Pax Lusitanica @PaxLusitanica
OSINT enthusiast and armchair strategist. Reading the news, looking at maps. 🇩🇰 expatriate in 🇵🇹, married to a 🇹🇼, closely following events in 🇺🇦 Lisbon, Portugal Joined February 2022-
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Ukrainian Intelligence Consulting Molfar has done an amazing piece I recommend reading on rail traffic over the Kerch bridge and has concluded it is no longer being used by the Russian Military. In short the rail bridge has had virtually zero rail traffic. A single train was…
Sometimes the best military analysis regarding Ukraine comes from relatively smaller accounts. Have a look at the solid work by @AMK_Mapping_ whose geography-based approach can help us understand how the battlefield may evolve.
Sometimes the best military analysis regarding Ukraine comes from relatively smaller accounts. Have a look at the solid work by @AMK_Mapping_ whose geography-based approach can help us understand how the battlefield may evolve.
The value of OSINT is finding evidence-based fact. The scientific method transparently applied to journalistic questions. Recent errors by major newsrooms & sloppy posters risk diminishing the form. A timely list of bad practices by @bellingcat: bellingcat.com/resources/2024…
Yesterday, on the eve of the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution in Portugal, I watched the documentary '20 Days in Mariupol'. A grim reminder that some places in Europe are still fighting against dictatorship and all its evils. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_Days_i…
*Update: Kommuna* 🇷🇺BSF: SEVASTOPOL🇷🇺 0.5m📷 from 22 April 2024 doesn't appear to show any significant damage & she hasn't changed positions at the pier. However, the Ropucha and 1x Krivak have moved elsewhere with the Ivan Khurs now at the Frigate pier (was in the repair bay)
🇷🇺BSF: SEVASTOPOL🇷🇺 0.5m from 20 April 2024 (before the latest strike). Looks like 2 Krivaks, an Alexandrit Class, the Kommuna + several other vessels at the Frigate pier. Ivan Khurs hasn't moved from her spot in the repair bay. 2x grain thieves in Avlita
One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar. In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/
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12K Followers 737 Following 🇵🇱OSINT. Tracking Vehicles/Losses in Ukraine. Mostly posting Russian Deep Strikes on Air Defence and important Military TargetsKrasnodar Territory, Russia ❗ Boom 💥 Bavovna 🔥🔥🔥💨 Additional footage. According to russian media, tonight 6 drones tried to attack an oil depot near Anapa in the Krasnodar Territory. All were suppressed by the electronic warfare system, but some fell directly onto the…
Krasnodar Territory, Russia ❗ Boom 💥 Bavovna 🔥🔥🔥💨 Happy May 9th 🥳 Tonight drones attacked an oil depot in the Krasnodar region. According to residents of the village of Yurovka near Anapa, the attack on the nearest oil depot began at about two in the morning and is still…
A group of Russian soldiers from the 71st Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade reportedly accidentally set their own 9A39 Buk TEL on fire, destroying the SAM system, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
/1. Drone attack on Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region is reported. Presumably in Yurovka village. There are multiple oil depots in the area, which of them was targeted is unclear. 300 from the frontline.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had a telephone conversation with the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen. Zelenskyi emphasized that it is critically important for Ukraine that already approved aid packages from partners start arriving on the battlefield.…
@Schizointel I appreciate your critical thinking! In the article there should be a minimum about what time frames of our 24h day could be watched, also including percentage of cloud cover and night time. Please do not forget that Russian army does not want to be seen using the #Kerch #bridge.
@_walt_1 Oh yes, because the railroads only move base on the movements of satellites, not based off the movements of the military or civilian needs Also multiple different satellites from different companies that fly over at different times of the day.
@Schizointel Don't you think the Russians KNOW when a #satellite will fly over the #Kerch #bridge? That is e.g. ONCE a day, e.g. 10 a.m.! When will they show their activities? At 10 a.m.? When the sky is clear? At daytime? All this is so idiotic! Is nobody asking questions? #Crimea 🇺🇦 #OSINT
Russian troops continue to arrive in Dzhankoy ATESH agents record the arrival of new trains with replenishment on a daily basis. An interesting fact, at the station we also notice mass transportation of the wounded and 200x from the left bank of the occupied Kherson region.
1/ Russia has severely depleted one of their largest towed artillery storage bases. In updated images it is visible that they have removed about 60% of the stored guns and half of the remaining guns might be unusable. Data and IDs below.⬇️
Night Summary (29.04.2024 - 08:00 RO/UA time): Even though most of you have already had your morning coffee and probably missed this summary which is more of a prelude to the detailed analysis related to US aid, I hope you will still find the time to read it and I also hope you…
Aqui uma perspectiva que recomendo ler: Os argumentos mais comuns dos que são pró-🇷🇺 em 🇵🇹 parecem-me sempre saídos de um mundo imaginado, saído da cabeça de quem os profere. A realidade é outra: 🇺🇦 🇪🇺
Ter vivido na Ucrânia nos 3 meses que antecederam os dias + quentes da revolução Maidan, e ter feito desde então cerca de 20 viagens aquele País, ampliam a estupefação que sinto ao ler alguns argumentos pró-Kremlin. Pretendo enumerar e contestar aqui os mais comuns (1/7)
@PaxLusitanica @DivineShadow33 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA If I would be @CinC_AFU for today! I would check if I have 2 #ATACMS or other GPS-aided missile with an updated antenna to only use signals from ABOVE (and not below where the 🇷🇺"#Kerch #bridge GPS jammer" is). Then I would target the 2 rails with decoy and 2 ATACMS, for a test.
Improvised Russian 122mm rocket launcher on famous UAZ-452 Bukhanka.
@PaxLusitanica @DivineShadow33 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA Right. To rain "10" valuable #ATACMS onto the rail or road #bridge is not the way. "10" would be needed because of their high CEP. Only the newest updates reach 10m. And they would hit from above which is not effective. The naval drones work better, but only for the road. #Kerch
@PaxLusitanica @Maks_NAFO_FELLA They might be doing just that, and the constant talk about the bridge is just a smoke screen. Or they will blow it up anyway just as a middle finger to VVP. Morale is important in a war, too.
Cabo Verde é um país extraordinário que está do lado certo da história e que fez uma escolha clara em termos de alianças políticas.
I spoke with Cabo Verde's Prime Minister, @UlissesCorreiaa, and thanked him for his personal support of the Peace Formula and principled stance on Russian aggression. Cabo Verde was among the first African countries to confirm attendance at the Peace Summit. The Prime Minister…
I spoke with Cabo Verde's Prime Minister, @UlissesCorreiaa, and thanked him for his personal support of the Peace Formula and principled stance on Russian aggression. Cabo Verde was among the first African countries to confirm attendance at the Peace Summit. The Prime Minister…
@PaulNiland Sorry, dear Paul! There is correction, that have to be noticed. You have marked on the map the regions of the 🇷🇺 where missiles were launched this time from bombers and from the MiG-31K fighter. That is, from air carriers of weapons. Thus, these areas may be in a completely…
For instance in Melitopol, the largest city in Zaporizhzhia under Russian control, only 40% of the pre-war population remain and half of those consist of ethnic Russians offered work in the city. 14/
In any case, if this conscription happens, it violates Article 51 of the 1949 Geneva Convention IV ("Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War") 9/