Just a Value Investor @JustValue48
My Substack https://t.co/0F4vNJo2x9 open.substack.com/pub/justavalue… Joined May 2021-
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Here is this week's special situations digest. 281 situations in activist campaigns, M&A/divestments, management changes, and other corporate events. Make sure to check it out
@finance_schmidt Interesting
@Floebertus Do you like the business?
@HalvioCapital Nice write up. It’s been on my watchlist
Rashee Rice finally understand what it feels like to get unexpectedly hit at a high rate of speed and have the man responsible leave the scene
His orders look to always involve fractional shares, so he is likely not doing manual orders and the stake is determined by something else (like kelly criterion or other). Lots of position sizes ranging from tiny to huge, meaning he could be covering all sides of the bets or he simply is betting according to edge. I think he's cross "time" arbing the btc mkts which is very profitable if you know the option value of btc price at x date. Then you just pick off prices that are wrong. Looking at his activity, he's obviously automated this. On Poly, there's lots of opps coz markets that are correlated - like "btc by dec 4th > 100k" & "btc by dec 5th > 100k" - become disrupted by the current retail betting base. As in, a bettor comes along and market orders "btc by dec 4th > 100k", crossing the spread so moving the price, but "dec 5th > 100k price" doesn't change because the retail bettor didn't cross the spread on that market, however they are obviously correlated mkts so at least 1 of the prices on either outcome has to be the wrong price. That would result in at least 1 +ev bet. This is like 1 out of 20 things i've thought of how to gain edge on polymarket, alas I have no coding skill so tradfi quants, you can have at it. PS: I manually put on a cross market arb @ 8% return ending in a month just now. Lots of opps there.
This trader has been blocked from all exchanges I have no other explanation for why he trades Bitcoin price predictions so successfully on Polymarket > Joined a month ago > 70.9% win rate > 1329 historical positions > $586k total profit And the most interesting thing is that
I’ve started messing around on Kalshi and it’s pretty easy to scalp trades
@joinyellowbrick I’ve had similar issues. It’s also funny how the value investing subreddit hates micro cap ideas
@DV_Situations Looks really good
My favorite part of ChatGPT deep research is looking through the links it uses. I tend to get more value out of the links it finds than the actual response.
Analyst: ... "𝘐𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢 𝘯𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘭𝘺?" CEO: "𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘥". 😆
@david_katunaric Brown noise for the win
@friedoystercult 😂 I never know how to write it without Elon getting mad
Anyone else having a problem with Su**t*ck? Every time I try to write something the website refreshes and removes what I added
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