Fixed__Point @Fixed__Point
Believer in Jesus: Romans 10:13 Joined April 2009-
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Red flag today for SPX bulls
Most people treat VIX expiration like a reset -the book behind today is already bigger than the one going out Aug 19 carries ~872k of net customer call length Sep ~561k, Oct ~468k the weeklies between? ~29k combined the VIX is a monthly product- hedgers roll month to month
VIX settlement this morning the July book cash-settles to the opening print- and it's not small ~474k of net customer call length goes out with it dealers net short ~447k on the other side what settles today vs what's open behind it- with our data (short thread)
Big FLEX trades hitting the tape yesterday where nobody's looking- Large buy to open of Aug 7101/Sep 7201 Put 1x2 2500x and +5k Oct 7786 Calls sold 5,000 Aug 7101 puts bought 2,500 Sep 7201 puts bought 5,000 Oct 7786 calls vs short combos (hedged) (short thread)
doesn't always matter but probably more likely to matter right now these are like synthetic negative gamma knock-ins and obviously they are asymmetric right now my view of dealer positioning right now reinforces the risk coming from this cohort, since dealers are net short a lot of August tenor puts across 7200-7400 levels and probably not going to get anything back easily if the move starts happening into earnings and end of July FOMC lot of people will roll their eyes at how simple this is and that's fair, CTA triggers nearby don't automatically mean big sell but I'd pay attention right now
LIVE LOOK AT JULY OPEX POSITIONS RETWEET AND JOIN US FOR A BACKSTAGE PASS x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
it's not like I have favorites or anything but if I did it would probably include everyone who retweets these live streams
LIVE IN ONE HOUR DEALER HEDGING FLOWS JULY OPEX EDITION ✓ See actual SPX positions expiring today ✓ Learn how these positions influence the market youtube.com/live/qBuiwJw60…
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@VolatilityQ My condolences for your lose.
🚨APPLE AND MICRON GO HEAD TO HEAD IN AN ALL-OUT PUBLIC CLASH Apple CEO Tim Cook went public blaming memory suppliers for the company's latest price hikes. Micron's Chief Business Officer Sadana fired back, telling the WSJ that "certain customers" forced memory prices to rock-bottom levels during the last market downturn, preventing the Micron from investing as profits collapsed. Without naming Apple directly, Micron executive says those aggressive pricing demands starved the industry of investment, forcing today's global memory shortage and the very price hikes now hitting consumers.
NY Fed President John Williams: Inflation is "unquestionably elevated and well above" target, reflecting tariffs, energy, and AI-related demand for tech goods. "In coming quarters, however, I expect inflation readings to edge down" for several reasons: First, tariff effects "appear to have mostly played out." Second, a base case is that Hormuz related supply disruptions "are resolved relatively soon." Third, housing inflation should continue to slow. Fourth, there's no evidence of labor-market driven price pressures. The punchline: "Given the elevated level of inflation, it is imperative that we restore it to our 2% longer-run goal on a sustained basis. The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to do that." tellerwindow.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/25/the…
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says "19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, an all time record."
Today, we're proud to announce a strategic agreement with @AnthropicAI that spans memory and storage AI architecture design, supply and demand, enterprise adoption of Claude across Micron and a strategic investment in Anthropic’s Series H funding round. bit.ly/4ezJkL1
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