Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Hobbyist Mapmaker: Threads of Past Elections & State Trends/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs Shakespeareandhistory.com NY-4 Joined January 2022

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

22 minutes ago

Sen David Vitter (R-LA) was easily reelected in ‘10 even after revelations of soliciting prostitutes, but Dem Jon Bel Edwards successfully used the scandal against him in the ‘15 Gov race. An interesting example of a scandal that didn’t matter…until it did.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a hour ago

@EastEndJoe @CjMfdt They just say “you” and leave off the rest. 🤭

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a hour ago

In what was at least a mild surprise, Rep Randy Feenstra (Trump’s endorsement in hand) was defeated in the GOP Gov primary by businessman Zach Lahn. Interestingly, Feenstra won fewer counties in his own CD than he did in the eastern part of the state.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

5 hours ago

@TXFirst45 Agreed. There are a lot of parallels to be drawn between Trump and Platner. The question becomes if Platner can continue to deflect the stories in the same way “Teflon Don” has over the years. Either way, we’re in the gutter these days. lol

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

6 hours ago

@BruneElections If this were 2012, he would’ve been gone long ago. Unfortunately, many have become numb to all this stuff these days. Sad, but true…

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

7 hours ago

@Tectonicty34 @NYC_DEM99 Besides it being more competitive back then, the area was heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy, which messed with typical turnout.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

13 hours ago

@Kattergang It really does shock me how many people in the comments don’t realize you’re making a joke. 😹

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

24 hours ago

@Sloanstweets Yup, that scene took place at Trainland right here in fabulous Lynbrook, NY! 😎

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

Finally, Sand absolutely needs to run up a solid margin in IA-03. He was able to do this in ‘22 by cracking 60% in Polk (Des Moines) & winning suburban Dallas, allowing him receive 56% compared with Rep Cindy Axne’s 49%. One might say Dallas is a must win for Sand.

Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

Sand will also need to do well in IA-02, where he received 53% in his ‘22 Auditor race to Liz Mathis’s ~46% against Rep Ashley Hinson. With Hinson, a known overperformer, on the Senate ballot, Sand may not fare much better there this year.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

@Sinfulskin2 @IIKnowIDont @TUNKIN26 @DemDeanna @keeshalldaylong You got it Sin. 💙😺😎

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InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022

a day ago

OHIO POLL - Senate 🟦 Sherrod Brown: 53% 🟥 Jon Husted (inc): 45% —— Fav-Unfav • Brown: 53-44 (+9) • Husted: 41-50 (-9) Fox News Poll (A-) | 5/28-6/1 | RV foxnews.com/politics/fox-n…

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J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman

a day ago

CRYSTAL BALL: @kkondik and I formalize some ratings we announced after Iowa voted last night. The Gov race moves from Leans R to Toss-up while the Senate race moves from Likely R to Leans R. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ra…

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

In order to win statewide in IA, Rob Sand likely needs to do a bit better in IA-01, home to strongly Dem Johnson County. While he received 52% in his ‘22 Auditor race, compared to Christina Bohannan’s 46%, he’ll likely need to flip Scott County and hold his ground elsewhere.

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cinesthetic. @TheCinesthetic

a day ago

Happy 90th Birthday to Bruce Dern!

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

@mike_o55685 Agreed.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

2 days ago

While Rob Sand has virtually no chance at winning IA-04 this year, it’s interesting to see that he ran 10% above the Dem House nominee in the CD in 2022. That could be the difference in a tight race. What do we think the margin is in IA-04 this year?

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

@erickson_68 Oh yeah, for a 3-0 map, they have to get creative and stretch themselves way too thin. It’s similar (though also with substantial contrasts) to NV, where Dems 3-1 gerrymander could collapse at any time.

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Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf

a day ago

@conservative767 @kkondik Haven’t read his article yet, but it’s likely a placeholder rating since the strong incumbent (Hinson) isn’t running there, leaving the seat open. It may get moved back to likely once there’s a better idea of the candidates’ campaigns and overall environment.

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Kyle Kondik @kkondik

a day ago

Three additional changes this week, all in the House IA-2 Likely R to Leans R AL-2 Safe D to Likely R LA-6 Safe D to Safe R IA-2 change goes hand in hand with the other Iowa changes. AL/LA changes are because of redistricting, which might be over now for 2026