Strictly4MyBitcoin @IBIT4Life

The main cause is what Strategy did to their cash reserve, the market thinks they're going to run out of cash Strive is in a tough spot right now, they have cash to sit and ride this out for 18 months If I'm in Strives shoes, I'm furious at Strategy for breaking trust in the market by squandering their cash reserve, now SATA is tanking even though Strive managed its risk appropriately as it told the market, yet because STRC is the much bigger player it's guilt by association In a brand-new industry, how do you criticize your bigger rival without hurting yourself? Strive probably can't do much except pay the daily and ride this out Stategy (Saylor) has broken trust with the market, I guess we'll see if this is serious or a higher Bitcoin price makes everyone forget

hopefully by then things are turned around, I like the bet The problem right now as I see it is the market is trying to force some type of liquation event with MSTR, but those of us that follow know that's not possible, IE, there will be no liquidation or conclusion at least in the near term

They wouldn't really have to sell that much each month to fund the dividends, it would be more about perception IF someday Bitcoin hits $1m and MSTR has managed to keep most of their stack, everyone will look back and laugh at the way they accumulated so much (the current narrative being Saylor changes the rules constantly in order to acquire more Bitcoin at any cost, with worries about dilution to MSTR) On the other hand, this could get pretty ugly if the Bitcoin price doesn't cooperate

Exactly. The market is pricing STRC like a long dated option with time decay. With 18 month cash reserve, it traded at par (18 month option). Now with a 7 month cash reserve, it's been repriced to $88-90 (7 month option) The market is starting to treat STRC like an option that might expire worthless. Imagine where this goes if we drop below $60k for several months and they can't raise cash. How does the market price STRC with only a few months of cash? Obviously they can sell bitcoin if they have to, but that sort of defeats the purpose and would be extremely dilutive I like what SATA is doing. Very simple to understand, no debt, and Strive seems to understand the importance of the cash reserve

@hillery_dan When there was an 18 month cash reserve it traded at $100 and the market seemed happy (18 month call option). After they paid the converts it became a 7 month cash reserve and is repriced at $90 (7 month call option) I applaud the $300 mil so 10 month now

I've listened to you talk about STRC on spaces many times and know you also trade options on stocks Think of STRC as an 18 month option on MSTR ability to pay the dividend (cash reserve). By paying down the converts and shrinking the cash reserve, STRC is now being repriced as an 7.5 month option on MSTR ability to pay the dividend (new cash reserve) Just like when you trade options, there's decay as you get closer to the expiration. To me, this explains the price on STRC. Even if the Bitcoin price recovers, you still have to pay future dividends with cash you promised the market you would have but now don't

I think switching to daily dividends changed the composition of who owns SATA, which began June 1. The hot money playing for a dividend payment and quick exit has left. New buyers aren't planning to go in and out for a nickel per share a day, we are likely longer term holders. The new money is sticky. The digital credit market is not mature, it's new and fragile. In a mature market, you could criticize your competition. In a new and fragile market, you can highlight things you are doing good. 1. Zero debt 2. 18 months cash for dividends (Jeff on risk management)

@LynAldenContact @PunterJeff SATA held until this morning. It's a fraction of the size of STRC. If Nvidia started going down hard, all the semiconductor stocks would to. That's the way I see it. The first flush June 5 SATA traded down to $92, today held a little higher at $92.88 as STRC went much lower

STRC traded down to $91 on June 5 and $82.53 today SATA traded down to $92 on June 5 and only down to $92.88 today, that's win I watched you talk about the pension background and Jeff the insurance background long before SATA was launched, before Jeff left his day job for Strive. There's a lesson in risk management here, cash reserve is key or the market starts to lose confidence (my opinion on what's happening to STRC)

@JoeCarlasare There's 5 hours of trading day left before a 3 day weekend. Testing $60k again almost feels inevitable The bottom has already fallen out of STRC and starting to happen to SATA

@dotkrueger @tomyoungjr @infraa_ Have any of the DeFi products using STRC that @saylor has been re-posting blown up? You know they're leveraged to the teeth thinking STRC couldn't drop below $90

Is STRC toxic or saylor? Compare to how Strive and SATA have run the past 6 months. I remember watching @PunterJeff on True North before he went to Strive. I liked his background in risk management and the insurance industry. I'm also impressed with @ColeMacro and his background with pensions. They retired the debt and have 18 months cash for dividends Saylor has put STRC in a position where the Bitcoin price needs to go up and it didn't have to be that way

@tomyoungjr How much of this is de-leveraging from DeFi that leveraged STRC up to the teeth because it couldn't drop below $90? (you know, the ones @saylor reposted)

@tomyoungjr @infraa_ Saylor has re-posted a lot of these DeFi products buying STRC How much STRC was leveraged to the teeth because it couldn't drop below $90? Are these liquidations?

@dotkrueger Look at SATA, how long can this hold with STRC imploding?

@dotkrueger How long can SATA hold up with STRC imploding? Aren't you impressed with SATA? Look at the bid-ask, doing what STRC is supposed to do

@ColeMacro @Strive The Schwab May div re-investment was clean

@ColeMacro @Strive Schwab is a mess figuring this out. And they took away the ability to to re-invest divs

@ColeMacro @Strive Schwab is not letting you re-invest dividends. This is new today, I've been able to re-invest prior divs