BitPlayer @ProjectedOdds
Posting projected odds for upcoming races on big days (e.g., Derby, Travers, Breeders Cup) based on DD betting in previous race. Joined January 2020-
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#ChurchillDowns 4/27/24 Race 9 Roxelana # Odds 1 16.92 2 7.46 3 5.73 4 5.45 5 3.77 6 2.48 7 36.41 8 5.24 9 SCR 10 18.20
#Keeneland 4/26/24 Race 8 Bewitch # Odds 1 4.53 2 SCR 3 8.95 4 4.33 5 3.22 6 SCR 7 SCR 8 1.17 9 36.67
#OaklawnRacing 4/13/24 Race 11 Apple Blossom # Odds 1 51.3 2 6.3 3 4.3 4 0.8 5 20.8 6 23.7 7 8.0 8 15.9 9 10.9
#Keeneland 4/13/24 Race 10 Lexington # Odds 1 13.61 2 2.38 3 25.71 4 11.86 5 7.12 6 84.84 7 SCR 8 2.05 9 5.01 10 11.00
#Keeneland 4/13/24 Race 9 Jenny Wiley # Odds 1 24.84 2 10.37 3 10.35 4 126.84 5 2.23 6 3.45 7 3.92 8 24.32 9 6.22 10 17.80
#OaklawnRacing 4/13/24 Race 8 Count Fleet # Odds 1 SCR 2 6.4 3 48.7 4 0.8 5 32.5 6 2.4 7 8.1 8 9.9
#Keeneland 4/12/24 Race 9 Maker’s Mark Mile # Odds 1 SCR 2 6.79 3 6.36 4 0.85 5 7.99 6 14.20 7 SCR 8 3.76
#Keeneland 4/12/24 Race 7 Limestone # Odds 1 SCR 2 54.31 3 SCR 4 4.53 5 10.41 6 11.17 7 36.51 8 14.54 9 2.42 10 SCR 11 SCR 12 SCR 13 SCR 14 1.27
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"Kentucky Derby: Some horses better suited for afternoon glory" @DRFHersh has the story. drf.com/news/kentucky-…
@SaratogaAngie @ProjectedOdds @thoreval @EmilyOptixEQ You can place wagers just like you’re at the track at many/most off shore books. You get track payouts up to 25/1 or 100/1 on exactas etc (each book varies) but that money is not co-mingled in the US pools
@TVG @ks65716 @ProjectedOdds @FDSportsbook Yes - it will be now no more than one, maybe two races a day on Fri-Sun only, each one with 8, maybe 9 starters that then scratch down to too few horses negating the MBS (despite a number of tracks having multiple races with 11-12 horses on those days).
@ProjectedOdds @cannonshell Though there are 3 stewards, only the NYSGC steward (Baeza, Jr.) can suspend anyone, even if the other 2 found something they thought worthy of DQ & suspension. That can get one into a “why bother, just go along to get along” mode.
@ProjectedOdds It's not impractical at all. In fact, the Colonial Downs line this summer was generated by a computer model (with human oversight). In my humble opinion, high-quality computer generated lines are the future of the business.
@ProjectedOdds @HorseToWatch Each year I assess how shippers perform when the horses race on different circuits. Way to complex to detail on Twitter, but kind of a spider web thing. If, for example, all horses that ship out of New Mexico statistically run 3 points slower, they'll all be lowered.
@ProjectedOdds @truxtonstables It’s 16%. keeneland.com/racing/wagerin…
@ProjectedOdds @DailyRacingForm @HorseToWatch Was told yesterday that Derma Sotogake is a yes and everyone else is tbd
@o_crunk @jeremybalan Good to see you back in the Twittersphere.
@ProjectedOdds I imagine it would make most riders better. When you see some jocks at so-called lesser tracks, it’s hard to watch some of them just wildly flailing away. And I’m not anti-whip crusader. I just think the arguments make a lot of sense.
Dusting off a few ancient bromides that have regained relevance in the age of Twitter :-) “Never get between a dog and a fire hydrant.” “Never wrestle with a pig in the mud.”
Based on the rules as they are applied day in and day out at NYRA, it is consistent and correct to disqualify Imprimis (Shekky Shebaz was cost a position.) HOWEVER, decisions like this make it all the more obvious that Category 1 rules would be superior to Category 2.
@Roadwarrior627 I’ll tell you. I am ALWAYS objective and I try to give insights into these horses in the mornings as to the way they train. But if I’m positive about his horses I’m nepotistic, I’m negative I’m cold watering. I’m not always going to be right about Toms horses which I think...
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