🔹️Preliminary winter forecast is out. As JN.1 Pirola grows, it is forecast to push numbers up quickly in the coming weeks. There is a decent amount of uncertainty on how far JN.1 will penetrate our population's resistances, so a reasonable range for the peak is provided.
@JPWeiland Is it me or do theses waves alwsys peak at the same time? ~ January 12
@JPWeiland Great work JP, thanks for sharing. I wonder whether prior infections will give reduced protection vs “Pirola”, given its many mutations. Its sharp growth in the leading countries could be evidence of that. Might make for a higher peak?
@JPWeiland Can you do a larger one and place this on a scale with original recipe omicron and delta
@JPWeiland Unfortunately I don't understand the x-axis. Did something get mixed up or am I too stupid?
@JPWeiland Looks a bit worse than what I modeled 💀 but makes sense considering the most recent sequencing data