Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 @PDphillyPhil
Retired Investment Pro. Battle Tested after 3 decades. Straight Talk on Macro, AI Infrastructure & Digital Assets. No Hype. No Fluff. Mindset is Everything. Heath, TX Joined February 2021-
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@thoomsfn @bitcoinbutcher1 Of course it is an 8-K. I’m Just saying it’s about that time this week.
@thoomsfn @bitcoinbutcher1 They are a lead diamond sponsor at a major industry conference this week. The perfect platform to announce. It’s just about that time!
@JosephFGI @JarronJackson4 This is a bigger issue effecting global capital flows If Bessent is successful artificially suppressing yields and we have negative real rates great? If rates go higher high beta, high debt growth stocks will underperform vs. Value and Commodities
@MarioNawfal Yes but the FED doesn’t want to buy so worse case they raise rates, There’s bad for BTC
Ideally rates settle down vs. the risk of global deleveraging (ie Japan/US) give the debt bubble we are in today. It impacts the macro , multiples, credit etc. If the 10yr was 3.5% IREN would be $100.00 If the 10yr goes to 5.5% IREN will be $20-$24. The macro is overwhelming highly indebted companies at the moment.
@SmallCapSnipa IREN reported 394,058,648 ordinary shares outstanding as of August 14, 2026. They need to update their report. Including the Converts I think it’s closer to $450mm shares. I think.
@neel_epochal It’s a little late for that after the RSUs right? It’s becoming clearer with tye debt and dilution overwelmimg the stock why mgt wants to get paid for time and attendance for performance.
Great ? I remember starting my career in 97, funny after going through 2000 and 2008 I looked at my 401K after 13yrs and there was a 0.0% gain. Talk about unlucky and a lost decade as a passive saver and investor simply from a 401K perspective. Broaden your investment universe to include EM, Commodities, BTC, Gold ++. Become less reliant on Tech/AI. Remain flexible to manage downside risk and large drawdowns.
Butcher: Show me how many of the top LCAP or midcap growth funds are buying IREN. I mean not really. Real PMs that know how to buy businesses and to evaluate mgt teams. Market makers don’t count. There are some glaring issues with this company and obvious corp governance issues. I would be shocked if IREN didn’t get pinched in the next downturn and will be a highly distressed company forced to impair the equity to survive. We have seen this show before. Dan and Will confirmed this for you moving their pay package from Performance based to Time based.
@Bobiliciousing @neel_epochal @moninvestor Agree. Wait until the short term contracts are up during a downturn. I don’t love the rev mismatch with long term debt. That’s how you get taken out in 2-3yrs.
@matthew_sigel Thanks Matt! Good stuff. Let’s hope for a friendly FED tomorrow especially for digital assets!
There’s 10-20 companies with similar risk and return profiles and prospects. Maybe more. Dont get sucked to far into this company. Stay open minded to underwriting IREN and ranking oppts. Maybe they pull through or maybe they are going to be a poorly run company the market abuses. Don’t set the bar so high. With their strategy, these guys need everything to go right.
I agree with you. This is not a winner take all CAT. I’ve always said that too. On paper that should converge. Your on the front lines investing capital and maybe you see them closer in parity but I think there is a trust element and Inst brand that nbis commands. I don’t think $IREN has done itself any favors with corp governance issues, strategy considerations (no Colo), and what appears to be a slower ramp. I think there are some tangible issues here and certainly the perception from retail investors. In the future, NBIS cloud diverge further. I’m having ptsd from global crossing and other parallels when I see what IREN is trying to do in the spot/shorter term market to improve pricing vs. duration matching their liabilities. Your thoughts on that aspect?
@matthew_sigel I think one could argue that’s a fair discount “all else equal” for many obvious reasons if I’m tracking you.
Nonetheless, IREN does not have a good reputation for setting or meeting guidence. The odds of $IREN ending the year with 4B in ARR that’s operational to start the new year are less then 20%. That will have to earn back the quality premium NBIS has earned with investors. Bigger picture, it is surprising they communicated 2027 capex without estimating ARR for proper framing.
How many of these start ups will be paying customers in 3-4yrs if we go through a major downturn? How many start ups will survive? Not exactly the definition of resilience when your duration of your revs are much shorter then the debt. Hopefully they will sign more IG clients going forward. Not great.
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