Keep Prep Prom @KeepPrepProm

Joined July 2012

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Keep Prep Prom @KeepPrepProm

3 weeks ago

@blondesnmoney What do you think drives compression of the Samsung pref discount that has blown out to nearly 40% compared to historically 10-15%

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@babyfolio Why do you think it could be a $20b company? I agree generally with the tailwinds, but haven't put pencil to paper on what you need to believe from unit economics, $/watt, penetration, TAM, DC growth, financials

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4 weeks ago

@Ren_aramb @DeepDive_KR any thoughts on how much of this increase is driven by increase in content / mix (e.g., more volume and more HBM) vs. pure price? Obviously the former is more sustainable. Also VR300 should have a more meaningful content ste-up

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2 months ago

@damnang2 Do you see any ways for a value oriented firm to play these bottleneck without being wildly out of mandate? I could make a case for memory on low pe or sk square on holdco dynamic. Haven’t found anything in the space at a reasonable multiple otherwise

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4 months ago

@jukan05 Have you seen any charts to show forecasted supply vs forecasted demand? Recognize under supply until 2028 but unclear if post 2028 we’ll have massive over supply

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10 months ago

@GreystoneCap @InvestSpecial Point is that with price at 80/mt they did 30-40m higher ufcf than this year at 170/mt so something has fundamentally changed and the trough figure is likely much lower today

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10 months ago

@HalvioCapital @antizykliker Yes but the sotp already counts the $1b from that hypothetical sale though in “reit”. Whether that is “reit” through ownership today or “cash” post full sale makes no difference to what the retailer value. Imagine full divestiture and run sotp from there- will decrease by 670m.

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10 months ago

@HalvioCapital @antizykliker When you add full value of reit to sotp (1.2b across retained $ cash) you r already counting the $67 that you subsequently deduct from the furniture p&l. furniture p&l should be burdened by 100% rent. For SOTP imagine 2 unrelated companies then add. V detailed write up (now own)

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a year ago

@CorneliaLake Great work on this. Curious as to build WC eg for 1Q25 I get $(110)-$(115) using BAMSEC CFS (depending if you inc. LT as NWC or not). High level - LTM EBITDA is $65m (cash EBITDA $50m), interest and taxes shouldn't be more than $30m yet LTM CFO= $(50m). When does that stabilize?