Logo
Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

Assistant Professor at @NYUStern researching links between finance and the macroeconomy. dlgreenwald.com New York, NY Joined October 2018
  • Tweets
    303
  • Followers
    4K
  • Following
    369
  • Likes
    590
ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

4 months ago

TL;DR: mortgages are like long term bonds, but with rates around 1.5pp to 2pp higher due to additional costs and risks, which continues to be right on the money today. Even though short term interest rates have fallen, long term interest rates have not, so neither have mortgage rates.

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

4 months ago

Last, why are mortgages so much more expensive than treasury bonds in the first place? The difference takes into account a) the costs of creating and collecting payments on the mortgage, b) the cost of insuring the mortgage against default, c) prepayment risk (the fact that borrowers tend to refinance when rates are low but keep their cheap loans when rates are high), and d) lender profits. Historically these have added up to spreads of 1.5pp to 2pp (see graph for historical gaps), so our current 1.8pp is right around average. 4/5

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

4 months ago

Sure, I can explain this. Let’s start with a recap of the facts: current mortgage rates are 6.09% (Freddie Mac average), compared to current 3mo treasury rates of 3.68%. This is indeed a large difference of around 2.4pp. Further, as the OP notes, the mortgage rate has not fallen much since 2024 even though 3mo treasury rates have fallen by almost 2pp (see graph). 1/5

barneyxbt Profile Picture

barney @barneyxbt

4 months ago

Explain to me like I'm 5 years old how rates are 3.5%, but mortgage rates are still at 7%.

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

7 months ago

Adam Solomon and I are seeking a highly skilled and motivated predoctoral research assistant to work with us at NYU Stern. This is a full-time position aimed at candidates interested in an economics or finance PhD. Faculty, please tell your students to apply! Link here: apply.interfolio.com/176733

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 retweeted
UrbanEconomics Profile Picture

Urban Economics Association @UrbanEconomics

10 months ago

Thanks to all who contributed to our successful three-day summer school for PhD students at @TuftsEconomics. Presentation slides from our six faculty presenters are now available on the UEA webpage: urbaneconomics.org/workshops/summ…

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

a year ago

@espenhenriksen So sad to see this -- a fantastic economist gone too soon. I remember this outing fondly.

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

2 years ago

9/ If anyone from NYC wants to head to PA on Tuesday, let me know and we can coordinate on the same bus (or even carpool). Let's do this!

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

2 years ago

8/ PS. If you can't canvass consider phone banking. It's surprisingly easy: you do it from home on the computer and they automate the dialing. You're just calling likely supporters, and are largely providing key info on where and how to vote, which really helps. Try it out!

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

2 years ago

My one and only election post.  For anyone who cares deeply about the outcome of this election, I urge you to not just vote but VOLUNTEER. It is easy to do, makes a real difference, and is surprisingly fun. If you have never done it before now is the PERFECT time to start. 🧵

ProfGreenwald Profile Picture

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 @ProfGreenwald

2 years ago

@LevyAntoine There is a 10% fee on profits :). But the sum has gone above 120 in some markets before and then yes, it's free money.

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 retweeted
nberpubs Profile Picture

NBER @nberpubs

2 years ago

Banks facing losses on their securities portfolios cut lending to firms, but mainly when those losses tighten their capital requirements, from @ProfGreenwald, John Krainer, and @pascalpaul nber.org/papers/w32449

Dan Greenwald 🇺🇦 retweeted
HannoLustig Profile Picture

Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig

3 years ago

Wealth inequality increases when r declines👇 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

sc_cath Profile Picture

Sylvain Catherine @sc_cath

3 years ago

By the way, while it is a widely held view that wealth inequality is high when r-g is large because of Piketty's book, this is not true among economists who understand finance or have just looked at the data. As the graph below shows, there is a perfect time correlation between

Trends for United States

#USMNT
Antonee Robinson
D-Day
Mormons
Normandy
Ben Brown
Georgia
#tvlspoilers
Dawgs
Ream
Olivia Miles
Press
Mississippi State
Karmelo
Kai Havertz
Savunma Hatti
Mormonism
Freese
#USAGER
Jehovah's Witnesses

You might like

David Rockefeller Distinguished Professor, University of Chicago and Director of the @MFRProgram https://t.co/j329KLJdBl
Lars Peter Hansen
@UncertainLars
15K Followers
University of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy. Research on finance and monetary policy.
Carolin Pflueger
@CarolinPflueger
4K Followers
International macroeconomist at Minneapolis Fed. Opinions are my own.
Cristina Arellano
@cristinarellano
6K Followers
Economist at @ChicagoBooth
Guido Lorenzoni
@guido_lorenzoni
9K Followers
I am a Professor of Economics ...that is less boring than it sounds! @johnshopkins @JHUArtsSciences professor and Chair, @PrincetonEcon PhD, @unibocconi laurea
Francesco Bianchi
@Francesco_Bia
6K Followers
Prof Economics @ University of Chicago Lead Editor @ JPE Macro Chair @ e61 Institute Book:
Greg Kaplan
@GregWKaplan
11K Followers
Economist at Minneapolis Fed
Javier Bianchi
@JavierBianchi7
5K Followers
Prof @cemfinews, AscProf @IIES_Sthlm, Fmr Editor @RevEconStudies, PhD @Penn, @MarshallAlums @UVA macro research @iza_bonn @cepr_org 🌈🇩🇪🇸🇪🇺🇸
Kurt MIT-shock-man
@SorryToBeKurt
8K Followers
Thomas Sargent Professor of Economics at the University of Minnesota and consultant at the @MinneapolisFed. Views are my own. RT ≠ E.
Mariacristina De Nard...
@M_De_Nardi
9K Followers
Finance Professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Stefan Nagel
@ProfStefanNagel
7K Followers
Professor at Columbia Business School. Mostly international finance and macro.
Jesse Schreger
@JSchreger
5K Followers
Professor of Economics at University of Tübingen
Ralph Lütticke
@RalphLuet
4K Followers
finance professor at Harvard Business School, ex-@Columbia_Biz, @ChicagoBooth, @NewYorkFed, @federalreserve economist, research in international finance
Wenxin Du
@WenxinDu
5K Followers
Professor of Economics, @ChicagoBooth
Joe Vavra
@JoeVavra
3K Followers
Fun Guy & Macro-Finance Economist. https://t.co/Dl8ed3KXxf
Mariano Max Croce
@MCroce_MacroFin
3K Followers