James E. Thorne @Interestedinbur
Chief Market Strategist @WellingtonAltus. PhD Econ. Astute, observations and conclusions. Personal views. Not investment advice. Please do your own research. Joined March 2013-
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Bitcoin is the complementary signal. It is a coiled spring because it captures two trades at once: demand for scarce, non-sovereign money, and anticipation of a much larger regulated digital-dollar ecosystem. Washington can regulate the perimeter of crypto, but it cannot manufac
Contentious thesis. Both President Trump and Prime Minster Carney are smart pragmatic businessmen. Businessman with those characteristics find ways to get deals done. That are win win. Have a great evening.
The Clarity Act. Bitcoin vs. Warren: Consensus Thinks Warren Will Hand Digital Finance to China. Consensus has made a habit of mistaking political noise for structural power. Its latest error is the conviction that Team Warren, the regulators, bank incumbents, and professiona
Iran Is China’s Hinge in the New Great Game Here is the thesis Wall Street, much of Washington, and the foreign-policy establishment are missing: Iran is China’s hinge in the new Great Game. The usual discussion is painfully narrow. Can Iran’s nuclear capacity be degraded?
CPI Roulette Is Not Monetary Policy Wall Street is addicted to the next CPI print. Every month, the same spectacle: analysts arguing over a tenth of a percentage point as if it reveals the whole economy. Yet they rarely ask the obvious question: How far above r* (the neutral
Bitcoin. Pullback to a previous high. Back to the upward sloping 200 week MA. Bitcoin is truly hated. Banking lobby fighting with all its might to make sure Clarity act will not pass. Think about it for one minute. Have a great weekend.
10,000 is no longer a heroic target for the S&P 500 The S&P 500, now close to 7,800, is routinely described as expensive. That diagnosis mistakes a high index level for excessive valuation. Markets are not priced against nostalgia for historical multiples. They are priced agains
Through Wall Street’s Looking-Glass Wall Street Is Still Betting on Decline Wall Street is wrong on inflation. It is wrong on AI. Above all, it is still pricing an America trapped in secular stagnation: supply-constrained, deindustrialised, energy-vulnerable and dependent on
The misplaced inflation fear. 2 yr Breakeven down close to 17% over the past year. Now sits at 2.16% The FFR should be at r* right now. Have a nice day.
My views on Gold, Bitcoin, Yen Carry Trade, S&P 500 10,000 target, and more. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/th… @BNNBloomberg
Contain Iran President Trump’s synthesis for Iran is containment. It rejects the two failures that have long trapped Washington: diplomacy that purchases only delay and escalation that risks an open-ended regional war.
The collapse of the CLARITY Act may look like a defeat for crypto. It is more likely a defeat for Congress. Senator Elizabeth Warren, the banking lobby and Republican holdouts may have won the immediate battle by blocking a federal market-structure framework for digital assets.
Bessent’s yen intervention just put currency debasement back on Wall Street’s radar. The market’s still treating Bitcoin like it’s dead money, waiting on Clarity Act passage to matter, it doesn’t need it. Gold and silver benefit here, sure. But the real convexity trade is Bitcoin
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