@gfodor Worth observing that, depending on how improvement scales with increased researcher ability, full RSI can be sigmoid as easily as it can be exponential.
The gains aren’t free: Jev can't generate text
Comparing Jev vs LLMs side-by-side makes the trade-off clear
Fun fact: replacing sequential computation with parallel is the same way Transformers leapfrogged RNNs
I went to an rationalist/EA AI doomer event last night with the goal of meeting someone who could calmly explain to me the argument for how they get to the conclusion that AI will kill everyone.
Because these are rationalists, I expected to find people who could lay out a serious extinction pathway, walk through the assumptions and intermediate steps, identify choke points where negative pathways could potentially be regulated, and entertain disagreement about where their assumptions might break down.
My experience was the exact opposite.
The people I spoke to seemed psychologically unable to entertain the possibility that their conclusion (that AI literally kills everyone, which was a point that many would not even budge on) might be wrong.
Their most extreme conclusion was treated as an axiom.
I had multiple people walk out of conversations with me when I questioned their inevitable extinction premise.
At one point during a panel, the moderator asked everyone in the audience who was still skeptical of AI doom to raise their hands. About half the room did. He then told all of the skeptics to leave the panel and go with one of the speakers, who would answer their questions separately. They filtered out all the skeptics, and continued the panel only with the subset who accepted their extreme position.
I genuinely felt like a heretic just for questioning whether superintelligent AI inevitably leads to the extinction of humanity, or entertaining the possibility that the future might actually turn out well.
That does not mean AI safety is fake. Obviously there are serious questions about rapidly advancing AI systems and what happens as they become much more capable. Those are exactly the conversations I went there hoping to have.
But what I encountered was an apocalyptic death cult. These people are not rational. They are deeply afraid, they reinforce that fear in one another, and they have become so emotionally committed to apocalypse that they refuse to be reasoned out of it.
It's comforting to imagine that someone like Soares might be as circumspect about calling for bloody war as he is about putting his physical safety on the line. But alas.
So, the Chinese have officially stated that they consider the calls for an AI pause to be a "power play" and will not be participating in any US-led agreements to slow down development.
Following AI-doomer logic, it is now absolutely imperative that we bomb the hell out of
EAs, like any weirdos, are tempting targets for a coordinated media frenzy. Very seductive to bash the nerds.
It’s not going to work politically, it won’t work on the American people, and it’s divorced from the reality of the technology. But it’s the low-impulse control option.
I and @nicochristie ran the fly connectome and found the group of neurons (hΔH, hΔA, hΔI and hΔG) that could allow the fly to navigate using fast synaptic weight updates, not neural activations. This is fast-weight continual learning in a fly, something current LLMs don't do!
For the first time, scientists have mapped the complete brain and central nervous system of an adult male fruit fly — a key model organism in science. 🪰
Working alongside HHMI Janelia Research Campus and the scientific community, @GoogleResearch scientists and researchers used
@gfodor The fact that none of the doomers employed at these firms (or at their auditors) do that suggests that they don't actually fear x-risk as much as they fear jail.
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