Michael Hirson @MichaelHirson
Head of China Research at 22V Research, formerly at Eurasia Group and US Treasury. Fan of spicy food and mild takes. Opinions my own. New York Joined May 2017-
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Roast it in a sheet pan and you'll make the homepage
Om bias?
On her trip to China, Yellen warned about overcapacity. Beijing says these concerns are over-hyped. Who's right? Probably both! We looked at capacity utilization, investment, and export prices. 1/
There is now a bit of pushback against concerns about Chinese overcapacity. That is in part because the notion of overcapacity is itself poorly defined (capacity v domestic demand, v global demand or v the demand needed for decarbonization) But there is a real issue imo 1/x
Good story. Milei has been more pragmatic than expected; China is a part of that but only a part. But there is a missing angle. Argentina's previous government drew on the PBOC swap for real, and Milei lacks the fx to unwind it ... bloomberg.com/news/features/…
China’s National People’s Congress is about to open with the government work report of Premier Li Qiang. The report was already approved by the latest Politburo meeting, and foreshadowed by December’s Central Economic Work Conference and several Xi Jinping Speeches.
That is a pity and a missed opportunity for policy communication. In the past, the Premier’s press conference were often very meaningful, and helped improve the understanding of China’s policies.
That is a pity and a missed opportunity for policy communication. In the past, the Premier’s press conference were often very meaningful, and helped improve the understanding of China’s policies.
It was an honour to testify at the @USCC_GOV last week on “China’s Economic Policy and its Role in Global Manufacturing” with @ChimitsF and @gordon_h_hanson. Here’s a quick summary of my testimony. 1/ uscc.gov/hearings/consu…
Excellent set of policy recommendations from Tao Wang (UBS) in the FT 1/ ft.com/content/a210f7…
Global issues do not necessarily have to be linked. What happens in Afghanistan need not be a signal to what will happen in Ukraine; what happens in Ukraine need not be a signal to Taiwan. But if other signals are not being sent, then these will be listened to. Were congress…
Global issues do not necessarily have to be linked. What happens in Afghanistan need not be a signal to what will happen in Ukraine; what happens in Ukraine need not be a signal to Taiwan. But if other signals are not being sent, then these will be listened to. Were congress…
China-centered globalization isn't about to end. Instead, Beijing is moving to expand its geoeconomic position by doubling down on manufacturing. This isn’t going to go well for global trade diversification. Max Zenglein @merics_eu delves into the empire. hinrichfoundation.com/research/wp/us…
Happy China Article IV day for all who celebrate
Great thread from Dario but I’d reframe just a bit differently. I noticed 4 main forecasting (different styles were guilty of these to varying extents at different times): - in 2020, fighting the last war assuming shock would be exceptionally long lived and slow to recover from
Great thread from Dario but I’d reframe just a bit differently. I noticed 4 main forecasting (different styles were guilty of these to varying extents at different times): - in 2020, fighting the last war assuming shock would be exceptionally long lived and slow to recover from
Most U.S. and Taiwanese experts polled in a new survey say China lacks the capabilities to effectively carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan but is well-positioned to execute a blockade. trib.al/jVD6Cfx
Lai's appeal to voters was that he would be Tsai 2.0 - he would not deviate from Tsai's foreign policy, Cross Strait / US relations, and doubled down on his support for the status quo. At the same time, he promised to make major improvements on social issue shortcomings.
At last it's happened: The US is now a bigger customer to South Korea than China is for the first time in two decades. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China outs 3 defense firm executives from top political body. May potential engender political instability near the top of Chinese leadership as well, possibly even at Politburo level. /1 scmp.com/news/china/pol…
The EU-China summit met low expectations. EU-China economic imbalances and dependencies will continue to loom large over the relationship. @MaevaDebarge and I discuss on @TheTerminal. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/S…
Maduro. Don’t go bananas. If you do, you’re tostones.
1/China has a new “trinity” of econ/finance committees under the Party’s aegis. Two are old and one is new, but they all have the word “central” in their titles and sound kinda the same. So what’s the difference and which one really matters? We unpack all this in this thread.
Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA @HAOHONG_CFA
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137 Followers 478 Following Program Leader for Infrastructure @WorldBank Power sector, utility performance, infrastructure. Views personalPeter Williams @peterdwilliams
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21K Followers 5K Following Director of the Lau China Institute and Professor of Chinese Studies, King's College, London. 伦敦国王学院 中国研究所主任 凯瑞.布朗教授Jamestown China Brief @ChinaBriefJT
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706 Followers 2K Following Energy and China analyst and lifelong student. Many years in China, a few in UK and Israel and now back in NorwayBill Hayton @bill_hayton
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7 Followers 207 FollowingFor @RStatecraft, I argue that under the impression of calm and complacency that comes from empty diplomatic exchanges, pressures are steadily building. Let’s not squander this rare moment when both the US and China have good reason to seek real progress. responsiblestatecraft.org/antony-blinken…
The prevailing notion that the Biden-Xi summit in California last November "stabilized" the US-China relationship was never well-grounded. Beijing and Washington have a lot of work to do if they want to insulate the relationship against the potential for another downward spiral.
For @RStatecraft, I argue that under the impression of calm and complacency that comes from empty diplomatic exchanges, pressures are steadily building. Let’s not squander this rare moment when both the US and China have good reason to seek real progress. responsiblestatecraft.org/antony-blinken…
Joerg Wuttke, the former president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, is leaving Beijing after about three decades to take up a role with an advisory firm in Washington bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics
There is an alternate version that sees state capacity as embodied by extremely competent faceless bureaucrats as the true motor of the world. This is known as The Gray Man Theory Of History.
Is there a good name for a mid version of the Great Man hypothesis of history? Like, that there *are* pivotal figures who make a difference, but by and large they’re actually pretty ordinary or below average
For anyone trying to understand clean energy in China, this podcast episode with @laurimyllyvirta is the single best discussion I’ve heard so far. Pretty much all the big issues covered in just an hour. (There’s also a transcript of the episode.)
Today on Volts: China! I sit down with longtime China expert @laurimyllyvirta to discuss the country's decarbonization efforts, its recent coal binge, & the growing political influence of the cleantech sector. This one is incredibly illuminating! volts.wtf/p/whats-going-…
He looks like he specializes in white collar crimes.
Eye-opening chart from the IMF in the latest Fiscal Monitor. Public debt in China on a much worse path than the United States.
Jack Zhang, assistant professor of political science, will receive the inaugural KU International Affairs Advisory Board International Teaching Award and lecture on his work in international education at 2:30 p.m. April 18 in the Kansas Union. news.ku.edu/news/article/j…
A lot of space given to the Xi-Ma mtg in People's Daily today - one objective for Beijing is to create a bit of political space for itself, by assuring domestic audiences that there are still actors in Taiwan they can work with & the leadership remains in control of the issue
Somehow stumbled into a bit of twitter that consists of hundred-follower accounts excommunicating each other for failing to acknowledge each other as pope
The good news in today's inflation data from China is that the hog cycle finally seems to be turning, so that source of deflation is fading. And yet prices are stuck near zero... Unfortunately, this thread from last year still seems relevant x.com/adamkwolfe/sta…
The deflation debate in China seems to be the inverse of the inflation debate in the US 2 years ago. One camp is looking at it from a micro perspective, arguing deflation will be transitory. While those looking at the macro picture argue for a stronger policy response. A 🧵1/
Seamless translation of thought experiment into lab experiment that, when run across cultures, reveals how WEIRD we are.
My favorite behavioral experiment covered in The WEIRDest People in the World: “You are riding in a car driven by a close friend. He hits a pedestrian. You know that he was going at least 35 mph in an area of the city where the maximum allowed speed is 20 mph. There are no…
Yeah I can just see it “不行,机器坏了”
Chinese hotels with three-star ratings or more have been told to accept payments with foreign bank cards bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @technology
China's excess capacity may be bad for profits and prices, but it's an advantage in strategic competition. China’s defense industrial capacity already exceeds the US’ in many areas and the gap is only growing, even as its economy slows down. nationalinterest.org/feature/china%…
Japanese companies are trusted to provide a safe alternative to PRC cranes and invest heavily in the critical battery sector in the US BUT can’t be trusted to invest in our steel industry? The policy math doesn’t add up.
There clearly is excess capacity in the analysis of excess capacity 😀 (h/t @MichaelHirson)
So a critical question here is how effective SOEs really are aligning broader stakeholder interests in a way that outweighs some of the benefits of more direct income distribution (from their profits) to households through equity ownership. It’s a complex question.
A look at the gender breakdown of the U.S. CEOs who met with Xi Jinping in Beijing last week.... @aaronMCN
China’s Red Carpet - @aaronMCN breaks down just who was at the big US business meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing thewirechina.com/2024/04/07/chi… @thewirechina
Some ?’s re: dialogue Yellen & He Lifeng agreed to: - Will USTR & Commerce be involved? - Does US have a timeline in mind for when key concerns need to be resolved or else…(presumably tariffs)? - Is there coordination with others also concerned about China overcapacity (EU)?
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to set in motion formal talks to address what many see as China’s growing industrial overcapacity. trib.al/ik1K0Iw