trillion. 1% of that is $3 trillion. If digital credit captures just 1% of the credit market in five years it would triple the AUM of Bitcoin. Tripling the AUM of Bitcoin means Bitcoin at $210,000 to $230,000. That is not a bold prediction. That is not a moonshot. That is 1% of a market that already exists. @phongle $MSTR $STRC $BTC

Cash reserves and buybacks mattered more than a higher dividend. @phongle says raising STRC’s rate from 11% to 12% did not drive its price. He points instead to the cash behind the dividend, buybacks, and Bitcoin’s effect on sentiment and asset coverage. $STRC $BTC

Strategy $MSTR CEO @phongle calls $SATA’s daily dividend an “incredible innovation.” He credits @ColeMacro and the Strive $ASST team with building a $BTC treasury company “the way it should be done.” He also sees plenty of room for more builders. Not every new idea has to come from Strategy.

One Bitcoin buys 16.6% more gold than it did 3 months ago. Gold did not sit still either. It got 1.6% more expensive in dollars over the same 3 months, and Bitcoin still bought considerably more of it. Across the last 63 trading sessions, about 91% of Bitcoin's 3 month gain sits in what it gained against gold. Ounces are a tougher measuring stick than dollars. Bitcoin gained on that one too. $BTC @AdamBLiv

Strategy is watching STRC claw its way back toward par. @PunterJeff just confirmed the plan hasn't changed. They are not done buying back STRC. They are not done accumulating Bitcoin. Not at $99. Not at par. Not once the liquidity ramps back up. The buyback continues. The Bitcoin buying train is coming back. The ecosystem gets stronger either way. @PunterJeff $MSTR $STRC $BTC

Treasury buyers are getting shortchanged. Matt cited a 10 year yield above 5%. Without Fed and Treasury intervention, he'd expect roughly 10%. He prefers digital credit like $SATA, while stressing it isn't directly comparable. "You still pay for your groceries and your gas with cash." - @ColeMacro

Strategy is the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world. Phong Le just confirmed they intend to keep it that way. They are long term accumulators. The buying never stops. Not at $80,000. Not at $200,000. Not at $1 million. The largest holder in the world today. The largest holder in the world forever. @phongle $MSTR $BTC

The 4 year cycle crowd just got an apology. Adam says he can't find a single on chain indicator arguing that Bitcoin hasn't already bottomed. MVRV, which measures price against what the average holder paid, has fully reverted off bottom levels, and long-term holder supply and profit read the same way. Short term holders are sitting at an average buy price around $71,170. On his read the profitability reset already happened. $BTC @AdamBLiv

8 out of 8 matching setups in Bitcoin's history were positive a year later. @AdamBLiv mapped today onto the 8 closest historical snapshots and took the median forward return across them: • 3 months: 18.6%, about 90K Bitcoin • 6 months: 41% • 9 months: 90%, knocking on the door of 150K • 12 months: 121% The top match is July 2023, Bitcoin at 30K on the way out of the crypto winter. He's not projecting a 100% chance. $BTC

Matt Cole expects Bitcoin $BTC to outpace Strive $ASST's funding costs. - Bitcoin annual growth scenarios into 2030: 30% low / 50% base / 70% high. - Funding-cost examples: 12%, 13% or 15%. - Dividend reserves outside Bitcoin: about 18 months. "And as long as that thesis of where it goes over the course of the next several years plays out, we will likely outperform Bitcoin." - @ColeMacro

Back in 1999 Amazon was controversial. Too volatile. Too speculative. Too early. Today nobody argues about owning Amazon. Everybody just owns it. Ric Edelman just said Bitcoin will have the exact same trajectory. The people arguing about Bitcoin today are the people who argued about Amazon in 1999. Same pattern. Same outcome. Completely different asset. $BTC

Congress may be stalled. American regulators don’t have to be.
 The U.S. can, and should, write its own bank-capital rules for Bitcoin. @JonathanMacey and I in @rc_markets: “A Declaration of Independence From Basel III”

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Matt Cole thinks suppressing long term rates could send Bitcoin higher. If the Fed or Treasury forces long term rates down, he expects a weaker dollar to favor scarce assets. "I think $BTC WILL reclaim its role as fastest horse versus gold." @ColeMacro

Strategy CEO Phong Le has a 1.75% 30 year mortgage. He could pay it down early. Instead he put $250,000 into STRC at 12% yield. His investment pays him 10x what his mortgage costs him. The CEO of Strategy is not just selling you this product. He is personally living it. @phongle $MSTR $STRC $BTC