Dean Christians, СМТ @DeanChistains
All charts, signals, and related commentary are not investment advice. Senior Research Analyst - Sundial Capital Research sentimentrader.com/solutions Atlanta Joined October 2014-
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Industrial metals are reversing to long-term uptrends, which is interesting given the soft economic data.
Remember when banks were sleepy institutions? Not a single gap up open of >= 4.5% from 1969 to 1987, the pre-Greenspan era.
For only the 5th time since 1984, crude oil futures (CL1) cycled from a 3-month low to a 3-month high in fewer than 20 trading sessions. If history rhymes, subsequent CPI reports could be interesting.
According to Bianco Research, "eight stocks are keeping the YTD gains in the S&P 500 positive, while the other 492 stocks are collectively down on the year." Here's a chart that provides a historical perspective on the performance trends of S&P 500 stocks versus the index.
On Monday, the 1, 2, 4, and 10-month rate of change for the S&P 500 closed within a range of +1% to -1% for only the 3rd time since 1928.
The S&P 500 Technology sector has more stocks above their 200-day average than any other sector. And the spread between Tech and the S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since June 2020.
For the first time since 2019, the percentage of Treasury yields above their 200-day average cycled from 100% to 0%. After similar reversals, the 10-year yield declined 75% of the time over the next two months.
This chart provides some context on the recent mega-cap technology outperformance. It's almost on par with the flight-to-safety trade post the Covid crash.
New lows in the energy sector are expanding, and other market breadth indicators have deteriorated meaningfully. After similar conditions, energy sector returns were unfavorable over the next few months.
AMD joins some of the other Technology stocks on my screen that turned positive on the day. This chart contains a new absolute and relative trend-following system.
For only the 13th time in more than 70 years, over 90% of S&P 500 Financial sector stocks closed at a 1-month low. Interestingly, the percentage of S&P 500 Financial sector stocks closing at a 1-month low never exceeded 90% in the GFC. The max reading was 88%.
A friend asked if I would share the TCTM Composite Washout Model signals for prior bear markets. Check out the thread. 2007-08
For only the 6th time in more than 30 years, the 1-year futures spread as a % of the 1st contract price declined below -60% and reversed higher, triggering a buy signal for natural gas.
Hong Kong and several other Chinese-based ETFs and stocks triggered Investor's Business Daily Power Trend sell signals in the last few days. We may have seen a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news type of event on the reopening of the economy.
Here's a chart and trading statistics for a composite indicator that measures Investors' Business Daily Power Trend signals for Nasdaq 100 components. Similar to the country ETF composite I shared yesterday, one could use the indicator as a risk-on/off overlay.
Rather than using a duration count, this method measures an extension above the 200-day average for 138 sub-industry groups.