New 6 Week Forecast: 🔸The lull may be over sooner than most of us hoped in the US due to "FLiRT". Infections are expected to start rising again after bottoming out in late April. ⚠️Recent seq data has been poor, so timing and significance of FLiRT carries some uncertainty.
@JPWeiland Thanks JP! It looks like the bottom of the trough is ... [checks watch] mid-April. For those following along in Australia and elsewhere, JP's models are usually a fairly relevant guide to the shape of the wave wherever you are.
@JPWeiland Looks "mild", but ofc even just in Australia (assuming no effective public health action will be taken), that implies millions of (re)infections, hundreds of thousands of long COVID cases, thousands of chronic infections and deaths ...
@Mike_Honey_ @JPWeiland feeling like a hamster inside the wheel that never stops 😳 wave after wave after wave think I’ll crawl back under my doona and avoid being one of the millions about to be (re)infected ☹️
@d_ratcliffe @JPWeiland Our collective global course has set up a "variant evolution engine" of unprecedented scale, with billions of infections (millions of them chronic infections) every year or so. Therefore we can expect this pattern to continue until something changes. Hopefully for the good 🤞
@Mike_Honey_ @NjbBari3 @d_ratcliffe @JPWeiland The only way off the SARS-CoV-2 on-ramp is the precautionary principle & corollary, prevention better than cure through transmission⬇️ achieved via viral load⬇️ c̅ NPIs providing clean air like HEPA & ≥FFP2/N95 respirators (not "masks" FFS). img h/t @DGBassani & @GosiaGasperoPhD